• 복식문화연구
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.35-49
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• 1999

The North Pacific Arctic region has common factors such as climatic characteristics and similarity of animals inhabiting the region. But also there exists geographical barriers that separates the tribes, different languages between the tribes. Although there are such differences, the clothing and ornaments of the region have relatively similar design and style. And above all possess the ‘spirit’. The tribes find the motives of such ‘spirit’ in human, animal, and soul\`s adaptability to change and in grafting such changes of forms into clothing. Especially as means of pleasing the animal that they vitally rely on, the tribes made the clothing as beautiful as the nature itself and they tried to connect the humans and animals universally through such clothing that have social, artistic, and enchantic conditions. The supply of raw materials of animals has elevated the creativeness one step up and the precise knowledge about fur show their superior techniques in making fur clothing. The use of gutskin has is an excellent example of such knowledge, which is very unique of the region. The gutskin has moderate plasticity and thus can be cut into all sorts of pattern. It harmonizes the functionality and practicality. The worldwide fashion trend is dominated by Western style, but the clothing of this region is still keeping its distinctive folk identity. At the start of the research, Kayak and itelmen tribes of Asia, the tribes of Amur river and Aleut and Tlingit tribes of North America seems to be geographically too far from each other and therefore searching theoretical background for common cultural origins seems to be immoderate. But lighting the fact that geographical adjacency that can be perceived through costume cultural history, is the most important factor that gives mutual influences to costume culture between the neighboring tribes, cultural relative similarity of the costume is influenced by geographical location rather than physical distance between the tribes. Also humans\` adaptability to their environment is seriously contaminated with man-made products. This study on North Pacific Arctic region is telling us many things about our past, present and future.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제24권7호
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• pp.893-905
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• 2015

This study analyzes the correlation between Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern index (WPI) in April during 1954-2008 and rainfall amounts in the same month. Based on the results, it is identified that there have been strong positive correlations between central China, Korea and the southwestern part of Japan in the East Asian region. Through differences between 10 positive WP years and 10 negative WP years selected from the April WPI excluding ENSO years, it is found that rainfall amounts increase in April of positive WP years due to the following characteristics. Increases in rainfall amounts are evident in the East Asian middle latitudinal region where the positive correlation between the two variables is the highest and this is because anomalous southwesterlies are strengthened in the East Asian middle latitudinal region due to the spatial pattern of a south-low-north-high anomalous pressure system centered on this region that is made by anomalous anticyclones centered on the southeastern side of the region and other anomalous anticyclones centered on the northeastern side of the region. In addition, anomalous westerlies (jet) are strengthen in the upper troposphere of the East Asian middle latitudinal region and as a result, anomalous upward flows are strengthened in this region and thus anomalous warm air temperatures are formed in the entire level of the troposphere in the region. In addition to atmospheric environments, anomalous warm sea surface temperatures are formed in the seas in the East Asian middle latitudinal region to help the rainfall amount increases in the East Asian middle latitudinal region.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.133-145
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• 2010

이 연구에서는 2009년 북서태평양 태풍활동의 특성과 이에 영향을 끼친 대기 순환장을 분석하였다. 2009년에 북서태평양에서는 평년(1979~2009 평균값: 25.8개)보다 적은 22개의 태풍이 발생했는데, 7~10월에 집중적으로 발생하였다. 태풍의 발생은 필리핀 북쪽 해역과 북서태평양 동쪽 지역에서 많았고, 발생한 태풍은 대기순환 흐름에 의해서 대부분 남중국해와 일본 동쪽으로 향했다. 상대적으로 동중국해와 우리나라로 접근하는 태풍은 적었다. 대기대순환 관점에서 보았을 때, 2009년 태풍활동은 엘니뇨 현상과 서태평양 지역의 평년보다 활발한 대류활동에 의해 유도된 대기순환에 의해 영향을 받았다. 잘 알려진 바와 같이, 엘니뇨 시기에는 열대 해수면 온도의 동서 경도에 의해 서태평양 적도 지역에서는 강한 서풍 아노말리가 유도되는데, 2009년에도 이들의 영향으로 북서태평양 몬순 기압골이 동쪽으로 크게 확장되었고, 태풍의 발생 위치도 평년보다 동쪽으로 치우쳤다. 또한, 서태평양 지역의 강한 대류활동으로부터 유도된 로스비파가 남중국해로부터 중위도로 전파되면서 남중국 지역에서는 지향류의 동풍 아노말리, 동중국해 및 한국 근처에서는 북서풍 아노말리, 일본 동쪽에서는 남서풍 아노말리가 연이어 나타났다. 이로 인해 태풍의 진로가 동중국해 및 한국으로 진행하지 못하고 남중국해와 일본 동쪽 해상으로 유도되었다. 결과적으로 우리나라는 최근 21년 만에 직접적으로 영향을 준 태풍이 없는 무태풍년으로 기록되었다. 2009년의 예와 같이 평년과 크게 다른 태풍의 활동과 관련 대규모 순환장 패턴을 분석하는 연구를 통해 앞으로 기후변화에 따른 동아시아에서 지역별 태풍 영향에 대한 예측성 향상에 도움을 줄 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.453-460
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• 2011

By performing a statistical change-point analysis of activities of the tropical cyclones (TCs) that have affected Korea (K-TCs), it was found that there was a significant change between 1983 and 1984. During the period of 1984-2004 (P2), more TCs migrated toward the west, recurved in the southwest, and affected Korea, compared to the period of 1965-1983 (P1). These changes for P2 were related to the southwestward expansion of the subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) and simultaneously elongation of its elliptical shape toward Korea. Because of these changes, the central pressure and lifetime of K-TC during P2 were deeper and longer, respectively, than figures for P1. This stronger K-TC intensity for P2 was related to the more southwestward genesis due to the southwestward expansion of the SWNPH. The weaker vertical wind shear environment during P2 was more favorable for K-TC to maintain a strong intensity in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.

• 대기
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.205-220
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• 2013

Upper ocean response to typhoon Ewiniar (0603) and its impact on the following typhoon Bilis (0604) are investigated using observational data and numerical experiments. Data used in this study are obtained from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS), ARGO, and satellite. Numerical simulations are conducted using 3-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model. Results show that when Ewiniar passes over the western North Pacific, unique oceanic responses are found at two places, One is in East China Sea near Taiwan and another is in the vicinity of IORS. The latter are characterized by a strong sea surface cooling (SSC), $6^{\circ}C$ and $11^{\circ}C$ in simulation and observation, under the condition of typhoon with a fast translation speed (8m $s^{-1}$) and lowering intensity (970 hPa). The record-breaking strong SSC is caused by the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water, which produces a strong vertical temperature gradient within a shallow depth of Yellow Sea. The former are also characterized by a strong SSC, $7.5^{\circ}C$ in simulation, with a additional cooling of $4.5^{\circ}C$ after a storm's passage mainly due to enhanced and maintained upwelling process by the resonance coupling of storm translation speed and the gravest mode internal wave phase speed. The numerical simulation reveals that the Ewiniar produced a unfavorable upper-ocean thermal condition, which eventually inhibited the intensification of the following typhoon Bilis. Statistics show that 9% of the typhoons in western North Pacific are influenced by cold wakes produced by a proceeding typhoon. These overall results demonstrate that upper ocean response to a typhoon even after the passage is also important factor to be considered for an accurate intensity prediction of a following typhoon with similar track.

• 대기
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.375-387
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• 2015

A Selected Multi-model CONsensus (SMCON) technique was developed and verified for the tropical cyclone track forecast in the western North Pacific. The SMCON forecasts were produced by averaging numerical model forecasts showing low 70% latest 6 h prediction errors among 21 models. In the homogeneous comparison for 54 tropical cyclones in 2013 and 2014, the SMCON improvement rate was higher than the other forecasts such as the Non-Selected Multi-model CONsensus (NSMCON) and other numerical models (i.e., GDAPS, GEPS, GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, ECMWF_H, ECMWF_EPS, JGSM, TEPS). However, the SMCON showed lower or similar improvement rate than a few forecasts including ECMWF_EPS forecasts at 96 h in 2013 and at 72 h in 2014 and the TEPS forecast at 120 h in 2013. Mean track errors of the SMCON for two year were smaller than the NSMCON and these differences were 0.4, 1.2, 5.9, 12.9, 8.2 km at 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-h respectively. The SMCON error distributions showed smaller central tendency than the NSMCON's except 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Similarly, the density for smaller track errors of the SMCON was higher than the NSMCON's except at 72-, 96-h forecast in 2013 in the kernel density estimation analysis. In addition, the NSMCON has lager range of errors above the third quantile and larger standard deviation than the SMCON's at 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Also, the SMCON showed smaller bias than ECMWF_H for the cross track bias. Thus, we concluded that the SMCON could provide more reliable information on the tropical cyclone track forecast by reflecting the real-time performance of the numerical models.

• 대기
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.291-303
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• 2018

In this study, a new consensus technique for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in the western North Pacific was developed. The most important feature of the present consensus model is to select and combine the guidance numerical models with the best performance in the previous years based on various evaluation criteria and averaging methods. Specifically, the performance of the guidance models was evaluated using both the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient for each forecast lead time, and the number of the numerical models used for the consensus model was not fixed. In averaging multiple models, both simple and weighted methods are used. These approaches are important because that the performance of the available guidance models differs according to forecast lead time and is changing every year. In particular, this study develops both a multi-consensus model (M-CON), which constructs the best consensus models with the lowest error for each forecast lead time, and a single best consensus model (S-CON) having the lowest 72-hour cumulative mean error, through on training process. The evaluation results of the selected consensus models for the training and forecast periods reveal that the M-CON and S-CON outperform the individual best-performance guidance models. In particular, the M-CON showed the best overall performance, having advantages in the early stages of prediction. This study finally suggests that forecaster needs to use the latest evaluation results of the guidance models every year rather than rely on the well-known accuracy of models for a long time to reduce prediction error.

• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2016

Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.205-214
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• 2011

정밀조석모의를 위한 유한요소 격자가 황해 영역에서 절점밀집도 14 K, 52 K 및 211 K 등으로 세련화되어 구축되었으며, 북서태평양을 포함하는 광역에 대해 57K의 절점을 갖는 격자체계가 구축되었다. 수치실험은 32개의 병렬프로세서에서 pADCIRC v 49.21 모형을 이용하여 수행하였다. 조석모의는 YS-G52K, YS-G211K 격자에서 KorBathy30s와 ETOPO1 수심자료를 적용하고, FES2004로부터 추출된 4 분조를 개방경계에 적용하여 모의한 결과 관측치와는 진폭에서 RMS오차 0.138 m, 위상은 RMS오차 14.80 deg로 이전 황해 연구에 비해 개선된 결과가 나타났다. 북서태평양으로 확장된 영역인 NWP-G57K 격자의 개방경계에서 8 분조를 정의하여 모의한 결과 황해 조석모의 결과와 유사한 매우 만족스러운 결과가 도출되었다.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.511-519
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• 2022

Given the significant social and economic impact caused by heat waves, there is a pressing need to predict them with high accuracy and reliability. In this study, we analyzed the real-time forecast data from six models constituting the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project, to elucidate the key mechanisms contributing to the prediction of the recent record-breaking Korean heat wave event in 2018. Weekly anomalies were first obtained by subtracting the 2017-2020 mean values for both S2S model simulations and observations. By comparing four Korean heat-wave-related indices from S2S models to the observed data, we aimed to identify key climate processes affecting prediction accuracy. The results showed that superior performance at predicting the 2018 Korean heat wave was achieved when the model showed better prediction performance for the anomalous anticyclonic activity in the upper troposphere of Eastern Europe and the cyclonic circulation over the Western North Pacific (WNP) region compared to the observed data. Furthermore, the development of upper-tropospheric anticyclones in Eastern Europe was closely related to global warming and the occurrence of La Niña events. The anomalous cyclonic flow in the WNP region coincided with enhancements in Madden-Julian oscillation phases 4-6. Our results indicate that, for the accurate prediction of heat waves, such as the 2018 Korean heat wave, it is imperative for the S2S models to realistically reproduce the variabilities over the Eastern Europe and WNP regions.