• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.331-339
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• 2018

Worldwide growth in hydrocarbon and energy demand is driving the oil and gas companies to drill more wells in complex situations such as areas with high-pressure, high-temperature conditions. As a result, in recent years the number of wells in these conditions have been increased significantly. Wellbore instability is one of the main issues during the drilling operation especially for directional and horizontal wells. Many researchers have studied the wellbore stability in complex situations and developed mathematical models to mitigate the instability problems before drilling operation. In this work, a fully coupled thermoporoelastic model is developed to study the well stability in high-pressure, high-temperature conditions. The results show that the performance of the model is highly dependent on the truly evaluated rock mechanical properties. It is noted that the rock mechanical properties should be evaluated at elevated pressures and temperatures. However, in many works, this is skipped and the mechanical properties, which are evaluated at room conditions, are entered into the model. Therefore, an accurate stability analysis of high-pressure, high-temperature wells is achieved by measuring the rock mechanical properties at elevated pressures and temperatures, as the difference between the model outputs is significant.