• Title/Summary/Keyword: weibull analysis

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Nonparametric Bayesian estimation on the exponentiated inverse Weibull distribution with record values

  • Seo, Jung In;Kim, Yongku
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.611-622
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    • 2014
  • The inverse Weibull distribution (IWD) is the complementary Weibull distribution and plays an important role in many application areas. In Bayesian analysis, Soland's method can be considered to avoid computational complexities. One limitation of this approach is that parameters of interest are restricted to a finite number of values. This paper introduce nonparametric Bayesian estimator in the context of record statistics values from the exponentiated inverse Weibull distribution (EIWD). In stead of Soland's conjugate piror, stick-breaking prior is considered and the corresponding Bayesian estimators under the squared error loss function (quadratic loss) and LINEX loss function are obtained and compared with other estimators. The results may be of interest especially when only record values are stored.

An alternative approach to extreme value analysis for design purposes

  • Bardsley, Earl
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.201-201
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    • 2016
  • The asymptotic extreme value distributions of maxima are a natural choice when designing against future extreme events like flood peaks or wave heights, given a stationary time series. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is often utilised in this context because it is seen as a convenient single expression for extreme event analysis. However, the GEV has a drawback because the location of the distribution bound relative to the data is a discontinuous function of the GEV shape parameter. That is, for annual maxima approximated by the Gumbel distribution, the data is also consistent with a GEV distribution with an upper bound (no lower bound) or a GEV distribution with a lower bound (no upper bound). A more consistent single extreme value expression for design purposes is proposed as the Weibull distribution of smallest extremes, as applied to transformed annual maxima. The Weibull distribution limit holds here for sufficiently large sample sizes, irrespective of the extreme value domain of attraction applicable to the untransformed maxima. The Gumbel, Type 2, and Type 3 extreme value distributions thus become redundant, together with the GEV, because in reality there is only a single asymptotic extreme value distribution required for design purposes - the Weibull distribution of minima as applied to transformed maxima. An illustrative synthetic example is given showing transformed maxima from the normal distribution approaching the Weibull limit much faster than the untransformed sample maxima approach the normal distribution Gumbel limit. Some New Zealand examples are given with the Weibull distribution being applied to reciprocal transformations of annual flood maxima, where the untransformed maxima follow apparently different extreme value distributions.

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Reliability Analysis and Fatigue Models of Concrete under Flexural or Split Tensional Cyclic Loadings (휨 또는 쪼갬인장 반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 신뢰성 해석과 피로모델 제안)

  • Kim Dong-Ho;Sim Do-Sik;Kim Sung-Hwan;Yun Kyong-Ku
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.16 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2004
  • This paper compares the fatigue behaviors of concretes subjected to flexural and split-tensional loadings, and proposes the fatigue reliability models based on experimental results and reliability analysis. The fatigue tests were performed for the specimens of $150 mm{\times}75 mm$ split tensional cylinders and $150 mm{\times}150 mm{\times}550 mm$ flexural beams under constant loadings at three levels (70, 80 and $90\%$) with 0.1 stress ratio, 20 Hz loading speed and sine wave. The reliability analysis on fatigue data was based on Weibull distribution of two-parameters. From fatigue test results, two criteria were proposed to reject the experimental fatigue data because of statistical variation of concrete fatigue data. Two parameters ($\alpha$and u) of Weibull distribution were obtained using graphical method, moment method and maximum likelihood method. The probability density function(P.D.F) and cumulative distribution function(C.D.F) of the Weibull distribution for fatigue life of pavement concrete were derived for various stress levels using parameters, $\alpha$ and u. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable at $5\%$ level of significance. Based on reliability analysis, a fatigue model for pavement concrete was proposed and compared from existing models.

A Study on Standardization of Fracture Strength of Secondary Barrier of FSB in MARK-III LNG CCS using Weibull Distribution (Weibull 통계분석을 이용한 MARK-III LNG CCS의 2차 방벽 FSB 파단강도 표준화 연구)

  • Jeong, Yeon-Jae;Kim, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jeong-Dae;Oh, Hoon-Gyu;Kim, Yong-Tai;Park, Seong-Bo;Lee, Jae-Myung
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the fracture strength of Flexible Secondary Barrier (FSB) composites was standardized by conducting a distribution analysis of the fracture probability, considering that the fracture strength of FSB composites such as glass fiber reinforced composites is relatively large. As the mechanical performance of FSB composites varies with the fiber direction, 20 replicate uniaxial tensile tests were performed for different temperatures ranging from the ambient to cryogenic conditions, considering the actual operating environment of liquefied natural gas. For the probability statistical analysis, the Weibull distribution analysis derived from the weakest link theory was used, considering the large variance in the fracture strength and brittle fracture behavior. The results of the Weibull distribution analysis were used to calculate the standard fracture strength of the FSB composites for different fiber directions. The findings can help ensure the reliability of the FSB mechanical properties in different fiber directions in the design of the secondary barrier and structural analyses.

Field Reliability Analysis of S-Bond of AF Track Circuit for Automatic Train Control System (자동열차제어장치 AF궤도회로 S-BOND의 사용신뢰도 분석)

  • Choi, Kyu-Hyoung;Rho, Young-Whan
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.308-313
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents a reliability analysis of S-bonds for AF track circuits, which detect train movement and transmit a speed control signal to the train. Field survey shows that S-bonds are exposed to very large vibrations transferred from rail, and suffer from frequent failures when they were installed on ballasted track. We collected the time-to-failure data of S-bonds from the maintenance field of Seoul metro line 2, and made a parametric approach to estimate the statistical distribution that fits the time-to-failure data. The analysis shows that S-bonds have time-to-failure characteristics described by Weibull distribution. The estimated shape parameter of Weibull distribution is 1.1, which means the distribution has constant failure rate characteristics like exponential distribution. The reliability function, hazard function, percentiles and mean lifetime are derived for maintenance support.

Evaluating the Output of Small-size Wind Power Generators Using Weibull Data (와이블데이터를 이용한 소형풍력발전기 출력에 대한 평가)

  • You, Ki-Pyo;Kim, Young-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2012
  • This study purposed to predict wind energy for small size wind power generators at 50m above the ground in each area using mean wind speed data for 10 minutes collected from 2001 to 2011 by meteorological data in large cities having over 60% of 15 story (50m) or higher apartments including Seoul, Daejeon, Gwangju and Daegu representing the inland region, and Busan, Incheon and Ulsan representing the coastal region. In the results of analysis, we confirmed close agree ment between observatory weather data and probability density distribution obtained using Weibull's parameters, and this suggests that Weibull's parameter is applicable to the estimation of wind energy. Hourly output energy using the mean wind speed for 10 minutes and output energy obtained from Weibull's parameter showed an error less than 5%, and thus it was found that wind energy can be evaluated using Weibull's modulus.

Evaluation of Insulating Reliability in Epoxy Composites using Dielectric Breakdown Data (절연 파괴 데이터를 이용한 에폭시 복합체의 절연 신뢰도 평가)

  • Park, Geon-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.114-118
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    • 2005
  • In this study, the DC dielectric breakdown of epoxy composites used for molding material was experimented and then its data were simulated by Weibull distribution equation. From the analysis of Weibull distribution, it was confirmed that as the allowed breakdown probability was given by 0.1[%], the applied field value needed to be under 21.5[kV/mm].

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Empirical modelling approaches to modelling failures

  • Baik, Jaiwook;Jo, Jinnam
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2013
  • Modelling of failures is an important element of reliability modelling. Empirical modelling approach suitable for complex item is explored in this paper. First step of the empirical modelling approach is to plot hazard function, density function, Weibull probability plot as well as cumulative intensity function to see which model fits best for the given data. Next step of the empirical modelling approach is select appropriate model for the data and fit the parametric model accordingly and estimate the parameters.

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Evaluation of flexural properties and reliability with photo-curing 3D printing resin according to the printing orientations (광경화성 3D 프린팅 레진의 출력각도에 따른 굽힘 특성과 신뢰성 평가)

  • Im, Yong-Woon;Song, Doo-Bin;Hwang, Seong-Sig;Kim, Sa-Hak;Han, Man-So
    • Journal of Technologic Dentistry
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aimed to compare the flexural properties and perform the Weibull analysis of photo-curing three-dimensional (3D) printing resin. Methods: Photo-curing temporary resin (3D polymer) was used as a printing resin. Specimens (65 × 10 × 3.3 ㎣) were prepared following the ISO 20975-1 guidelines and according to the different printing orientations using a digital light processing 3D printer (D2 120; Dentium). The flexural strength (FS), flexural modulus, and work of fracture (WOF) were measured using a universal testing machine (Instron 3344; Instron) at a crosshead speed of 5 mm/min. Results: In this study, the 0° orientation exhibited higher FS and WOF than the 45° orientation. Significant differences were found among the printing orientations (p<0.05). Specimens printed at the 0° orientation were the most accurate. In the Weibull analysis, 0° showed the greatest Weibull modulus (m), which represents a higher reliability. Conclusion: 3D printing should be selected and used by considering flexural properties, size accuracy, and reliability.

Estimation of Suitable Methodology for Determining Weibull Parameters for the Vortex Shedding Analysis of Synovial Fluid

  • Singh, Nishant Kumar;Sarkar, A.;Deo, Anandita;Gautam, Kirti;Rai, S.K.
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2016
  • Weibull distribution with two parameters, shape (k) and scale (s) parameters are used to model the fatigue failure analysis due to periodic vortex shedding of the synovial fluid in knee joints. In order to determine the later parameter, a suitable statistical model is required for velocity distribution of synovial fluid flow. Hence, wide applicability of Weibull distribution in life testing and reliability analysis can be applied to describe the probability distribution of synovial fluid flow velocity. In this work, comparisons of three most widely used methods for estimating Weibull parameters are carried out; i.e. the least square estimation method (LSEM), maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the method of moment (MOM), to study fatigue failure of bone joint due to periodic vortex shedding of synovial fluid. The performances of these methods are compared through the analysis of computer generated synovial fluidflow velocity distribution in the physiological range. Significant values for the (k) and (s) parameters are obtained by comparing these methods. The criterions such as root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination ($R^2$), maximum error between the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and the chi square tests are used for the comparison of the suitability of these methods. The results show that maximum likelihood method performs well for most of the cases studied and hence recommended.