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Empirical Analysis on Bitcoin Price Change by Consumer, Industry and Macro-Economy Variables (비트코인 가격 변화에 관한 실증분석: 소비자, 산업, 그리고 거시변수를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.195-220
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

KNU Korean Sentiment Lexicon: Bi-LSTM-based Method for Building a Korean Sentiment Lexicon (Bi-LSTM 기반의 한국어 감성사전 구축 방안)

  • Park, Sang-Min;Na, Chul-Won;Choi, Min-Seong;Lee, Da-Hee;On, Byung-Won
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.219-240
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    • 2018
  • Sentiment analysis, which is one of the text mining techniques, is a method for extracting subjective content embedded in text documents. Recently, the sentiment analysis methods have been widely used in many fields. As good examples, data-driven surveys are based on analyzing the subjectivity of text data posted by users and market researches are conducted by analyzing users' review posts to quantify users' reputation on a target product. The basic method of sentiment analysis is to use sentiment dictionary (or lexicon), a list of sentiment vocabularies with positive, neutral, or negative semantics. In general, the meaning of many sentiment words is likely to be different across domains. For example, a sentiment word, 'sad' indicates negative meaning in many fields but a movie. In order to perform accurate sentiment analysis, we need to build the sentiment dictionary for a given domain. However, such a method of building the sentiment lexicon is time-consuming and various sentiment vocabularies are not included without the use of general-purpose sentiment lexicon. In order to address this problem, several studies have been carried out to construct the sentiment lexicon suitable for a specific domain based on 'OPEN HANGUL' and 'SentiWordNet', which are general-purpose sentiment lexicons. However, OPEN HANGUL is no longer being serviced and SentiWordNet does not work well because of language difference in the process of converting Korean word into English word. There are restrictions on the use of such general-purpose sentiment lexicons as seed data for building the sentiment lexicon for a specific domain. In this article, we construct 'KNU Korean Sentiment Lexicon (KNU-KSL)', a new general-purpose Korean sentiment dictionary that is more advanced than existing general-purpose lexicons. The proposed dictionary, which is a list of domain-independent sentiment words such as 'thank you', 'worthy', and 'impressed', is built to quickly construct the sentiment dictionary for a target domain. Especially, it constructs sentiment vocabularies by analyzing the glosses contained in Standard Korean Language Dictionary (SKLD) by the following procedures: First, we propose a sentiment classification model based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM). Second, the proposed deep learning model automatically classifies each of glosses to either positive or negative meaning. Third, positive words and phrases are extracted from the glosses classified as positive meaning, while negative words and phrases are extracted from the glosses classified as negative meaning. Our experimental results show that the average accuracy of the proposed sentiment classification model is up to 89.45%. In addition, the sentiment dictionary is more extended using various external sources including SentiWordNet, SenticNet, Emotional Verbs, and Sentiment Lexicon 0603. Furthermore, we add sentiment information about frequently used coined words and emoticons that are used mainly on the Web. The KNU-KSL contains a total of 14,843 sentiment vocabularies, each of which is one of 1-grams, 2-grams, phrases, and sentence patterns. Unlike existing sentiment dictionaries, it is composed of words that are not affected by particular domains. The recent trend on sentiment analysis is to use deep learning technique without sentiment dictionaries. The importance of developing sentiment dictionaries is declined gradually. However, one of recent studies shows that the words in the sentiment dictionary can be used as features of deep learning models, resulting in the sentiment analysis performed with higher accuracy (Teng, Z., 2016). This result indicates that the sentiment dictionary is used not only for sentiment analysis but also as features of deep learning models for improving accuracy. The proposed dictionary can be used as a basic data for constructing the sentiment lexicon of a particular domain and as features of deep learning models. It is also useful to automatically and quickly build large training sets for deep learning models.

Building a Korean Sentiment Lexicon Using Collective Intelligence (집단지성을 이용한 한글 감성어 사전 구축)

  • An, Jungkook;Kim, Hee-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2015
  • Recently, emerging the notion of big data and social media has led us to enter data's big bang. Social networking services are widely used by people around the world, and they have become a part of major communication tools for all ages. Over the last decade, as online social networking sites become increasingly popular, companies tend to focus on advanced social media analysis for their marketing strategies. In addition to social media analysis, companies are mainly concerned about propagating of negative opinions on social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as e-commerce sites. The effect of online word of mouth (WOM) such as product rating, product review, and product recommendations is very influential, and negative opinions have significant impact on product sales. This trend has increased researchers' attention to a natural language processing, such as a sentiment analysis. A sentiment analysis, also refers to as an opinion mining, is a process of identifying the polarity of subjective information and has been applied to various research and practical fields. However, there are obstacles lies when Korean language (Hangul) is used in a natural language processing because it is an agglutinative language with rich morphology pose problems. Therefore, there is a lack of Korean natural language processing resources such as a sentiment lexicon, and this has resulted in significant limitations for researchers and practitioners who are considering sentiment analysis. Our study builds a Korean sentiment lexicon with collective intelligence, and provides API (Application Programming Interface) service to open and share a sentiment lexicon data with the public (www.openhangul.com). For the pre-processing, we have created a Korean lexicon database with over 517,178 words and classified them into sentiment and non-sentiment words. In order to classify them, we first identified stop words which often quite likely to play a negative role in sentiment analysis and excluded them from our sentiment scoring. In general, sentiment words are nouns, adjectives, verbs, adverbs as they have sentimental expressions such as positive, neutral, and negative. On the other hands, non-sentiment words are interjection, determiner, numeral, postposition, etc. as they generally have no sentimental expressions. To build a reliable sentiment lexicon, we have adopted a concept of collective intelligence as a model for crowdsourcing. In addition, a concept of folksonomy has been implemented in the process of taxonomy to help collective intelligence. In order to make up for an inherent weakness of folksonomy, we have adopted a majority rule by building a voting system. Participants, as voters were offered three voting options to choose from positivity, negativity, and neutrality, and the voting have been conducted on one of the largest social networking sites for college students in Korea. More than 35,000 votes have been made by college students in Korea, and we keep this voting system open by maintaining the project as a perpetual study. Besides, any change in the sentiment score of words can be an important observation because it enables us to keep track of temporal changes in Korean language as a natural language. Lastly, our study offers a RESTful, JSON based API service through a web platform to make easier support for users such as researchers, companies, and developers. Finally, our study makes important contributions to both research and practice. In terms of research, our Korean sentiment lexicon plays an important role as a resource for Korean natural language processing. In terms of practice, practitioners such as managers and marketers can implement sentiment analysis effectively by using Korean sentiment lexicon we built. Moreover, our study sheds new light on the value of folksonomy by combining collective intelligence, and we also expect to give a new direction and a new start to the development of Korean natural language processing.

Improving the Accuracy of Document Classification by Learning Heterogeneity (이질성 학습을 통한 문서 분류의 정확성 향상 기법)

  • Wong, William Xiu Shun;Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.21-44
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, the rapid development of internet technology and the popularization of smart devices have resulted in massive amounts of text data. Those text data were produced and distributed through various media platforms such as World Wide Web, Internet news feeds, microblog, and social media. However, this enormous amount of easily obtained information is lack of organization. Therefore, this problem has raised the interest of many researchers in order to manage this huge amount of information. Further, this problem also required professionals that are capable of classifying relevant information and hence text classification is introduced. Text classification is a challenging task in modern data analysis, which it needs to assign a text document into one or more predefined categories or classes. In text classification field, there are different kinds of techniques available such as K-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes Algorithm, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Artificial Neural Network. However, while dealing with huge amount of text data, model performance and accuracy becomes a challenge. According to the type of words used in the corpus and type of features created for classification, the performance of a text classification model can be varied. Most of the attempts are been made based on proposing a new algorithm or modifying an existing algorithm. This kind of research can be said already reached their certain limitations for further improvements. In this study, aside from proposing a new algorithm or modifying the algorithm, we focus on searching a way to modify the use of data. It is widely known that classifier performance is influenced by the quality of training data upon which this classifier is built. The real world datasets in most of the time contain noise, or in other words noisy data, these can actually affect the decision made by the classifiers built from these data. In this study, we consider that the data from different domains, which is heterogeneous data might have the characteristics of noise which can be utilized in the classification process. In order to build the classifier, machine learning algorithm is performed based on the assumption that the characteristics of training data and target data are the same or very similar to each other. However, in the case of unstructured data such as text, the features are determined according to the vocabularies included in the document. If the viewpoints of the learning data and target data are different, the features may be appearing different between these two data. In this study, we attempt to improve the classification accuracy by strengthening the robustness of the document classifier through artificially injecting the noise into the process of constructing the document classifier. With data coming from various kind of sources, these data are likely formatted differently. These cause difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms because they are not developed to recognize different type of data representation at one time and to put them together in same generalization. Therefore, in order to utilize heterogeneous data in the learning process of document classifier, we apply semi-supervised learning in our study. However, unlabeled data might have the possibility to degrade the performance of the document classifier. Therefore, we further proposed a method called Rule Selection-Based Ensemble Semi-Supervised Learning Algorithm (RSESLA) to select only the documents that contributing to the accuracy improvement of the classifier. RSESLA creates multiple views by manipulating the features using different types of classification models and different types of heterogeneous data. The most confident classification rules will be selected and applied for the final decision making. In this paper, three different types of real-world data sources were used, which are news, twitter and blogs.

Perception and Appraisal of Urban Park Users Using Text Mining of Google Maps Review - Cases of Seoul Forest, Boramae Park, Olympic Park - (구글맵리뷰 텍스트마이닝을 활용한 공원 이용자의 인식 및 평가 - 서울숲, 보라매공원, 올림픽공원을 대상으로 -)

  • Lee, Ju-Kyung;Son, Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.15-29
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    • 2021
  • The study aims to grasp the perception and appraisal of urban park users through text analysis. This study used Google review data provided by Google Maps. Google Maps Review is an online review platform that provides information evaluating locations through social media and provides an understanding of locations from the perspective of general reviewers and regional guides who are registered as members of Google Maps. The study determined if the Google Maps Reviews were useful for extracting meaningful information about the user perceptions and appraisals for parks management plans. The study chose three urban parks in Seoul, South Korea; Seoul Forest, Boramae Park, and Olympic Park. Review data for each of these three parks were collected via web crawling using Python. Through text analysis, the keywords and network structure characteristics for each park were analyzed. The text was analyzed, as were park ratings, and the analysis compared the reviews of residents and foreign tourists. The common keywords found in the review comments for the three parks were "walking", "bicycle", "rest" and "picnic" for activities, "family", "child" and "dogs" for accompanying types, and "playground" and "walking trail" for park facilities. Looking at the characteristics of each park, Seoul Forest shows many outdoor activities based on nature, while the lack of parking spaces and congestion on weekends negatively impacted users. Boramae Park has the appearance of a city park, with various facilities providing numerous activities, but reviewers often cited the park's complexity and the negative aspects in terms of dog walking groups. At Olympic Park, large-scale complex facilities and cultural events were frequently mentioned, emphasizing its entertainment functions. Google Maps Review can function as useful data to identify parks' overall users' experiences and general feelings. Compared to data from other social media sites, Google Maps Review's data provides ratings and understanding factors, including user satisfaction and dissatisfaction.

An Analysis of the Internal Marketing Impact on the Market Capitalization Fluctuation Rate based on the Online Company Reviews from Jobplanet (직원을 위한 내부마케팅이 기업의 시가 총액 변동률에 미치는 영향 분석: 잡플래닛 기업 리뷰를 중심으로)

  • Kichul Choi;Sang-Yong Tom Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.39-62
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    • 2018
  • Thanks to the growth of computing power and the recent development of data analytics, researchers have started to work on the data produced by users through the Internet or social media. This study is in line with these recent research trends and attempts to adopt data analytical techniques. We focus on the impact of "internal marketing" factors on firm performance, which is typically studied through survey methodologies. We looked into the job review platform Jobplanet (www.jobplanet.co.kr), which is a website where employees and former employees anonymously review companies and their management. With web crawling processes, we collected over 40K data points and performed morphological analysis to classify employees' reviews for internal marketing data. We then implemented econometric analysis to see the relationship between internal marketing and market capitalization. Contrary to the findings of extant survey studies, internal marketing is positively related to a firm's market capitalization only within a limited area. In most of the areas, the relationships are negative. Particularly, female-friendly environment and human resource development (HRD) are the areas exhibiting positive relations with market capitalization in the manufacturing industry. In the service industry, most of the areas, such as employ welfare and work-life balance, are negatively related with market capitalization. When firm size is small (or the history is short), female-friendly environment positively affect firm performance. On the contrary, when firm size is big (or the history is long), most of the internal marketing factors are either negative or insignificant. We explain the theoretical contributions and managerial implications with these results.

SKU recommender system for retail stores that carry identical brands using collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering (협업 필터링 및 하이브리드 필터링을 이용한 동종 브랜드 판매 매장간(間) 취급 SKU 추천 시스템)

  • Joe, Denis Yongmin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.77-110
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the diversification and individualization of consumption patterns through the web and mobile devices based on the Internet have been rapid. As this happens, the efficient operation of the offline store, which is a traditional distribution channel, has become more important. In order to raise both the sales and profits of stores, stores need to supply and sell the most attractive products to consumers in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of research on which SKUs, out of many products, can increase sales probability and reduce inventory costs. In particular, if a company sells products through multiple in-store stores across multiple locations, it would be helpful to increase sales and profitability of stores if SKUs appealing to customers are recommended. In this study, the recommender system (recommender system such as collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering), which has been used for personalization recommendation, is suggested by SKU recommendation method of a store unit of a distribution company that handles a homogeneous brand through a plurality of sales stores by country and region. We calculated the similarity of each store by using the purchase data of each store's handling items, filtering the collaboration according to the sales history of each store by each SKU, and finally recommending the individual SKU to the store. In addition, the store is classified into four clusters through PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and cluster analysis (Clustering) using the store profile data. The recommendation system is implemented by the hybrid filtering method that applies the collaborative filtering in each cluster and measured the performance of both methods based on actual sales data. Most of the existing recommendation systems have been studied by recommending items such as movies and music to the users. In practice, industrial applications have also become popular. In the meantime, there has been little research on recommending SKUs for each store by applying these recommendation systems, which have been mainly dealt with in the field of personalization services, to the store units of distributors handling similar brands. If the recommendation method of the existing recommendation methodology was 'the individual field', this study expanded the scope of the store beyond the individual domain through a plurality of sales stores by country and region and dealt with the store unit of the distribution company handling the same brand SKU while suggesting a recommendation method. In addition, if the existing recommendation system is limited to online, it is recommended to apply the data mining technique to develop an algorithm suitable for expanding to the store area rather than expanding the utilization range offline and analyzing based on the existing individual. The significance of the results of this study is that the personalization recommendation algorithm is applied to a plurality of sales outlets handling the same brand. A meaningful result is derived and a concrete methodology that can be constructed and used as a system for actual companies is proposed. It is also meaningful that this is the first attempt to expand the research area of the academic field related to the existing recommendation system, which was focused on the personalization domain, to a sales store of a company handling the same brand. From 05 to 03 in 2014, the number of stores' sales volume of the top 100 SKUs are limited to 52 SKUs by collaborative filtering and the hybrid filtering method SKU recommended. We compared the performance of the two recommendation methods by totaling the sales results. The reason for comparing the two recommendation methods is that the recommendation method of this study is defined as the reference model in which offline collaborative filtering is applied to demonstrate higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The results of this model are compared with the Hybrid filtering method, which is a model that reflects the characteristics of the offline store view. The proposed method showed a higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The proposed method was proved by using actual sales data of large Korean apparel companies. In this study, we propose a method to extend the recommendation system of the individual level to the group level and to efficiently approach it. In addition to the theoretical framework, which is of great value.

A Proposal of a Keyword Extraction System for Detecting Social Issues (사회문제 해결형 기술수요 발굴을 위한 키워드 추출 시스템 제안)

  • Jeong, Dami;Kim, Jaeseok;Kim, Gi-Nam;Heo, Jong-Uk;On, Byung-Won;Kang, Mijung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2013
  • To discover significant social issues such as unemployment, economy crisis, social welfare etc. that are urgent issues to be solved in a modern society, in the existing approach, researchers usually collect opinions from professional experts and scholars through either online or offline surveys. However, such a method does not seem to be effective from time to time. As usual, due to the problem of expense, a large number of survey replies are seldom gathered. In some cases, it is also hard to find out professional persons dealing with specific social issues. Thus, the sample set is often small and may have some bias. Furthermore, regarding a social issue, several experts may make totally different conclusions because each expert has his subjective point of view and different background. In this case, it is considerably hard to figure out what current social issues are and which social issues are really important. To surmount the shortcomings of the current approach, in this paper, we develop a prototype system that semi-automatically detects social issue keywords representing social issues and problems from about 1.3 million news articles issued by about 10 major domestic presses in Korea from June 2009 until July 2012. Our proposed system consists of (1) collecting and extracting texts from the collected news articles, (2) identifying only news articles related to social issues, (3) analyzing the lexical items of Korean sentences, (4) finding a set of topics regarding social keywords over time based on probabilistic topic modeling, (5) matching relevant paragraphs to a given topic, and (6) visualizing social keywords for easy understanding. In particular, we propose a novel matching algorithm relying on generative models. The goal of our proposed matching algorithm is to best match paragraphs to each topic. Technically, using a topic model such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), we can obtain a set of topics, each of which has relevant terms and their probability values. In our problem, given a set of text documents (e.g., news articles), LDA shows a set of topic clusters, and then each topic cluster is labeled by human annotators, where each topic label stands for a social keyword. For example, suppose there is a topic (e.g., Topic1 = {(unemployment, 0.4), (layoff, 0.3), (business, 0.3)}) and then a human annotator labels "Unemployment Problem" on Topic1. In this example, it is non-trivial to understand what happened to the unemployment problem in our society. In other words, taking a look at only social keywords, we have no idea of the detailed events occurring in our society. To tackle this matter, we develop the matching algorithm that computes the probability value of a paragraph given a topic, relying on (i) topic terms and (ii) their probability values. For instance, given a set of text documents, we segment each text document to paragraphs. In the meantime, using LDA, we can extract a set of topics from the text documents. Based on our matching process, each paragraph is assigned to a topic, indicating that the paragraph best matches the topic. Finally, each topic has several best matched paragraphs. Furthermore, assuming there are a topic (e.g., Unemployment Problem) and the best matched paragraph (e.g., Up to 300 workers lost their jobs in XXX company at Seoul). In this case, we can grasp the detailed information of the social keyword such as "300 workers", "unemployment", "XXX company", and "Seoul". In addition, our system visualizes social keywords over time. Therefore, through our matching process and keyword visualization, most researchers will be able to detect social issues easily and quickly. Through this prototype system, we have detected various social issues appearing in our society and also showed effectiveness of our proposed methods according to our experimental results. Note that you can also use our proof-of-concept system in http://dslab.snu.ac.kr/demo.html.