• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.2-16
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• 2024

Various loads induced by marine environmental conditions, such as waves, currents, and wind, are crucial for the operation and viability of offshore wind power (OWP) systems. In particular, waves have a significant impact on the stress and fatigue load of offshore structures, and highly reliable design parameters should be derived through extreme value analysis (EVA) techniques. In this study, extreme wave analyses were conducted with various Weibull distribution models to determine the reliable design parameters of an OWP system suitable for the Ulsan area. Forty-three years of long-term hindcast data generated by a numerical wave model were adopted as the analyses data, and the least-squares method was used to estimate the parameters of the distribution function for EVA. The inverse first-order reliability method was employed as the EVA technique. The obtained results were compared among themselves under the assumption that the marginal probability distributions were 2p, 3p, and exponentiated Weibull distributions.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.26-36
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• 2020

An extreme value analysis of metocean data which include wave, wind, and current data is a prerequisite for the operation and survival of offshore structures. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the return wave, wind, and current values for the Barents Sea using extreme value analysis. Hindcast datasets of the Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves 2012 (GROW2012) for a waves, winds and currents were obtained from the Oceanweather Inc. The Gumbel distribution, 2 and 3 parameters Weibull distributions and log-normal distribution were used for the extreme value analysis. The least square method was used to estimate the parameters for the extreme value distribution. The return values, including the significant wave height, spectral peak wave period, wind speed and current speed at surface, were calculated and it will be utilized to design offshore structures to be operated in the Barents Sea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.311-316
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• 2013

In this study, the wave energy potential (WEP) was evaluated using the wave data measured at nine stations along the Korean east coast and compared with the results of previous studies. Along the Korean east coast, seasonal variations in the WEP were around 6.4 kW/m in winter and 1.2 kW/m in summer, greater than spatial variations of 2.5~4.3 kW/m. In most stations, the wave power during June to July were shown to be smallest. The estimated annual average WEP was greatest in the Mukho and Jukbyeon stations located in the middle of the Korean east coast at around 4.3 kW/m, and smallest in the Jinha station at around 2.5 kW/m. The results found using the previous hindcast data showed WEP having a tendency to decrease from south to north. However, in this study, the WEP showed a tendency of being greatest in the middle of the Korean east coast and decreasing in both north and south directions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.574-585
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• 2007

To analyze the incident wave characteristics around Haeundae beach the long-term deep water wave data computed by wave hindcast method were used and a continuous wave observation was carried out for 1 year at the 20 m of water depth in front of Haeundae beach. Wave observation data showd that the prevalent wave direction was SSW-S in spring and summer seasons while E-SE in autumn and winter. A numerical modeling shows that the waves from E-SE are refracted strongly due to the shoal developed at the south-east side of Haeundae beach. The simulation also shows inflowing nearshore current along the east coast of the beach develops strongly in autumn and winter. Radioactive isotope tracer experiment for 155 days indicated that the tracers moves to the on-shore direction in the 1st and 2nd tracking then dispersed to the E-W direction along the shore.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.478-484
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• 2019

The submarine cable for Yongsu wave power plant was cut in 2014 winter. This study investigated the probability of high-wave occurrence exceeding the 50-year return period and the underestimation of armor unit weight used to protect the cable. The observation data from KMA buoy and the hindcast wave data were reviewed to determine the return period of wave height during the winter. In order to investigate the armor unit weight of cable-protection, we calculated the required weight of armor unit using not only Design Standard for Harbor and Fishery Port, but also the previous researches for the wave with large incident angle. As a result, it appeared that the high wave exceeding the 50-year return period did not occur during the winter of 2014 and the armor unit weight of the cable protection was not sufficient to sustain the obliquely incident wave, which induced the cable protection failure.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.295-309
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• 2019

Due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather, the need to improve the accuracy of subseasonal prediction has increased. Here we analyze the performance of weekly predictions out to 6 weeks by GloSea5 climate model. The performance in circulation field from January 1991 to December 2010 is first analyzed at each grid point using the 500-hPa geopotential height. The anomaly correlation coefficient and mean-square skill score, calculated each week against the ECWMF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, illustrate better prediction skills regionally in the tropics and over the ocean and seasonally during winter. Secondly, we evaluate the predictability of 7 major teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Scandinavia (SCAND), Polar/Eurasia (PE), West Pacific (WP), Pacific-North American (PNA). Skillful predictability of the patterns turns out to be approximately 1~2 weeks. During summer, the EAWR and SCAND, which exhibit a wave pattern propagating over Eurasia, show a considerably lower skill than the other 5 patterns, while in winter, the WP and PNA, occurring in the Pacific region, maintain the skill up to 2 weeks. To account for the model's bias in reproducing the teleconnection patterns, we measure the similarity between the teleconnection patterns obtained in each lead time. In January, the model's teleconnection pattern remains similar until lead time 3, while a sharp decrease of similarity can be seen from lead time 2 in July.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.165-173
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• 1998

Analytical solutions to predict the movement rate of submerged mound are derived using the convection coefficient and the joint distribution function of wave heights and periods. Assuming that the sediment is moved onshore due to the velocity asymmetry of Stokes' second order nonlinear wave theory, the micro-scale bedload transport equation is applied to the sediment conservation. The nonlinear convection-diffusion equation can then be obtained which governs the migration of submerged mound. The movement rate decreases exponentially with increasing the water depth, but the movement rate tends to increase as the spectral width parameter, $ u$ increases. In comparison of the analytical solution with the measured data, it is found that the analytical solution overestimates the movement rate. However, the agreement between the analytical solution and the measured data is encouraging since this over-estimation may be due to the inaccuracy of input data and the limitation of sediment transport model. In particular, the movement rates with respect to the water depth predicted by the analytical solution are in very good agreement with the estimated result using the discritization technique with the hindcast wave data.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.189-197
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• 2011

As a multidisciplinary study encompassing oceanography and history, we have attempted to reanalyze the course of a historical navel battle, Myungryang Naval Battle(September 16th, 1597 according to the lunar calendar) through hindcasting the paleo-tidal currents and -tides(PTC). Firstly, we conducted harmonic analysis using 6-month current data observed at Uldolmok and 1-year elevation data provided by Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute in order to understand their characteristics and to hindcast the PTC. Observation results show that Uldolmok, ~300m wide, relatively narrow channel, is characterized by a flood-dominant mixed mainly semidiurnal tidal regime induced by relatively-strong shallow water constituents, showing closely a standing wave type of tidal current. Further, we hindcasted PTC on the day of Myungryang Naval Battle. Our results were compared and discussed with results(time and speeds of maximum(flood and ebb) currents and high and low water times) of the previous studies estimated from different methods. Lastly, we reconstruct the course of the event of Myungryang Naval Battle recorded in the Admiral Sun-Sin Yi's War Diary(Nangjung Iigi in Korean) based on our hindcasting results.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.67-74
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• 2023

High waves and storm surges due to tropical cyclones cause great damage in coastal areas; therefore, accurately predicting storm surges and high waves before a typhoon strike is crucial. Meteorological forcing is an important factor for predicting these catastrophic events. This study presents an improved methodology for determining accurate meteorological forcing. Typhoon Chaba, which caused serious damage to the south coast of South Korea in 2016, was selected as a case study. In this study, symmetric and asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the typhoon track forecasted by the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) were used to create meteorological forcing and were compared with those models based on the best track. The meteorological fields were also created by blending the meteorological field from the symmetric / asymmetric parametric vortex models based on the MPAS-forecasted typhoon track and the meteorological field generated by the forecasting model (MPAS). This meteorological forcing data was then used given to two-way coupled tide-surge-wave models: Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). The modeled storm surges and waves correlated well with the observations and were comparable to those predicted using the best track. Based on our analysis, we propose using the parametric model with the MPAS-forecasted track, the meteorological field from the same forecasting model, and blending them to improve storm surge and wave prediction.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.115-128
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• 2019

In this study, a probabilistic model for the estimation of yearly workable wave condition period for offshore operations is developed. In doing so, we first hindcast the significant wave heights and peak periods off the Ulsan every hour from 2003.1.1 to 2017.12.31 based on the meteorological data by JMA (Japan Meterological Agency) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and SWAN. Then, we proceed to derive the long term significant wave height distribution from the simulated time series using a least square method. It was shown that the agreements are more remarkable in the distribution in line with the Modified Glukhovskiy Distribution than in the three parameters Weibull distribution which has been preferred in the literature. In an effort to develop a more comprehensive probabilistic model for the estimation of yearly workable wave condition period for offshore operations, wave height distribution over the 15 years with individual waves occurring within the unit simulation period (1 hour) being fully taken into account is also derived based on the Borgman Convolution Integral. It is shown that the coefficients of the Modified Glukhovskiy distribution are $A_p=15.92$, $H_p=4.374m$, ${\kappa}_p=1.824$, and the yearly workable wave condition period for offshore work is estimated to be 319 days when a threshold wave height for offshore work is $H_S=1.5m$. In search of a way to validate the probabilistic model derived in this study, we also carry out the wave by wave analysis of the entire time series of numerically simulated significant wave heights over the 15 years to collect every duration periods of waves the height of which are surpassing the threshold height which has been reported to be $H_S=1.5m$ in the field practice in South Korea. It turns out that the average duration period is 45.5 days from 2003 to 2017, which is very close to 46 days from the probabilistic model derived in this study.