• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제35권4호
• /
• pp.249-258
• /
• 2014

대기 중 이산화탄소 등의 농도가 지속적으로 증가하고 있음에도 최근 10여 년 동안(2002-현재) 전지구 지표 온도는 거의 답보상태에 머물러 있다. 이처럼 온실기체 강제력에도 불구하고, 지구 온난화 경향이 사라진 듯 보이는 현상을 지구 온난화 멈춤(hiatus)이라 한다. 이 연구는 HadGEM2-AO가 모의한 RCP8.5 시나리오 실험(95년간) 자료를 분석하여, 온난화 멈춤 시기의 특징을 분석하였다. 온난화 멈춤 기간을 나타내는 시계열은 동서 평균한 연직 해수 온도 분포를 EOF 분석하여 구한 두 번째 PC (PC2)로 정의하였다. PC2를 이용하여 온난화 멈춤과 엔소와의 관련성, 기후시스템의 변화 등을 분석하였다. 라니냐 지수(NINO3지수에 -1을 곱하여 정의)가 PC2를 약 11개월 앞서는 것으로 보아 라니냐 발생이 온난화 멈춤을 유도할 수 있음을 발견하였다. 또한 기후시스템의 냉각은 해수 표층의 열이 해양 내부로 침강으로 나타남을 보였다. 이는 해양의 열흡수에 의해 전지구 온도 상승률이 약화되었음을 의미한다. 온난화 멈춤 시기에 북태평양과 북반구 극지는 양의 온도 편차가 나타났으며, 열대 해양에서는 무역풍이 강화되었다.

• 대기
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.379-390
• /
• 2014

This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMA stations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the $95^{th}$, $50^{th}$, and $5^{th}$ percentiles of daily maximum ($T_{max}$) and minimum temperatures ($T_{min}$) by using quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of $T_{max}$ and $T_{min}$ are generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the $5^{th}$ percentile temperature (cold extreme) is stronger than that of the $95^{th}$ percentile temperature (warm extreme) in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting, show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increased until 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the $95^{th}$ and $50^{th}$ percentiles of summer $T_{min}$ that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasing trend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warming hiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attribution of nonlinear temperature trends challenging.

• 대기
• /
• 제28권4호
• /
• pp.415-425
• /
• 2018

The roles of atmospheric heating formation and distribution on the global circulation are of utmost importance, and those are directly related to not only spatial but also temporal characteristics of monsoon system. In this study, before we clarify the characteristics of apparent heat source <$Q_1$> and moisture sink <$Q_2$>, comparisons of three reanalysis datasets (NCEP2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) in its global or regional patterns are performed to clearly evaluate differences among datasets. Considering inter-hemispheric difference of global monsoon regions, seasonal means of June-July-August and December-January-February, which is summer (winter) and winter (summer) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere are employed respectively. Here we show the characteristics of eight different regional monsoon regions and find contributions of <$Q_2$> to <$Q_1$> for the regional monsoon regions. Each term in apparent heat source and moisture sink is shown to come from the ERA-Interim dataset, since the ERA-Interim could be representative of three datasets. The NCEP2 data has a different characteristic in the ratio of <$Q_2$> and <$Q_1$> because it overestimates <$Q_1$> compared to the other two different datasets. The Australia monsoon has been performing better over time, while some regional monsoons (South America, North America, and North Africa) have been showing increasing data inconsistency. In addition, the three reanalysis datasets are getting different marching with time, in particular since the early 2000s over South America, North America, and North Africa monsoon regions. The recent inconsistency among the three datasets that may be associated with the global warming hiatus remains unexplored.