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http://dx.doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2014.35.4.249

The Global Warming Hiatus Simulated in HadGEM2-AO Based on RCP8.5  

Wie, Jieun (Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Chonbuk National University)
Moon, Byung-Kwon (Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Ki-Young (4D Solution Co., LTD.)
Lee, Johan (National Institute of Meteorological Research)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean earth science society / v.35, no.4, 2014 , pp. 249-258 More about this Journal
Abstract
Despite the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide have steadily increased in atmosphere, the overall trend of the global average surface air temperature has stalled during the last decade (2002-present). This phenomenon is often called hiatus or warming pause, which is challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes warming environment. Our study characterized the hiatus by analyzing the HadGEM2-AO (95 yrs) simulation data based on RCP8.5 scenario. The PC2 time series from the EOF of the zonal mean vertical ocean temperature has been defined as the index that represents the warming pause. The relationship between the hiatus, ENSO and the changes in climate system are identified by utilizing the newly defined PC2. Since the La Nina index (defined as the negative of NINO3 index) leads PC2 by about 11 months, it may be possible that the La Nina causes the warming to be interrupted. We also show that the cooling of the climate system closed tied to the heat penetration into the deep ocean, indicating the weakening the warming rate is due to the oceanic heat uptake. Finally, the global warming hiatus is characterized by the anomalous warming in Arctic region as well as the intensification of the trade wind in the equatorial Pacific.
Keywords
warming hiatus; HadGEM2-AO; La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$; oceanic heat uptake;
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