• Survey Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.3-30
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• 2004

In Korea, bellwether voting places were selected for exit poll based on the past voting results. Sometimes, voting place stratification were used to improve the exit poll performance. The sampled voting places are intended to mirror the general voters of the entire electoral district. But few studies have been done as to which sampling method works better. This study compared the four sampling methods-bellwether voting place sampling method, random sampling method, stratified bellwether sampling method and systematic sampling from ordered voting places method. When we applied the four methods to the 2004 general election data, the systematic sampling from ordered voting places method outperformed the other three sampling method. Also, we found that the additional sampling of voting places over nine contribute little to the accuracy of the estimation.

• Survey Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.1-32
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• 2005

The accuracy of exit poll mainly depends on the sampling method of voting places. For exit poll, we propose a probability sampling method of selecting voting places as an alternative to the bellwether polling place sampling. Through an empirical study based on the 2004 general election data, the efficiency of the suggested systematic sampling from ordered voting places was evaluated in terms of mean prediction error and it turns out that the proposed sampling method outperformed the bellwether polling places sampling. We also calculated the variance of estimator from the proposed sampling, and considered the sample size problem to guarantee the target precision using the design effect of the proposed sample design.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.55-79
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• 2007

This article attempts to provide an overview of the exit polls for the 2006 local elections in Korea. The sampling method, sampling error, non-response rate, and prediction error of the exit polls are reviewed. Also, we explore the fact that the propensity to vote varies according to age and gender of voters. In terms of age and gender, the representativeness of the sample is investigated by comparing to the data released by the National Election Commission. Through this empirical research, we show that the exit poll samples are unbalanced in terms of age and this unbalance may be one of the causes of bias occurred in the prediction of the 2006 local election results. The design effects of the sample design implemented for the exit polls are also examined.