• Title/Summary/Keyword: vote intention

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A Study on Correlation of Voting Behavior and Attitude and Vote Intention in the Poll Survey (사전 태도 및 투표 의향과 실제 투표행동간 상관성 연구)

  • Lee, Kay-O;Jang, Deok-Hyun
    • Survey Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2011
  • The purposes of the present study were to analyze correlation of vote behavior and attitude and vote intention in the pre-survey, and to investigate the efficient method of predicting the voting result from the pre-surveys. The previous attitude is measured by the support for the candidate, political self-confidence, self-efficacy and opinion on present issues. The vote intention is surveyed by the past election participation and degree of election interest. Real voting behavior is surveyed by the post enumeration, and the pre-survey and both post-survey are conducted to the same person to analyze the correlation of voting behavior and pre-survey. The real election participation is highly correlated with vote intention, election interest and past election participation. Almost respondents did not change the supporting candidate from the poll survey to the election vote. It is shown that the voting behavior at election of the nonrespondent of pre-survey can be predicted with the demographic charater and attitude of present issues.

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The Integration of Social Media to the Theory of Planned Behavior: A Case Study in Indonesia

  • SIHOMBING, Sabrina O.;PRAMONO, Rudy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.445-454
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    • 2021
  • Leader and leadership are one of the important aspects in the life of a country. This study aims to predict the intention of young voters to vote for state leader elections by expanding the theory of planned behavior to the Indonesian context. Apart from the importance of the presidential election, research rarely uses the theory of planned behavior, and to the best of researchers' knowledge, there are no studies that have applied the theory of planned behavior to predict the intention to vote for the president. Therefore, this study is an attempt to fill that gap. Two hundred questionnaires were distributed using non-probability purposive sampling. Data analysis was carried out using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The results showed that attitude and behavior control were positively related to voters' intention to elect presidential candidates. Furthermore, information from social media also has a positive relationship with the attitude of choosing presidential candidates. However, the results also show that subjective norms do not have a significant relationship with voters' intention. This study contributes knowledge to researchers, practitioners, and policymakers about the factors that influence youth intention to vote in Indonesia, namely, attitudes, perceived behavior control, and information from social media.

A case study for alternative methods of election forecasting (선거예측의 대안적 방법에 대한 사례연구)

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.499-509
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    • 2020
  • We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

The Relationship among Media use, Political cynicism, Voting Behavior in 2012 General Elections (2012 국회의원 총선에서 나타난 미디어 이용, 정치 냉소주의, 투표 참여 간의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyok-Nam
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.60
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    • pp.28-51
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    • 2012
  • This study explored the influence of media use on the audiences' intention to vote as well as their political cynicism in 2012 General elections. I offered three research questions: Research Question 1: What is the impact of media use on the political cynicism? Research Question 2: What are the impact of political intersest, political knowledge, media malaise, political efficacy on the political cynicism? Research Question 3: What is the impact of political cynicism on vote behavior? This study analysed survey data. Based on the results of hierarchial regression analysis and path analysis(AMOS), Internet news use was found to have a significant impact on the political cynicism. But the use of newspaper, TV news were not related to political cynicism. The political efficacy decreased political cynicism effectively, The findings from this study indicate that the relationship between media use and political cynicism is contingent on many factors and that cynicism has a negligible impact on citizen participation. This study also found that persons higher in efficacy were less cynical than low in efficacy. This suggest that cynicism is not always bad thing, that it may in fact be an indication of "an interested and critical citizenry". In conclusion this study showed that we need more in-depth analyses on the relationships among attention to media use, political cynicism and voting behavior to activate political participation.

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Availability and Problems of Panel Study: In Case of the 17th Presidential Election in Korea (패널조사의 유용성과 문제점 : 17대 대선자료를 대상으로)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Woo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.23-43
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to explain characteristics of panel data and display the academic cases using panel data. Panel data have merit to control various variables to influence respondents' attitude and estimate the effects of independent variables researchers are interested in by surveying the same respondents several times. However, panel data also have problems such as contaminating the respondents and reducing the number of the respondents as survey conducted several times. In spite of a few inherent problems of panel data, informations that panel data provide are valuable and some research themes could not be possible without panel data. This paper investigates the relationship between interest in elections and voting. Electoral stimulation such as watching TV debates influences the consistent voting intended. But changing nonvoters who had voting intention but not vote are not influenced by the electoral stimulation.

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Political Interest, Political Efficacy, and Media Usage as Factors Influencing Political Participation in Hospital Nurses (병원간호사의 정치관심도, 정치 효능감 및 매체 이용이 정치참여에 미치는 영향)

  • Jun, So Yeun;Ko, Il Sun;Bae, Ka Ryeong
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.342-352
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify how political interest, efficacy and media usage influence political participation in hospital nurses. Methods: Participants were 286 nurses, who were informed of the study purpose and agreed to participate. Data were collected during November and December, 2012 using a questionnaire on political interest, political efficacy, media usage and political participation. Data were analyzed using t-test, ANOVA, Scheff$\acute{e}$'s test, Pearson Correlation Coefficients, and Multiple Stepwise Regression. Results: Scores for political participation and political interest was average. The score for political efficacy was higher than average. Political participation was significantly different by education level, job career, position, and intention to vote in the election for the 18th President. Political participation had a moderate positive correlation with political interest (r=.50, p<.001), political efficacy (r=.32, p<.001) and media usage (r=.14, p=.022). Political interest (${\beta}$=.43) was the factor most influential on political participation, explaining 25% of the variance. A total of 32% of political participation was explained by political interest, political efficacy, and TV news or SNS for media use. Conclusion: The results suggest that it is necessary to develop strategies to promote political interest and political efficacy for hospital nurses to improve political participation.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

Analysis of the Effects of E-commerce User Ratings and Review Helfulness on Performance Improvement of Product Recommender System (E-커머스 사용자의 평점과 리뷰 유용성이 상품 추천 시스템의 성능 향상에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • FAN, LIU;Lee, Byunghyun;Choi, Ilyoung;Jeong, Jaeho;Kim, Jaekyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.311-328
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    • 2022
  • Because of the spread of smartphones due to the development of information and communication technology, online shopping mall services can be used on computers and mobile devices. As a result, the number of users using the online shopping mall service increases rapidly, and the types of products traded are also growing. Therefore, to maximize profits, companies need to provide information that may interest users. To this end, the recommendation system presents necessary information or products to the user based on the user's past behavioral data or behavioral purchase records. Representative overseas companies that currently provide recommendation services include Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube. These companies support users' purchase decisions by recommending products to users using ratings, purchase records, and clickstream data that users give to the items. In addition, users refer to the ratings left by other users about the product before buying a product. Most users tend to provide ratings only to products they are satisfied with, and the higher the rating, the higher the purchase intention. And recently, e-commerce sites have provided users with the ability to vote on whether product reviews are helpful. Through this, the user makes a purchase decision by referring to reviews and ratings of products judged to be beneficial. Therefore, in this study, the correlation between the product rating and the helpful information of the review is identified. The valuable data of the evaluation is reflected in the recommendation system to check the recommendation performance. In addition, we want to compare the results of skipping all the ratings in the traditional collaborative filtering technique with the recommended performance results that reflect only the 4 and 5 ratings. For this purpose, electronic product data collected from Amazon was used in this study, and the experimental results confirmed a correlation between ratings and review usefulness information. In addition, as a result of comparing the recommendation performance by reflecting all the ratings and only the 4 and 5 points in the recommendation system, the recommendation performance of remembering only the 4 and 5 points in the recommendation system was higher. In addition, as a result of reflecting review usefulness information in the recommendation system, it was confirmed that the more valuable the review, the higher the recommendation performance. Therefore, these experimental results are expected to improve the performance of personalized recommendation services in the future and provide implications for e-commerce sites.