• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.425-431
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• 2008

The future cargo transportation and traffic volume on container in Gwangyang port was forecasted by using univariate time series models in this research. And the container ship traffic was produced. The constructed models all were most adapted to Winters' additive models with a trend and seasonal change. The cargo transportation on container in Gwangyang port was estimated each about 2,756 thousand TEU and 4,470 thousand TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 7.4%, 16.2% compared with 2007. The volume per ship on container was estimated each about 675TEU and 801TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 30.3%, 54.6% compared with 2007. Also, traffic volume on container incoming in Gwangyang Port was prospected each about 4,078ships and 5,921ships in 2011 and 2015.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.81-98
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• 2018

Port logistics is essential for Korea's economy which heavily rely on international trade. Vast amounts of capital and time are consumed for the operation and development of ports to improve their competitiveness. Therefore, it is important to forecast cargo volume in order to establish the optimum level of construction and development plan. Itemized forecasting is necessary for appropriate port planning, since disaggregate approach is able to provides more realistic solution than aggregate forecasting. We introduce a new time series model which is Two-way Seasonality Multiplied Regressive Model (TSMR) to forecast oil cargo volume, which accounts for a large portion of total cargo volume in Korea. The TSMR model is designed to take into account the characteristics of oil cargo volume which exhibits trends with short and long-term seasonality. To verify the TSMR model, existing forecasting models are also used for a comparison reason. The results shows that the TSMR excels the existing models in terms of forecasting accuracy whereas the TSMR displays weakness in short-term forecasting. In addition, it was shown that the TSMR can be applied to other cargoes that have trends with short- and long-term seasonality through testing applicability of the TSMR.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.157-163
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• 2017

Forecasting container cargo volumes is very important factor for port related organizations in inversting in the recent port management. Especially forcasting of domestic and foreign container volume is necessary because adjacent nations are competing each other to handle more container cargoes. Exact forecasting is essential elements for national port policy, however there is still some difficulty in developing the predictive model. In this respect, the purpose of this study is to develop and suggest the forecasting model of container cargo volumes of China using System Dynamics (SD). The monthly data collected from Clarkson's Shipping Intelligence Network from year 2004 to 2015 during 12 years are used in the model. The accuracy of the model was tested by comparisons between actual container cargo volumes and forecasted corgo volumes suggested by the research model. The MAPE values are calcualted as 6.21% for imported cargo volumes and 7.68% for exported cargo volumes respectively. Less than 10% of MAPE value means that the suggested model is very accurate.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.11-16
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• 2022

When picking up cargo, workers manually load and unload the cargo. Workers have different intensity of work depending on the amount and weight of cargo. In particular, as the intensity of manual work increases, workers are exposed to cumulative traumatic diseases. A manual for picking safety work for workers cargo handling in the distribution center is required. In this study, the worker's picking safety work based on the cargo volume and weight was presented as an experimental design model. Like the research results, the disease begins when the worker feels the number of pains presented by the model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.279-286
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• 2017

This study suggests design criteria to evaluate the availability of anchorage in Korea to contribute to ship safety by presenting necessary design criteria for anchorage volume according to port development. Accordingly, the concept of "necessary volume of anchorage" is introduced to evaluate the volume of anchorage available in Korea's major ports, and classify these ports into three types according to the characteristics of incoming ship. Numerical simulations designed using MATLAB-SIMULINK have been carried out to track the irregularly of arrival and, waiting times along with the environmental conditions that affect anchorage and necessary volume of anchorage have been suggested based on these tests. Finally, in order to complete a function equation analysis, the necessary volume of anchorage with reference to cargo volume is addressed using regression analysis as follows. Group $A-Y_{NA}=0.0002X_{HA}-3.67$, Group $B-Y_{NB}=0.0002X_{HB}-6.82$, Group $C-Y_{NC}=0.0001X_{HC}+9.02$. This study contributes to a review of anchorage volume from the perspective of harbor development.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.45-55
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• 2012

In Korea, the parcel delivery service was launched officially in 1992, and the market has grown to 13.2 billion units, or 3.5 trillion won, as of 2011. The service companies accept small packages under 30 kg and deliver them on the next day in most domestic areas. This service plays an important role in business and personal activities. The parcel service companies have themselves designed the tariff for the delivery service based on two criteria: weight and the sum of three side lengths. Further, the tariff is graded in steps of three or four rate structures based on size (small, medium, large, and extra-small). However, the basic freight rate is generally decided according to the cargo's weight or measurement size, and an extra rate is added according to some factors (handling, stowability, liability, and so on). The parcel service tariff adopted by the companies is illogically designed, and this study was carried out to assess the need for redesigning the tariff structure. The cargo volume cannot be logically reflected by three side lengths. For example, two parcels measuring 160 cm based on three side lengths may have different volumes, one measuring 0.152 cbm (53.33 cm × 53.33 cm × 53.34 cm) and the other 0.05 cbm (100 cm × 50 cm × 10 cm). A small package of less than120 cm (sum of three side lengths) may have a volume of as much as 0.064 cbm (40 cm × 40 cm × 40 cm). Sample comparison showed that 17% of medium-size parcels (based on the sum of three side lengths) are small-volume packages, 24% of large-size parcels are small- or medium-volume packages, and 40% of extra-big-size parcels are big- or under-size packages. Therefore, if parcel service companies rate their services for volume cargo based on the three side lengths standard, users may have to pay higher than normal rates, particularly because a large percentage of parcels are volume cargo. According to this study, the average weight per 1 cbm is less than 300 kg. Therefore, users face an increasing risk of paying higher than logical freight charges. Generally, transportation companies are called "public interest enterprises," and parcel service companies operate as postal services. Public interest enterprises must provide the delivery service to all customers without discrimination at a reasonable service level and logical service charges. Therefore, parcels service tariffs must be designed and adopted logically. In this study, freight theories and prior research findings were used to consider the importance of freight rates, and distortion of parcel service rates based on the three side lengths system was verified through regression analysis of a parcel sample and sample comparison. In conclusion, volume sizes based on three side lengths have a higher correlation to the rate level than does the sum of three side lengths. Further, compared to the sum of three side lengths, volume size has a higher correlation to cargo weight, which is the most basic factor determining transportation cost. Therefore, the existing parcel service tariff should be changed to weight- and volume-based rates, and the tariff must be graded in steps of 8 to 10 higher rate structures for a logical freight schedule based on service cost.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.91-104
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• 2020

Seosan-Daesan Port is the sixth largest port in Korea, and it promotes port infrastructure expansion, regular route development, overseas marketing, and port incentive systems for continuous growth. In addition, the port is planning to open a regular car ferry line to Weihai, China. This study aims to provide useful research data for effective decision making by analyzing the feasibility of opening the Chinese (Weihai) car ferry route of Seosan-Daesan Port. Currently, some car ferry routes that operate between Korea and China are open at Incheon Port, the Port of Pyeongtaek-Dangjin, and the Port of Gunsan. In order to estimate the volume of cargo that will be created when the car ferry route from Seosan-Daesan Port to Weihai opens, this research analyzes the domestic cargo volume from the Chungcheongnam-do region, where Seosan-Daesan Port is located, to each of the regions where the other ports are located. We estimated the volume of cargo that can be transported on the car ferry from Seosan-Daesan Port to Weihai. As a result, by 2020, about 76,000 passengers and about 50,000 tons of cargo could be created. Suggestions were made for policy strategies that would revitalize passenger numbers and secure the cargo volume of the car ferry, along with a discussion of and the port incentive system.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.662-670
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• 2019

Tanker cargo tanks are equipped with the means of raising and maintaining the cargo discharge temperature to a suitable level. In this paper, a new heating coil design is proposed and analyzed. Contrary to conventional designs, wherein the heating coils are evenly distributed over the tank bottom, the proposed design arranges the heating coils in the central part of the tank bottom, in a vertical direction. Due to the intensive cargo circulation generated, a forced convection is superimposed on a buoyancy-driven natural convection, providing a more efficient mixed convection heat transfer mechanism. Numerical simulations performed by using a finite volume method show that in the case of 7-bar steam Bunker C heavy fuel oil heating, a five-hour circulation phase average heat transfer coefficient equals 199.2 W/m²K. This result might be taken as an impetus for the more thorough experimental examination.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.155-161
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• 2023

97.5% of our country's exports and 87.2% of imports are transported by sea, making ports an important component of the Korean economy. To efficiently operate these ports, it is necessary to improve the short-term prediction of port water volume through scientific research methods. Previous research has mainly focused on long-term prediction for large-scale infrastructure investment and has largely concentrated on container port water volume. In this study, short-term predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume were performed for Ulsan Port, one of the representative petroleum ports in Korea, and the prediction performance was confirmed using the deep learning model LSTM (Long Short Term Memory). The results of this study are expected to provide evidence for improving the efficiency of port operations by increasing the accuracy of demand predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume. Additionally, the possibility of using LSTM for predicting not only container port water volume but also petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume was confirmed, and it is expected to be applicable to future generalized studies through further research.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2012

The steel cargoes as the core raw materials for the manufacturing industry have important roles for increasing the handling volume of the port. In particular, steel cargoes are fundamental to vitalize Port of Incheon because they have recognized as the primary key cargo items among the bulk cargoes. In this respect, the IPA(Incheon Port Authority) ambitiously developed the port complex facilities including dedicated terminals and its hinterland in northern part of Incheon. However, these complex area has suffered from low cargo handling records and has faced operational difficulties due to decreased net profits. In general, the import and export steel cargo volumes are sensitively fluctuated followed by internal and external economy index. There is a scant of research for forecasting the steel cargo volume in Incheon port which used in various economy index. To fill the research gap, the aim of this research is to predict the steel cargoes of Port of Incheon using the well established methodology i.e. System Dynamics. As a result, steel cargoes volume dealt with in Incheon port is forecasted from about 8 million tons to about 10 million tons during simulation duration (2011-2020). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is measured as 0.0013 which verifies the model's accuracy.