• Title/Summary/Keyword: volume forecast

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Status of the technology development of large scale HTS generators for wind turbine

  • Le, T.D.;Kim, J.H.;Kim, D.J.;Boo, C.J.;Kim, H.M.
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2015
  • Large wind turbine generators with high temperature superconductors (HTS) are in incessant development because of their advantages such as weight and volume reduction and the increased efficiency compared with conventional technologies. In addition, nowadays the wind turbine market is growing in a function of time, increasing the capacity and energy production of the wind farms installed and increasing the electrical power for the electrical generators installed. As a consequence, it is raising the wind power energy contribution for the global electricity demand. In this study, a forecast of wind energy development will be firstly emphasized, then it continue presenting a recent status of the technology development of large scale HTSG for wind power followed by an explanation of HTS wire trend, cryogenics cooling systems concept, HTS magnets field coil stability and other technological parts for optimization of HTS generator design - operating temperature, design topology, field coil shape and level cost of energy, as well. Finally, the most relevant projects and designs of HTS generators specifically for offshore wind power systems are also mentioned in this study.

A Study on the Evaluation Method about Marketability of Product Design (제품디자인의 시장성 평가방법 연구)

  • 이문기
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2001
  • This study suggested how to apply it decision-making of product development rapidly by design evaluation process to objectify and the result to quantify with viewpoint of design evaluation sets to marketability. Coverage of this method limited to the evaluation stage of design concept. The procedure of study, first of all, referred to some type of design evaluation method and their feature. And next, referred to some kinds of demand forecasting for marketing. Above an, this study focused on the method of demand forecasting by buying intentions surveys proper to the marketability evaluation of new product design. On a case study, I had investigated preference survey and buying intentions surveys about the design proposal of "language master audio". I selected the best design proposal through the conjoint analysis and also investigated demand forecasting. First, on the basis of buying intentions surveys, choose population and had produced buying demand, awareness demand, potential demand. I could estimate some profit to take out expense and cost from the buying demand. This estimated profit is marketability judgement data of product design at the design concept stage and can be utilized to measurable data for decision-making of product development. Through the case study, this method could forecast a target demand, and even if it is some difference between real sales volume, but the case study could verified that this method is effective to the evaluation of marketability in case of completely new product got on the typical category and the product category could be set up the population clearly.

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An Analysis of Consumption Patterns in Residential Sector of District Heating (지역난방의 주택용 열소비행태 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Hyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.217-234
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    • 2001
  • The use of district heating is expanding very rapidly in Korea. High population densities and the relatively cold winters make district heating an economically attractive option. About 8 percent of Korean houses are already using district heating and the government is seeking to aggressively expand this number. It has set a target of 15 percent of the residential heat market to be met by district heating in the year 2001. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the consumption behavior of households using district heating. By pooling time-series and cross-sectional data for 12 apartment complexes in Seoul area, a single demand function is estimated and used to forecast the amounts of heat demanded by the individual households. The results shows that the level of consumption varies among households, depending on the non-economic factors such as the installation of individual metering equipment and the volume of apartment building. When individual metering equipment is installed, the level of annual heat consumption per household declines, on average, about 22.1 Mcal per square meters, which is equivalent to 834 won per square meter in terms of heating expenditures. In case that the apartment building was built in more than 6 stories, annual consumption level reduces additionally about 17.3 Mcal per square meters and, thus, save the expenditures by 649 Won per square meters, compared to the opposite case.

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A Study on the Effective Management for the International Sea-borne Container (국제 해상 컨테이너의 운용방안에 관한 연구)

  • 김성국;신한원
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.33-48
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    • 1995
  • In the process of containerization, the problem of regional maldistribution of container management plan arises seriously due to several factors like a number of unbalances of containers between loading and discharging ports. This study focus on the minimizing cost. This study is composed of two models which in effective management decision making show decision of the number of containers and transfer of empty containers. One is decision of the number of containers which carriers should possess by appropriate forecasting and the other is effective management decision making which includes the transfer of empty containers on calling ports. This study has suggested as follows, First, the Time Series analysis method, especially the "Exponential Smooting with Trend Adjustment" was used to forecast the trade volumes for the designated traffic route. Second, the Time Series analysis method in deciding the optimal number of owned container at the unbalances trade situation between East Bound and West Bound service, most important variables were found such as total traffic volume, the calling interval at a port, the number of days of voyage and the length of stay on shore of container for the optimal number of owned container. Third, effective management decision making model, which makes it possible to analyze the impacts of change in important matters such as lease and positioning policy, and actually influence decision making.on making.

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CME mean density and its change from the corona to the Earth

  • Na, Hyeonock;Moon, Yong-Jae
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.50.2-50.2
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    • 2019
  • Understanding three-dimensional structure and parameters (e.g., radial velocity, angular width, source location and density) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for space weather forecast. In this study, we determine CME mean density in solar corona and near the Earth. We select 38 halo CMEs, which have the corresponding interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), by SOHO/LASCO from 2000 to 2014. To estimate a CME volume, we assume that a CME structure is a full ice-cream cone which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We derive CME mean density as a function of radial height, which are approximately fitted to power-law functions. The average of power-law indexes is about 2.1 in the LASCO C3 field of view. We also obtain power-law functions for both CME mean density at 21 solar radii and ICME mean density at 1AU, with the average power-law index of 2.6. We estimate a ratio of CME density to background density based on the Leblanc et al.(1998) at 21 solar radii. Interestingly, the average of the ratios is 4.0, which is the same as a default value used in the WSA-ENLIL model.

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An Analysis of the Prediction Accuracy of HVAC Fan Energy Consumption According to Artificial Neural Network Variables (인공신경망 변수에 따른 HVAC 에너지 소비량 예측 정확도 평가 - 송풍기를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jee-Heon;Seong, Nam-Chul;Choi, Won-Chang;Choi, Ki-Bong
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2018
  • In this study, for the prediction of energy consumption in the ventilator, one of the components of the air conditioning system, the predicted results were analyzed and accurate by the change in the number of neurons and inputs. The input variables of the prediction model for the energy volume of the fan were the supply air flow rate, the exhaust air flow rate, and the output value was the energy consumption of the fan. A predictive model has been developed to study with the Levenbarg-Marquardt algorithm through 8760 sets of one-minute resolution. Comparison of actual energy use and forecast results showed a margin of error of less than 1% in all cases and utilization time of less than 3% with very high predictability. MBE was distributed with a learning period of 1.7% to 2.95% and a service period of 2.26% to 4.48% respectively, and the distribution rate of ${\pm}10%$ indicated by ASHRAE Guidelines 14 was high.8.

Short-Term Prediction Model of Postal Parcel Traffic based on Self-Similarity (자기 유사성 기반 소포우편 단기 물동량 예측모형 연구)

  • Kim, Eunhye;Jung, Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.76-83
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    • 2020
  • Postal logistics organizations are characterized as having high labor intensity and short response times. These characteristics, along with rapid change in mail volume, make load scheduling a fundamental concern. Load analysis of major postal infrastructures such as post offices, sorting centers, exchange centers, and delivery stations is required for optimal postal logistics operation. In particular, the performance of mail traffic forecasting is essential for optimizing the resource operation by accurate load analysis. This paper addresses a traffic forecast problem of postal parcel that arises at delivery stations of Korea Post. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a method for predicting short-term traffic of postal parcel based on self-similarity analysis and to introduce an application of the traffic prediction model to postal logistics system. The proposed scheme develops multiple regression models by the clusters resulted from feature engineering and individual models for delivery stations to reinforce prediction accuracy. The experiment with data supplied by main postal delivery stations shows the advantage in terms of prediction performance. Comparing with other technique, experimental results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy up to 45.8%.

The Methodological Aspects of Forecasting and the Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators

  • VYBOROVA, Elena Nikolaevna
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The main research goals by macroeconomic analysis is to assess the effectiveness of state regulation, the sustainability of development, and the financial stability of the state. Research design, Data, and methodology - The research were analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Stat graphics. The volume of data from the 1995 to the 2021 was analyzed by Russian Federation. The scale of research on Belarus: to be analyzed the amount of data from the 2015 by 2021, on Kazakhstan - from the 19941, on Kyrgyzstan - from the 2002, on Tajikistan - from the 2008, on Armenia - from the 2021, on Japan - since the 1970, on China - since the 1950, on South Korea - since the 1953. Result - The methods of multivariate statistics was demonstrated exact of result in forecasting of macroeconomic indicators. The most of tendency with the accurate results of are described using the second-degree polynomials. In the most research of country there are the macroeconomic proportion are broken. Conclusion - In the countries studied, the monetary aggregates have a significant growth rate. The shares with a substantial monetary stock and the speed of its growth are divided in the two groups: having placements in the real sectors of the economy and not having received the same result of development from the growth of the monetary stock.

Thermo-hydrodynamic investigation into the effects of minichannel configuration on the thermal performance of subcooled flow boiling

  • Amal Igaadi;Rachid El Amraoui;Hicham El Mghari
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2024
  • The current research focuses on the development of a numerical approach to forecast strongly subcooled flow boiling of FC-72 as the refrigerant in various vertical minichannel shapes for high-heat-flux cooling applications. The simulations are carried out using the Volume of Fluid method with the Lee phase change model, which revealed some inherent flaws in multiphase flows that are primarily due to an insufficient interpretation of shearlift force on bubbles and conjugate heat transfer against the walls. A user-defined function (UDF) is used to provide specific information about this noticeable effect. The influence of shape and the inlet mass fluxes on the flow patterns, heat transfer, and pressure drop characteristics are discussed. The computational results are validated with experimental measurements, where excellent agreements are found that prove the efficiency of the present numerical model. The findings demonstrate that the heat transfer coefficient decreases as the mass flux increases and that the constriction design improves the thermal performance by 24.68% and 10.45% compared to the straight and expansion shapes, respectively. The periodic constriction sections ensure good mixing between the core and near-wall layers. In addition, a slight pressure drop penalty versus the thermal transfer benefits for the two configurations proposed is reported.

Study on the Dextran and the Inner Structure of Jeung-Pyun (Korea Rice Cake) on Adding Oligosaccharide (올리고당 첨가 증편 발효 중 Dextran 형성과 증편의 내부구조에 관한 연구)

  • 이은아;우경자
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2002
  • This study was carried out in order to investigate dextran formation and internal structure during fermentation of the oligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun. The dextran and sugar reducing contents of Jeung-Pyun batter and the specific volume and the internal structure of Jeung-Pyun were analyzed as a function of fermentation time. The specific volume of Jeung-Pyun peaked at the 7th hour of fermentation. The dextran content of Jeung-Pyun batters peaked at the 7~13th hour of fermentation, and Fructooligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun had the least peak value. Reducing sugar content of Jeung-Pyun batters slowly decreased as fermentation progressed. From the air pore size and distribution of Jeung-Pyun observed by SEM, the sucrose Jeung-Pyun fermented for 3~7 hours and oligosaccharide one fermented for 7 hours were judged as the best. It was concluded that dextran may be formed by fermentation of oligosaccharides as well as sucrose and dextran has a significant role on the volume expansion of Jeung-Pyun.

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