• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.943-964
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• 2005

This study estimated a wide range of stochastic process models using the frameworks of CKLS (1992) and Nowman and Wang (2001). For empirical analysis, the GMM estimation procedure is adopted for the monthly Brent crude oil prices from January 1996 to January 2005. Using the simulated price series, European call option premiums were calculated and compared each other. The empirical results suggest that the crude oil price has a strong dependency of volatility on the price level. Contrary to the results of previous related studies, it shows a weak tendency of mean reversion. In addition, the models provide different implications for pricing derivatives on crude oil.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.9
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• pp.143-154
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• 2021

This study aims to explore the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between ten Asian stock indexes, the US stock index, and Bitcoin by using the dynamic conditional correlation model. The time span of the daily data is between January 2015 to May 2021, the total observation is 1,116. DCC(1,1)-EGARCH(1,1) with multivariate t and normal distributions for the DCC and EGARCH models, respectively, outperforms other models by the goodness of fit values. Except for Bitcoin, we discovered that the majority of the securities' volatilities have a very high volatility persistence. Furthermore, the negative shocks/news have more impact on the volatilities than positive shocks/news in most of the cases, except the stock index of China and Bitcoin. Most of the correlation pairs exhibit higher correlation during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-COVID-19, except Hong Kong-The US and Malaysia-Indonesia. Moreover, the correlation between Asian stock indexes during the COVID-19 pandemic is statistically higher than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are a few instances where the Hong Kong stock index and a few countries are identical. The result of correlation size shows the connectedness between Asian stock markets, which are well-connected within the region, especially with South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.1-8
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• 2021

Purpose: This study empirically investigates what factors contribute to corporate value in the Korea New Exchange (KONEX) market and determines whether financial constraints contribute any effect on it. Research design, data and methodology: A fixed-effect panel regression model was utilized to analyze financial constraints on firm value for KONEX listed firms through the fiscal period from 2013 to 2020. Results: we find that firms' research and development, volatility, size, and sales growth give significant impacts to firm value, but the significance and direction are different. In addition, no significant relationship exists between the largest shareholder's equity ratio and firm value in all models. The debt-to-equity ratio did not show a significant relationship with corporate value. A significant negative relationship was found between R&D and corporate value in the entire sample. Volitility exhibited a positive relationship with corporate value in the entire sample and financially unconstrained companies. Firm size presented a significant negative relationship with company value in all models. Sales growth showed a significant negative relationship with corporate value in financially constrained companies. Conclusions: No difference is found between financially constrained and unconstrained companies in the KONEX market. We can infer that KONEX companies have a large difference with KOSPI or KOSDAQ. Further analysis is needed on the differences among these markets.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.823-834
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• 2010

Stock markets perpetually accumulate information. During trading hours the price instantaneously reacts to new information, but accumulated overnight information reacts simultaneously on the opening price. This can create opening price uctuations. This study explores the overnight information e ects on intra-da stock market volatility. GARCH models and the VKOSPI model are provided. Empirical data includes daily opening and closing prices of the KOSPI 200 index and the VKOSPI from March $3^{rd}$ 2008 to June $22^{th}$ 2010. Empirical results show that the VKOSPI signi cantly decrease during trading time when positiv overnight information moves the Korean stock upward. This study provides useful information to investors since the Korea Exchange plans to introduce a futures market for the VKOSPI soon.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.260-266
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• 2017

The global economy, including Korea, has continuously searched for various market-friendly policies and new economic systems in pursuit of the forth industrial revolution. As a result, economic markets have grown, and factors affecting markets have diversified. Therefore, as for many company's decision makers, it has become an important issue to analyze and forecast markets accurately and effectively for rapid and appropriate decision making. In this study, we aim to improve the accuracy and validity of forecast models by applying extended information criteria in existing restricted information criteria to determine optimized modeling for the accurate analysis and prediction of complex market environments. In order to verify the practical use of the extended information criteria adopted in this study, we compare this study employing KOSPI data with previous studies. Experimental results show that applying extended information criteria is more accurate than using the existing information criteria.

• East Asian mathematical journal
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.617-641
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• 2022

In this study, we first present a brief overview of the Korean general insurance market. We then explore the characteristics of the loss ratios of the Korean general insurance industry and apply Markov regime-switching methodology to model the loss ratios of these insurance companies by line of business based on changes in economic regimes. This study applies a number of confirmatory tests such as Zivot-Andrews test (2002), the Chow (1960) test and the Bai and Perron (1998) to confirm the presence of structural breaks in the time series of the loss ratios by line of business. Then, we employ Markov regime-switching methodology to model these loss ratios. We find empirical evidence that the loss ratios reported by insurance companies in Korea is characterized by two distinct regimes; a regime with high volatility and a regime with low volatility, except for vehicle insurance. Our analyses suggest that macro-economic conditions have significant explanatory effect on loss ratios but the direction of effect differs based on the line of business and the regime. Unlike previous studies that have applied linear regressions or divided the samples into different periods and then apply linear regressions to model loss ratios, we argue for the application of Markov regime-switching methodology, which are able to automatically distinguish the different regimes that may be associated with the movements of loss ratios based on differing economic conditions and regulatory upheavals. This study provides a more in depth understanding of loss ratios in the general insurance industry and will be of value to insurance practitioners in modelling the loss ratios associated with their businesses to aid in their decision making. The results may also provide a basis for further studies in other markets apart from Korea as well as for shaping policy decisions related to loss ratios.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.369-378
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• 2013

The Korean Won-Dollar exchange markets showed radical price movements in the late 1990s and 2008. Therefore it provides good sources for studying volatility phenomena. Using the GARCH option models, I analysed how the prices of foreign exchange options react volatilities in the foreign exchange spot prices. For this I compared the explanatory power of three option models(Black and Scholes, Duan, Heston and Nandi), using the Won-Dollar OTC option markets data from 2006 to 2013. I estimated the parameters using MLE and calculated the mean square pricing errors. According to the my empirical studies, the pricing errors of Duan, Black and Scholes models are 0.1%. And the pricing errors of the Heston and Nandi model is greatest among the three models. So I would like to recommend using Duan or Black and Scholes model for hedging the foreign exchange risks. Finally, the historical average of spot volatilities is about 14%, so trading the options around 5% may lead to serious losses to sellers.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.615-624
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• 2015

We consider the estimation of seasonal cointegration in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity (CH) using a feasible generalized least squares method. We capture cointegrating relationships and time-varying volatility for long-run and short-run dynamics in the same model. This procedure can be easily implemented using common methods such as ordinary least squares and generalized least squares. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is computationally difficult and may not be feasible for larger models. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method is superior to the ML method when CH exists. In order to illustrate the proposed method, an empirical example is presented to model a seasonally cointegrated times series under CH.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2008

The Swaption is one of the popular Interest rates derivatives. In spite of such a popularity, the swaption pricing formula is hard to derived within the theoretical consistency. Most of swaption pricing model are heavily depending on the simulation technique. We present a new class of swaption model based on the multi-factor HJM levy-mixture model. A key contribution of this paper is to provide a generalized swaption pricing formula encompassing many market stylize facts. We provide an approximated closed form solution of the swaption price using the Gram-Charlier expansion. Specifically, the solution form is similar to the market models, since our approximation is based on the Lognormal distribution. It can be directly compared with the traditional Black's formula when the size of third and fourth moments are not so large. The proposed extended levy model is also expected to be capable of producing the volatility smiles and skewness.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.490-496
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• 2017

We have designed an extractive distillation for separating maximum boiling azeotrope of acetone-chloroform system. PRO/II 9.4 was used to simulate the overall process. The VLE data adopted from Dortmund data bank was regressed to obtain a new set of binary interaction parameters. Three different entrainers were used for the separation process--dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), ethylene glycol (EG) and benzene--to test their viability for the acetone-chloroform system. Thermodynamic feasibility analysis was done through ternary map diagrams. Two different thermodynamic models, NRTL and UNIQUAC, were explored for the study of overall process.