• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
• /
• v.6 no.3
• /
• pp.24-36
• /
• 2018

Purpose - From establishing China-Japan diplomatic relations in 1972, the relations between two states has improved a lot, from which makes the government and the people reap much benefit. Owing to this reason, this paper aims at exploiting the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Research design and methodology - The quarterly time series data from 2003 to 2016 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector error correction model. Meanwhile, a menu of estimated methods such the Johansen co-integration test and the Granger Causality test will be also used to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Results - The empirical analysis results exhibit that the real exchange rate has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. Conversely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB, the trade openness and the real GDP have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, in the short run, the China's foreign direct investment to Japan, the real exchange rate, the trade openness and the real GDP in period have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Oppositely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB in period has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Conclusions - From the empirical evidences in this paper provided, it can be concluded that an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can result in a decrease in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can lead to an increase in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the short run. Therefore, the China's government should have a best control of the real exchange rate volatility of RMB so as to improve China's foreign direct investment to Japan.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.16 no.8
• /
• pp.387-394
• /
• 2016

The volatility in the stock market responds differently to information types. That is, the asymmetric volatility exists in the stock market which responds more to unexpected negative returns due to bad news than unexpected positive returns due to good news. This paper examines the asymmetric response of the volatility of KOSPI, large-cap, middle-cap, and small-cap indices returns which is announced in Korea exchange (KRX) by using the MA-GJR model and the MA-EGARCH model. According to empirical analyses, it shows that the asymmetric response of volatility exists in all indices regardless of volatility estimation models and the degree of the asymmetric volatility response of the small-cap index returns is greater than that of the large-cap index returns. Moreover, this results also observed robustly during the period of both before and after the global financial crisis.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.16 no.10
• /
• pp.6511-6516
• /
• 2015

This paper examines the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility(IVOL) puzzle and trading volumes by trader types in the Korean stock market. The data set includes all stock in both KRX and KOSDAQ for the period from January 1999 through December 2013. Idiosyncratic volatility is measured by using the Fama-French's three-factor model. Traders are classified into individual, institution, and foreign trader. We construct (5X5) portfolios based on each trader's net buying and idiosyncratic volatility. We find that there are some special portfolios that show the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. For individual investors, top net buying portfolios show clear the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. However, for institution and foreign investors, lowest net buying portfolio show the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. This results imply that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in the Korean stock market is mainly caused by individual investors.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.683-692
• /
• 2020

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.395-414
• /
• 2008

The objective of this study is to introduce the concepts and theories of conditional heteroscedastic volatility models and the news impact curves and apply them to the Korea inbound tourism market. Three volatility models were introduced and used to estimate the conditional volatility of monthly arrivals of inbound tourists into Korea and news impact curves according to the three models. Results of this study are as follows. As the proportion of American tourists occupied a large amount of Korea inbound tourism market, the markets' forecasting is very important. The news impact curves which used EGARCH model (1,1) and TGARCH model(1,1), with data on these tourists to Korea showed an asymmetry effect of volatility. It was common that bad news means that it was estimated more sensitively than good news. From these results, we will notice that American tourists who visited Korea only for tourism are affected by good news. The result suggests that the Korea government and tourism industry should pay more attention to changes in the tourism environment following bad news because conditional volatility increases more when a negative shock occurs than when a positive shock occurs.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.187-200
• /
• 2013

In this paper, we deal with the problem of deciding a hedging volatility for ATM plain options when we hedge those options based on geometric Brownian motion. For this, we study the relation between hedging volatility and hedge profit&loss(P&L) as well as perform Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis to examine how differently hedge P&L is affected by the selection of hedging volatility. In conclusion, using a relatively low hedging volatility is found to be more favorable for hedge P&L when underlying asset prices are expected to be range bound; however, a relatively high volatility is found to be favorable when underlying asset prices are expected to move on a trend.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• v.9 no.4
• /
• pp.323-338
• /
• 2010

In this paper, we introduce the implied volatility from Black-Scholes model and suggest a model for constructing implied volatility surfaces by using the two-dimensional cubic (bi-cubic) spline. In order to utilize a spline method, we acquire grid (knot) points. To this end, we first extract implied volatility curves weighted by trading contracts from market option data and calculate grid points from the extracted curves. At this time, we consider several conditions to avoid arbitrage opportunity. Then, we establish an implied volatility surface, making use of the two-dimensional cubic spline method with previously estimated grid points. The method is shown to satisfy several properties of the implied volatility surface (smile, skew, and flattening) as well as avoid the arbitrage opportunity caused by simple match with market data. To show the merits of our proposed method, we conduct simulations on market data of S&P500 index European options with reasonable and acceptable results.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.10
• /
• pp.49-59
• /
• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.93-104
• /
• 2022

In forecasting realized volatility of the major US stock price indexes (S&P 500, Russell 2000, DJIA, Nasdaq 100), internet search volume reflecting investor's interests and implied volatility are used to improve forecast via a deep learning method of the LSTM. The LSTM method combined with search volume index produces better forecasts than existing standard methods of the vector autoregressive (VAR) and the vector error correction (VEC) models. It also beats the recently proposed vector error correction heterogeneous autoregressive (VECHAR) model which takes advantage of the cointegration relation between realized volatility and implied volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.5
• /
• pp.19-27
• /
• 2022

The size of the government is one of the most fundamental debates of open economies. In any economy, government plays an important role, but a pertinent level of economic prosperity has never been obtained in history without government. Therefore, the objective of this paper investigates the association of government size, economic volatility, and institutional quality for 182 economies from the time period 1996-2016 is collected from the World Bank database. GE is defined as the General government's final consumption expenditure. Health expenditure is represented by HE. Government expenditure on education is denoted by EDUEXP. The economic volatility is measured by the rolling standard deviation of GDP per capita growth rate, Population growth, Trade openness, GINI represented Gini index which measures the degree to which the income distributed or consumption expenses among citizens deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. The results proposed that economic volatility has a significant effect on government size and institutional qualities. Moreover, the paper extends the investigation by finding the link between economic volatility with government health and education expenditure separately. The policy implication drawn from this analysis is that controlling economic volatility may reduce the size of government and also significantly affect health and education expenditures.