• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.42-51
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• 2020

This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.23-48
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• 2021

The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.41-54
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• 2021

It is very essential to estimate the water body area using remote exploration for water resource management, analysis and prediction of water disaster damage. Hydrophysical detection using satellites has been mainly performed on large satellites equipped with optical and SAR sensors. However, due to the long repeat cycle, there is a limitation that timely utilization is impossible in the event of a disaster/disaster. With the recent active development of Micro satellites, it has served as an opportunity to overcome the limitations of time resolution centered on existing large satellites. The Micro satellites currently in active operation are ICEYE in Finland and Capella satellites in the United States, and are operated in the form of clusters for earth observation purposes. Due to clustering operation, it has a short revisit cycle and high resolution and has the advantage of being able to observe regardless of weather or day and night with the SAR sensor mounted. In this study, the operation status and characteristics of micro satellites were described, and the water area estimation technology optimized for micro SAR satellite images was applied to the Daecheong Dam basin on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, accuracy verification was performed based on the reference value of the water generated from the optical satellite Sentinel-2 satellite as a reference. In the case of the Capella satellite, the smallest difference in area was shown, and it was confirmed that all three images showed high correlation. Through the results of this study, it was confirmed that despite the low NESZ of Micro satellites, it is possible to estimate the water area, and it is believed that the limitations of water resource/water disaster monitoring using existing large SAR satellites can be overcome.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.10
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• pp.723-736
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• 2022

In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.451-468
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• 2021

Predicting hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) tunnel face is essential for efficient and stable TBM advance. Although there have been several studies on the electrical resistivity survey method for TBM tunnelling, sufficient experimental data considering TBM advance were not established yet. Therefore, in this study, the laboratory-scale model experiments for simulating TBM excavation were carried out to analyze the applicability of an electrical resistivity survey for predicting hazardous ground conditions ahead of a TBM tunnel face. The trend of electrical resistivity during TBM advance was experimentally evaluated under various hazardous ground conditions (fault zone, seawater intruded zone, soil to rock transition zone, and rock to soil transition zone) ahead of a tunnel face. In the course of the experiments, a scale-down rock ground was provided using granite blocks to simulate the rock TBM tunnelling. Based on the experimental data, the electrical resistivity tends to decrease as the tunnel approaches the fault zone. While the seawater intruded zone follows a similar trend with the fault zone, the resistivity value of the seawater intrude zone decreased significantly compared to that of the fault zone. In case of the soil-to-rock transition zone, the electrical resistivity increases as the TBM approaches the rock with relatively high electrical resistivity. Conversely, in case of the rock-to-soil transition zone, the opposite trend was observed. That is, electrical resistivity decreases as the tunnel face approaches the rock with relatively low electrical resistivity. The experiment results represent that hazardous ground conditions (fault zone, seawater intruded zone, soil-to-rock transition zone, rock-to-soil transition zone) can be efficiently predicted by utilizing an electrical resistivity survey during TBM tunnelling.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.469-484
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• 2021

Rock mass classification results have a great influence on construction schedule and budget as well as tunnel stability in tunnel design. A total of 3,526 tunnels have been constructed in Korea and the associated techniques in tunnel design and construction have been continuously developed, however, not many studies have been performed on how to assess rock mass quality and grade more accurately. Thus, numerous cases show big differences in the results according to inspectors' experience and judgement. Hence, this study aims to suggest a more reliable rock mass classification (RMR) model using machine learning algorithms, which is surging in availability, through the analyses based on various rock and rock mass information collected from boring investigations. For this, 11 learning parameters (depth, rock type, RQD, electrical resistivity, UCS, V_p, V_s, Young's modulus, unit weight, Poisson's ratio, RMR) from 13 local tunnel cases were selected, 337 learning data sets as well as 60 test data sets were prepared, and 6 machine learning algorithms (DT, SVM, ANN, PCA & ANN, RF, XGBoost) were tested for various hyperparameters for each algorithm. The results show that the mean absolute errors in RMR value from five algorithms except Decision Tree were less than 8 and a Support Vector Machine model is the best model. The applicability of the model, established through this study, was confirmed and this prediction model can be applied for more reliable rock mass classification when additional various data is continuously cumulated.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.99-112
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• 2021

This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.101-114
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• 2023

In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.5_4
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• pp.1173-1183
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• 2023

Over the past 20 years, Korea's overall import and export cargo volume has increased at an average annual rate of approximately 5.3%. About 99% of the cargo is still being transported by sea. Due to recent increases in maritime cargo volume, congestion in maritime logistics has become challenging due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts. Continuous monitoring of ports has become crucial. Various ground observation systems and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data have been utilized for monitoring ports and conducting numerous preliminary studies for the efficient operation of container terminals and cargo volume prediction. However, small and developing countries' ports face difficulties in monitoring due to environmental issues and aging infrastructure compared to large ports. Recently, with the increasing utility of artificial satellites, preliminary studies have been conducted using satellite imagery for continuous maritime cargo data collection and establishing ocean monitoring systems in vast and hard-to-reach areas. This study aims to visually detect ships docked at berths in the Busan New Port using high-resolution satellite imagery and quantitatively evaluate berth utilization rates. By utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery from Compact Advanced Satellite 500-1 (CAS500-1), Korea Multi-Purpose satellite-3 (KOMPSAT-3), PlanetScope, and Sentinel-2A, ships docked within the port berths were visually detected. The berth utilization rate was calculated using the total number of ships that could be docked at the berths. The results showed variations in berth utilization rates on June 2, 2022, with values of 0.67, 0.7, and 0.59, indicating fluctuations based on the time of satellite image capture. On June 3, 2022, the value remained at 0.7, signifying a consistent berth utilization rate despite changes in ship types. A higher berth utilization rate indicates active operations at the berth. This information can assist in basic planning for new ship operation schedules, as congested berths can lead to longer waiting times for ships in anchorages, potentially resulting in increased freight rates. The duration of operations at berths can vary from several hours to several days. The results of calculating changes in ships at berths based on differences in satellite image capture times, even with a time difference of 4 minutes and 49 seconds, demonstrated variations in ship presence. With short observation intervals and the utilization of high-resolution satellite imagery, continuous monitoring within ports can be achieved. Additionally, utilizing satellite imagery to monitor changes in ships at berths in minute increments could prove useful for small and developing country ports where harbor management is not well-established, offering valuable insights and solutions.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.