• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.211-232
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• 2014

Recently, there is a growing interest toward social commerce using SNS(Social Networking Service), and the size of its market is also expanding due to popularization of smart phones, tablet PCs and other smart devices. Accordingly, various studies have been attempted but it is shown that most of the previous studies have been conducted from perspectives of the users. The purpose of this study is to derive user-centered CSF(Critical Success Factor) of social commerce from the previous studies and analyze the CSF perception gap between social commerce service providers and users. The CSF perception gap between two groups shows that there is a difference between ideal images the service providers hope for and the actual image the service users have on social commerce companies. This study provides effective improvement directions for social commerce companies by presenting current business problems and its solution plans. For this, This study selected Korea's representative social commerce business Ticket Monster, which is dominant in sales and staff size together with its excellent funding power through M&A by stock exchange with the US social commerce business Living Social with Amazon.com as a shareholder in August, 2011, as a target group of social commerce service provider. we have gathered questionnaires from both service providers and the users from October 22, 2012 until October 31, 2012 to conduct an empirical analysis. We surveyed 160 service providers of Ticket Monster We also surveyed 160 social commerce users who have experienced in using Ticket Monster service. Out of 320 surveys, 20 questionaries which were unfit or undependable were discarded. Consequently the remaining 300(service provider 150, user 150)were used for this empirical study. The statistics were analyzed using SPSS 12.0. Implications of the empirical analysis result of this study are as follows: First of all, There are order differences in the importance of social commerce CSF between two groups. While service providers regard Price Economic as the most important CSF influencing purchasing intention, the users regard 'Trust' as the most important CSF influencing purchasing intention. This means that the service providers have to utilize the unique strong point of social commerce which make the customers be trusted rathe than just focusing on selling product at a discounted price. It means that service Providers need to enhance effective communication skills by using SNS and play a vital role as a trusted adviser who provides curation services and explains the value of products through information filtering. Also, they need to pay attention to preventing consumer damages from deceptive and false advertising. service providers have to create the detailed reward system in case of a consumer damages caused by above problems. It can make strong ties with customers. Second, both service providers and users tend to consider that social commerce CSF influencing purchasing intention are Price Economic, Utility, Trust, and Word of Mouth Effect. Accordingly, it can be learned that users are expecting the benefit from the aspect of prices and economy when using social commerce, and service providers should be able to suggest the individualized discount benefit through diverse methods using social network service. Looking into it from the aspect of usefulness, service providers are required to get users to be cognizant of time-saving, efficiency, and convenience when they are using social commerce. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the usefulness of social commerce through the introduction of a new management strategy, such as intensification of search engine of the Website, facilitation in payment through shopping basket, and package distribution. Trust, as mentioned before, is the most important variable in consumers' mind, so it should definitely be managed for sustainable management. If the trust in social commerce should fall due to consumers' damage case due to false and puffery advertising forgeries, it could have a negative influence on the image of the social commerce industry in general. Instead of advertising with famous celebrities and using a bombastic amount of money on marketing expenses, the social commerce industry should be able to use the word of mouth effect between users by making use of the social network service, the major marketing method of initial social commerce. The word of mouth effect occurring from consumers' spontaneous self-marketer's duty performance can bring not only reduction effect in advertising cost to a service provider but it can also prepare the basis of discounted price suggestion to consumers; in this context, the word of mouth effect should be managed as the CSF of social commerce. Third, Trade safety was not derived as one of the CSF. Recently, with e-commerce like social commerce and Internet shopping increasing in a variety of methods, the importance of trade safety on the Internet also increases, but in this study result, trade safety wasn't evaluated as CSF of social commerce by both groups. This study judges that it's because both service provider groups and user group are perceiving that there is a reliable PG(Payment Gateway) which acts for e-payment of Internet transaction. Accordingly, it is understood that both two groups feel that social commerce can have a corporate identity by website and differentiation in products and services in sales, but don't feel a big difference by business in case of e-payment system. In other words, trade safety should be perceived as natural, basic universal service. Fourth, it's necessary that service providers should intensify the communication with users by making use of social network service which is the major marketing method of social commerce and should be able to use the word of mouth effect between users. The word of mouth effect occurring from consumers' spontaneous self- marketer's duty performance can bring not only reduction effect in advertising cost to a service provider but it can also prepare the basis of discounted price suggestion to consumers. in this context, it is judged that the word of mouth effect should be managed as CSF of social commerce. In this paper, the characteristics of social commerce are limited as five independent variables, however, if an additional study is proceeded with more various independent variables, more in-depth study results will be derived. In addition, this research targets social commerce service providers and the users, however, in the consideration of the fact that social commerce is a two-sided market, drawing CSF through an analysis of perception gap between social commerce service providers and its advertisement clients would be worth to be dealt with in a follow-up study.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.22
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• pp.54-62
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• 2004

We examined the impacts of anthyopogenic pollutant (benzo〔a〕pyrene) on the growth and photosynthesis of five marine phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum, Heterosigma akashiwo, Prorocentrum dentatum, P. minimum, Aknshiwo sanguinea), which are dominant in Korean coastal water. After the 72 h exposure to benzo〔a〕pyrene, the dramatic decrease in cell numbers was observed in the range of 1 to 10 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ for S. costatum, P. minimum, P. dentatum, whereas for A. sanguinea and H. akashiwo at the low concentrations 0.1 to 1 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ . Among the 5 phytoplankton species, the highest growth inhibition concentration ($IC_{50}$/) was 6.20 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ for P. minimum, followed by 2.14 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ for P. dentatum, 1.68 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ for S. costatum, 0.74 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ for H. akashiwo, 0.10 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ for A. sanguinea. The five species exposed to the low concentration of 1 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ were recovered after transferring to new media, but the species exposed to the high concentrations of 10 and 100 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ were not recovered, with the exception of P. minimum. Those results indicate that the thecate dinoflagellate P. minimum is most tolerant to the chemical and the athecate dinoflagellate A. sanguinea is not. Geneyally, the cell-specific photosynthetic capacity of H. akashiwo exposed to the low concentrations of 0.1 and 1 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ was higher than that of the cells in the control, whereas the cells exposed to the high concentrations of 5 and 10 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ showed the negligible photosynthetic level by the first few days of the experiment. In the case of the cells exposed to the concentration of 5 $\mu\textrm{g}$ L$^{-1}$ , after 12 days of the experiment the photosynthetic capacity was increased toward the end of the experiment. This indicates that H. akashiwo may utilize the benzo〔a〕pyrene as a carton source for its growth when exposed to low concentrations. Results suggest that anthropogenic pollutants such as benzo〔a〕pyrene may have significant influence on the succession of phytoplankton species composition and the primary production in coastal marine environments.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.536-544
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• 2001

Three harmful algal bloom species with similar morphology, Cochlodinium polykrikoides, Gyodinium impudicum and Gymodinium catenatum have damaged to aquatic animals or human health by either making massive blooms or intoxication of shellfishes in a food chain. Eco-physiological and hydrodynamic studies on the harmful algae offer useful informations in the understanding their bloom mechanism by giving promising data for the prediction and modelling of harmful algal blooms event. Thus, we studied the abundance of these species in the coastal area of South Sea of Korea and their effects of temperature, salinity, irradiance and nutrient on the growth for the isolates. The timing for initial appearance of the three species around the coastal area of Namhaedo, Narodo and Wando was between Bate July and late August in 1999 when water temperature ranged from $22.8^{\circ}C\;to\;26.5^{\circ}C$ Vegetative cells of C. polykrikoides and G. impudicum were abundant until late September when water temperature had been dropped to less than $23^{\circ}C$. By contrast, vegetative cell of G. catenatum disappeared before early September, showing shorter period of abundance than the other two species in the South Sea. Both G. impudicum and G. catenatum revealed comparatively low density with a maximal cell density of 3,460 cells/L and 440 cells/L, respectively without making any bloom, while C. polykrikoides made massive blooms with a maximal cell density more than $40\times10^6$cells/L, The three species showed a better growth at the relatively higher water temperature ranging from 22 to $28^{\circ}C$ with their maximal growth rate at $25^{\circ}C$ in culture, which almost corresponded with the water temperature during the outbreak of C. polykrikoides in the coastal area of South Sea. Also, they all showed a relatively higher growth at the salinity from 30 to $35\%$. Specially, G. impudicum showed the euryhalic characteristics among the species, On the other hand, growth rate of G. catenatum decreased sharply with the increase of water temperature at the experimental ranges more than $35\%$. The higher of light intensities showed the better growth rates for the three species, Moreover, C. polykrikoides and G. impudirum continued their exponential growth even at 7,500 lux, the highest level of light intensity in the experiment, Therefore, It is assumed that C. polykrikoides has a physiological capability to adapt and utilize higher irradiance resulting in the higher growth rate without any photo inhibition response at the sea surface where there is usually strong irradiance during its blooming season. Although C. poiykikoides and G. impudicum continued their linear growth with the increase of nitrate ($NO_3^-$) and ammonium ($NH_4^-$) concentrations at less than the $40{\mu}M$, they didn't show any significant differences in growth rates with the increase of nitrate and ammonium concentrations at more than $40{\mu}M$, signifying that the nitrogen critical point for the growth of the two species stands between 13.5 and $40{\mu}M$. Also, even though both of the two species continued their linear growth with the increase of phosphate ($PO_4^{2-}$) concentrations at less than the $4.05{\mu}M$, there were no any significant differences in growth rates with the increase of phosphate concentrations at more than $4.05{\mu}M$, signifying that the phosphate critical point for the growth of the two species stands between 1.35 and $4.05{\mu}M$. On the other hand, C. polykrikoides has made blooms at the oligotrophic environment near Narodo and Namhaedo where the concentration of DIN and DIP are less than 1.2 and $0.3{\mu}M$, respectively. We attributed this phenomenon to its own ecological characteristics of diel vertical migration through which C. polykrikoides could uptake enough nutrients from the deep sea water near bottom during the night time irrespective of the lower nutrient pools in the surface water.

• Journal of Korean Medical classics
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• v.3
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• pp.218-247
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• 1989

As mentioned above, I got the next conclusion since I had considered the medical contents of the ancient period(上古時代) and the era of the old-Korea(古朝鮮時代) through several bibliographic records. 1. There were Pung-baeg(風伯), Uh-sa(雨師), Un-sa(雲師) that were the names of the governmental officials during the ancient period of Whan-ung(桓雄). Among them, Uh-sa specially managed the treatment for diseases. When we think of the significance of Pung(風)-which means the winds, Uh(雨)-which means the rain, Un(雲)-which means of clouds, we will find out that the human life will be affected by all kinds of phenomena of the nature. So I can infer that ancestries could prevent and treat diseases with adjusting them tn the changes in the weather. 2. There were five government officials(五事) in the ancient period of Whan-ung(桓雄上古時代). They are Uh-ga(牛加), Ma-ga(馬加), Ku-ga(狗加), Cheo-ga(猪加) and Yang-ga(羊加), and had charges of five important duties. Among them, Cheo-ga was set to a charge of treatment for diseases. So we can notice that there existed people who treated for diseases professionally. When we think of the meanings of Uh(牛)-which intends cows or bulls. Ma(馬)-which intends horses, Ku(狗)-which intends dogs, Cheo(猪)-which intends wild boars and Yang(羊)-which intends sheep, we can see that livestocks would be raised at that time, and they came to have more chances to digest meat. Since the digestion of meat became to be a burden on the stomach and the intestines, it might cause a lot of indigestive troubles. 3. When I compared Tan-gun Pal-ga(檀君八加) with the Oh-ga(五加) in the ancient period of Whan-ung(桓雄上古時代), I could tell that the community of Tan-gun's period is more advanced and specialized than one of Whan-ung's. When I think of the next sentence ; "The Prince Imperial, Bu-u(夫虞) become to be a Ro-ga(鷺加), who treat for diseases professionally.", I am sure that the treatment for diseases was more importment than any other things, because he was the third son of Tan-gun(檀君). 4. According to Tan-gun(檀君) mythology, Whan-ung(桓雄) came down from the heaven of the pure Yang(純陽) to the earth and then changed into a man who had had more Yang(陽) than Yin(陰). And a bear came up from the underground(or the cave) to the ground and then changed into a women who had had more Yin(陰) than Yang(陽). So both of them became to hold together. This story implicated that ancestors had taken a serious view of each of them, namely the ancestors didn't give the ascendance to the one side of them, and made much account of the mutual harmony. So I am sure that this fact coincided with the basic theories of oriental medical science. To refer to two proverbs of Tan-gun mythology that are "Ki-Sam-Chil-Il(忌三七日)" which means caring for twenty one days, and "Pul-Gyon-Il-Gwang-Baeg-Il(不見日光百日)" which means keeping indoors for one hundred days, I can tell you that "twenty-one-day" involves the principle of the birth of life, and "one-hundred-day" contains a preparatory period or the period of death to bear another life. 5. From the medical stuff, such as wormwood(艾), garlic(蒜), or wonder-working herbage(靈草), that had been written at the bibliographic papers of the ancient period(上古時代) and the era of the old-Korea(古朝鮮時代), I consider that many people might get a lot of women's diseases, indigestive troubles, and other diseases that were caused by the weakness, but with using various spices, such as the leaves of water pepper(蔘), they could prevent the occurrance of all kinds of diseases previously. So I regard this treatment as the medicine from food. 6. One of the sayings at Nae-gyong(內經) is that "The stone accupuncture(砭石) came from the orient." We can see both "wonder-wor-king wormwood(靈草)" and "dried wormwood(乾艾)" in the several bibliographic papers of the ancient history of the old-Korea(朝鮮上古史). From these records, I can be convinced that ancestors would utilize the acupuncture(針) and the moxa cautery(灸) to cure a patient of a disease. 7. Even though someone claimed that the book, "medical science and chemistry(醫學化學)" and "medical treatment(醫學大方)" had had been written during the ancient period of the old-Korea(上古朝鮮時代), such a fact can't have been ascertained historical evidence. But it has been handed down that there existed the original phonetic alphabet, such as the "Ka-Im-To alphabet(加臨土文字)" at that time. The terms about the diseases, which had been occurred at the community of the old-Korea(古朝鮮地域), were recorded fragmentarily at other records after that time. The origin of confucianism came from the race of the eastern barbarians, and Tae-Ho-Pok-Hi(太嗅伏義) and the king. Sun(舜) came from the eastern barbarians, too. The divination of tortoise shells at the country of Un(殷) is another from which was developed at the eastern barbarians' fortune-telling of animal bones. From these facts, I can infer that, by all means, they might record the medical knowledge which had been stored for thousands of years while contacting with china directly.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.21-29
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• 2011

Purpose: The purpose of this master's thesis is to utilize basic data in order to improve the quality of life of cancer patients who received radiation therapy after analysing related factors that influence patient's quality of life and obtaining information about physical, mental problems of patients. Materials and Methods: By using a structured questionnaire about various characteristics and forms of support, I carried out a survey targeting 107 patients that experienced radiation therapy at a university hospital in the Daejeon metropolitan area from July 15 to August 15, 2010 and analysed the factors influencing quality of life. Results: In case of pain due to disease, 65.15 and painless 81.87 showed a high grade quality of life. As body weight decreases, the quality of life become lower. When the grade of quality of life according to economic characteristics was compared, all items except treatment period showed a difference (P=0.000). When the score of social support, family support, medical support and self-esteem was low, the mark of quality of life showed respectively 61.71, 68.77, 71.31, and 69.39 on the basis of 128 points. When the score of support form was high, the mark of quality of life showed 90.47, 83.29, 90.40, and 90.36 (P<0.05). When analyzing the correlation between social support, family support, medical support and self-esteem and the degree of quality of life, social support was 0.768, family support 0.596, medical support 0.434, self-esteem 0.516. They indicated the correlation of meaningful quantity statistically (P<0.01). The factors that improved the quality of life were married state, having a job and painless status. As monthly income increases, the quality of life was also much improved (P<0.05). Among the factors related to quality of life, social support and medical support and higher self-esteem scores of the quality of life score increased 0.979 point, 0.508 points and 1.667 point, respectively. Conclusion: In conclusion, the quality of life of cancer patients that received radiation treatment is related to social support, medical support and self esteem. Self-esteem is an important factor that influenced quality of life, so if government offers works that doesn't affect patient's health, they are a useful method that maximize self-esteem and lessen their financial burden at the same time. Along with these policies, the developments of the attention of medical and the program for cancer patient's family are needed for the purpose of improving quality of life of cancer patients. Lastly, medical team, patients and family have to cooperate in harmony to overcome difficulties of cancer patients.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.1-32
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• 2011

I. Introduction: In Chinese electronics industry, the local wholesalers are still dominant but power is rapidly swifting from wholesalers to retailers because in recent foreign big retailers and local mass merchandisers are growing fast. During such transient period, conflicts among channel members emerge important issues. For example, when wholesalers who have more power exercise influence strategies to maintain status, conflicts among manufacturer, wholesaler, and retailer will be intensified. Korean electronics companies in China need differentiated channel strategies by dealing with wholesalers and retailers simultaneously to sell more Korean products in competition with foreign firms. For example, Korean electronics firms should utilize 'guanxi' or relational quality to form long-term relationships with whloesalers instead of power and conflict issues. The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of conflict, dependency, and influence strategies between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers on performance in Chinese electronics distribution channels. In particular, this paper proposes effective distribution strategies for Korean electronics companies in China by analyzing moderating effects of 'Guanxi'. II. Literature Review and Hypotheses: The specific purposes of this study are as follows. First, causes of conflicts between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers are examined from the perspectives of goal incongruence and role ambiguity and then effects of these causes are found out on perceived conflicts of local retailers. Second, the effects of dependency of local retailers upon wholesalers are investigated on local retailers' perceived conflicts. Third, the effects of non-coercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation and coercive strategies such as threats and legalistic pleas exercised by wholesalers are explored on perceived conflicts by local retailers. Fourth, the effects of level of conflicts perceived by local retailers are verified on local retailers' financial performance and satisfaction. Fifth, moderating effects of relational qualities, say, 'quanxi' between wholesalers and retailers are analyzed on the impact of wholesalers' influence strategies on retailers' performances. Finally, moderating effects of relational qualities are examined on the relationship between conflicts and performance. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, Figure 1 and the following research hypotheses are proposed and verified. III. Measurement and Data Analysis: To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 97 retailers who are selling Korean electronic products located around Central and Southern regions in China. Covariance analysis and moderated regression analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. IV. Conclusion: The following results were drawn using structural equation modeling and hierarchical moderated regression. First, goal incongruence perceived by local retailers significantly affected conflict but role ambiguity did not. Second, consistent with conflict spiral theory, the level of conflict decreased when retailers' dependency increased toward wholesalers. Third, noncoercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation implemented by wholesalers had significant effects on retailers' performance such as sales and satisfaction without conflict. On the other hand, coercive influence strategies such as threat and legalistic plea had insignificant effects on performance in spite of increasing the level of conflict. Fourth, 'guanxi', namely, relational quality between local retailers and wholesalers showed unique effects on performance. In case of noncoercive influence strategies, 'guanxi' did not play a role of moderator. Rather, relational quality and noncoercive influence strategies can serve as independent variables to enhance performance. On the other hand, when 'guanxi' was well built due to mutual trust and commitment, relational quality as a moderator can positively function to improve performance even though hostile, coercive influence strategies were implemented. Fifth, 'guanxi' significantly moderated the effects of conflict on performance. Even if conflict arises, local retailers who form solid relational quality can increase performance by dealing with dysfunctional conflict synergistically compared with low 'quanxi' retailers. In conclusion, this study verified the importance of relational quality via 'quanxi' between local retailers and wholesalers in Chinese electronic industry because relational quality could cross out the adverse effects of coercive influence strategies and conflict on performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.93-112
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• 2015

Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.101-124
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• 2018

Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.177-198
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• 2018

Recently, as economic property it has become necessary to acquire and utilize the framework for water resource measurement and performance management as the property of water resources changes to hold "public property". To date, the evaluation of water technology has been carried out by feasibility study analysis or technology assessment based on net present value (NPV) or benefit-to-cost (B/C) effect, however it is not yet systemized in terms of valuation models to objectively assess an economic value of technology-based business to receive diffusion and feedback of research outcomes. Therefore, K-water (known as a government-supported public company in Korea) company feels the necessity to establish a technology valuation framework suitable for technical characteristics of water resources fields in charge and verify an exemplified case applied to the technology. The K-water evaluation technology applied to this study, as a public interest goods, can be used as a tool to measure the value and achievement contributed to society and to manage them. Therefore, by calculating the value in which the subject technology contributed to the entire society as a public resource, we make use of it as a basis information for the advertising medium of performance on the influence effect of the benefits or the necessity of cost input, and then secure the legitimacy for large-scale R&D cost input in terms of the characteristics of public technology. Hence, K-water company, one of the public corporation in Korea which deals with public goods of 'water resources', will be able to establish a commercialization strategy for business operation and prepare for a basis for the performance calculation of input R&D cost. In this study, K-water has developed a web-based technology valuation model for public interest type water resources based on the technology evaluation system that is suitable for the characteristics of a technology in water resources fields. In particular, by utilizing the evaluation methodology of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Japan to match the expense items to the expense accounts based on the related benefit items, we proposed the so-called 'K-water's proprietary model' which involves the 'cost-benefit' approach and the FCF (Free Cash Flow), and ultimately led to build a pipeline on the K-water research performance management system and then verify the practical case of a technology related to "desalination". We analyze the embedded design logic and evaluation process of web-based valuation system that reflects characteristics of water resources technology, reference information and database(D/B)-associated logic for each model to calculate public interest-based and profit-based technology values in technology integrated management system. We review the hybrid evaluation module that reflects the quantitative index of the qualitative evaluation indices reflecting the unique characteristics of water resources and the visualized user-interface (UI) of the actual web-based evaluation, which both are appended for calculating the business value based on financial data to the existing web-based technology valuation systems in other fields. K-water's technology valuation model is evaluated by distinguishing between public-interest type and profitable-type water technology. First, evaluation modules in profit-type technology valuation model are designed based on 'profitability of technology'. For example, the technology inventory K-water holds has a number of profit-oriented technologies such as water treatment membranes. On the other hand, the public interest-type technology valuation is designed to evaluate the public-interest oriented technology such as the dam, which reflects the characteristics of public benefits and costs. In order to examine the appropriateness of the cost-benefit based public utility valuation model (i.e. K-water specific technology valuation model) presented in this study, we applied to practical cases from calculation of benefit-to-cost analysis on water resource technology with 20 years of lifetime. In future we will additionally conduct verifying the K-water public utility-based valuation model by each business model which reflects various business environmental characteristics.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2020

Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.