• 제목/요약/키워드: underestimation

검색결과 350건 처리시간 0.03초

지역 기후 모형을 이용한 한반도 강수 모의에서 수평 해상도의 영향 (Impact of Horizontal Resolution of Regional Climate Model on Precipitation Simulation over the Korean Peninsula)

  • 이영호;차동현;이동규
    • 대기
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.387-395
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    • 2008
  • The impact of horizontal resolution on a regional climate model was investigated by simulating precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. As a regional climate model, the SNURCM(Seoul National University Regional Climate Model) has 21 sigma layers and includes the NCAR CLM(National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model) for land-surface model, the Grell scheme for cumulus convection, the Simple Ice scheme for explicit moisture, and the MRF(Medium-Range Forecast) scheme for PBL(Planetary Boundary Layer) processing. The SNURCM was performed with 20 km resolution for Korea and 60 km resolution for East Asia during a 20-year period (1980-1999). Although the SNURCM systematically underestimated precipitation over the Korean Peninsula, the increase of model resolution simulated more precipitation in the southern region of the Korean Peninsula, and a more accurate distribution of precipitation by reflecting the effect of topography. The increase of precipitation was produced by more detailed terrain data which has a 10 minute terrain in the 20 km resolution model compared to the 30 minute terrain in the 60 km resolution model. The increase in model resolution and more detailed terrain data played an important role in generating more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. While the high resolution model with the same terrain data resulted in increasing of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula including the adjoining sea, the difference of the terrain data resolution only influenced the precipitation distribution of the mountainous area by increasing the amount of non-convective rain. In conclusion, the regional climate model (SNURCM) with higher resolution simulated more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula by reducing the systematic underestimation of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula.

파랑지배환경에서의 미세퇴적물 수직이동에 관한 모형 (A Model for Vertical Transport of Fine Sediment and Bed Erodibility in a Wave-Dominated Environment)

  • Hwang, Kyu-Nam
    • 한국해안해양공학회지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 1995
  • 파랑운동하에서 미세한 해저물질로 인한 혼탁도 예측은 해안 또는 호소환경에 민간이 끼친 영향을 평가하는데 있어서 중요하다. 파랑은 이토의 퇴적작용을 완화하고 급격한 부유농도구배를 형성하려는 경향이 있어 해저면 가까이의 퇴적물에 미치는 부하가 대체로 해수면 가까이의 것보다 크다. 물리적으로 실질적이나 단순화된 방법으로 질량보존법칙이 미세입자의 농도분포 진척과 비쇄파 진행파의 작용하에서 해저면 진흙층의 침식에 상당하는 깊이를 모의하는데 사용되어 왔다. 앞서의 현장 관측은 해저면 근처의 모의된 경향을 보여주고 있는데 특성은 농도가 크면 매우 적은 표층토사와 결합되어 진흙층을 액상화시킨다. 결론적으로 해저면 침식 깊이의 예측은 호수역학의 이해와 충분한 현장에서의 토사농도단면측정이 요구된다. 해저면을 무시한 해수면 토사농도만의 측정은 해저면 침식 길이의 총체적인 과소평가를 유발할 수 있다.

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TRMM/PR 자료와 지상 레이더와의 비교 (Comparison between TRMM/PR and Ground-Based Radar)

  • 하경자;오현미;서애숙;김정희
    • 한국지리정보학회지
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2002
  • TRMM/PR (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/Precipitation Radar)과 기상청의 C-band 도플러 레이더(제주, 군산, 부산)의 비교는 지상 레이더의 검증을 위해서 이루어졌다. 검증에 사용된 사례는 2000년 하계에 TRMM이 한반도 남부, 약 $36^{\circ}N$ 이남을 지나갈 때 강한 강수가 있는 날을 선택하였다. 서로 view angle, bandwidths와 주파수가 다른 두 개의 레이더를 정량적으로 비교하는 것은 어려운 문제이다. 본 연구에서는 이를 해결하기 위해서 지상 레이더와 TRMM/PR을 동일한 격자로 만들어 동일 영역에서 비교하였다. 지상 레이더로부터 관측된 반사도는 PR에 의해 관측된 반사도에 비해 4-9dBZ정도 낮은 것으로 밝혀졌으며 이는 기계적인 성능이나 지형과 같은 많은 이유에 의해서 발생할 수 있다. 세 개의 지상 레이더 사이트 모두에서 TRMM과 비교하여 30dBZ 이상에서 RMSE가 가장 높게 나타나서 강한 에코를 지상레이더가 잘 관측하지 못하는 것을 알 수 있었다.

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Estimation of CH4 oxidation efficiency in an interim landfill cover soil using CO2/CH4 ratios

  • Park, Jin-Kyu;Lee, Won-Jae;Ban, Jong-Ki;Kim, Eun-Cheol;Lee, Nam-Hoon
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2015
  • The first objective of this study was to discuss the applicability of the $CO_2/CH_4$ ratio method in order to assess $CH_4$ oxidation efficiency. To achieve this objective, a comparison between $CO_2/CH_4$ ratios and the mass balance method was conducted. The second objective of this study was to estimate the $CH_4$ oxidation efficiency in an interim landfill soil cover and assess how a $CH_4$ influx influences the $CH_4$ oxidation efficiency. The results showed that despite the $CO_2$ problems brought by respiration, the $CH_4$ oxidation efficiencies obtained by the $CO_2/CH_4$ ratio method led to similar results compared to the mass balance method. In this respect, the $CO_2/CH_4$ ratio method can be an indicator of the $CH_4$ oxidation efficiencies for landfill cover soils. The $CH_4$ oxidation efficiencies derived in this study through the $CO_2/CH_4$ ratio method ranged between 46% and 64%, and between 41% and 62% through the mass balance method. The results imply that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) default value of 10% for the $CH_4$ oxidation efficiency is an underestimation for landfill cover soils. $CH_4$ oxidation efficiency tends to be negatively correlated with $CH_4$ influx. Therefore, $CH_4$ influx reaching a landfill cover should be limited in order to increase the $CH_4$ oxidation efficiency.

Sentinel-1 위성영상을 활용한 소규모 저수지 저수량 추정 (Estimation of Small Reservoir Storage Using Sentinel-1 Image)

  • 장문엽;송주일;장초록;김한태
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2020
  • 연구목적: 본 연구에서는 Sentinel-1 위성이 촬영한 영상을 활용하여 천안지역 저수지의 저수량을 추정하는 모형을 개발하였다. 연구방법: 총 3개의 저수지를 대상으로 연구를 진행하였으며, 3개 저수지 모두 수위가 계측되고 있는 소규모 저수지이다. Sentinel-1 영상의 전 처리는 유럽항공우주국(ESA, European Space Agency)에서 배포한 SNAP을 활용하였으며, 임계치 분류 방식에 의해 수체를 구분하여 저수면적을 추정하였다. 추정한 저수면적에 대해서는 인공위성이 촬영한 날짜와 동일한 날짜에 드론으로 촬영하여 저수면적을 비교하였다. 저수지 저수면적을 추정한 것과 관측유량 자료와의 관계식을 도출하여 저수량 추정모형을 구축하였다. 연구 결과 및 결론: 위성영상분석을 통해 추정한 저수량 값은 실제 계측자료와 유사한 값을 가지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 다만, 여름철 저수지의 녹조, 부착돌말류 등으로 인해 저수면적의 과소 추정과 위성영상 해상도로 인한 저수면적이 10,000㎡ 이하인 저수지는 위성영상으로는 탐지가 어려운 문제점이 존재하는 것을 확인하였다.

Difference in Severity of Acute Rejection Grading between Superfical Cortex and Deep Cortex in Renal Allograft Biopsies

  • 이수진;김영기;김기혁
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.152-160
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    • 2007
  • 목 적 : 이식신 생검은 이식신 기능 이상의 원인, 거부반응의 정도, 예후 등을 확인하는데 도움이 된다. 그러나 이식신의 조직학적 변화가 신피질에 고르게 분포하지 않는 경우를 흔히 보게 된다. 따라서 본 연구는 이러한 이식신 생검에서의 잠재적인 표본추출의 오류를 평가하기 위하여 시행되었다. 방법 : 569개의 이식신 생검 표본 중에서 Banff criteria에 준하는 급성 거부반응을 보이고 있으며, 신피막부터 수질까지의 전 층을 포함하고 있는 신생검 표본 26개를 조사하였다. Banff criteria를 변형하여 조직의 변화를 간질성 염증(0-3+), 부종(0-3+), 요세관간질염(0-3+)으로 구분하여 급성거부반응의 등급을 표면 피질, 깊은 피질과 피질에 근접한 수질층 각각을 비교하여 조직학적 분석을 시행하였다. 결과 : 간질성 염증(P=0.019), 부종(P=0.023), 요세관 거부등급(P=0.019)에서 깊은 피질에서 표면 피질에 비해 급성 거부반응의 정도가 심하였다. 결론 : 이식신의 급성 거부반응을 진단하기 위하여 신생검을 실시 할 경우 깊은 피질이 포함되지 않으면 급성 거부반응을 과소 평가 할 수 있으므로 주의해야 할 것으로 사료된다.

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후향연산 모형 (Back-calculation model)을 이용한 국내 HIV 감염자와 AIDS 환자의 추계 (Prediction of HIV and AIDS Incidence Using a Back-calculation Model in Korea)

  • 이주영;고운영;기미경;김지연;황진수
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2002
  • Objective : To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. Methods : Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods Results : The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were $708{\sim}1,426$ in Weibull distribution and $918{\sim}1,980$ in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was $16{\sim}25$ in Weibull distribution and $13{\sim}26$ in Gamma distribution. Conclusions : The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were $1.4{\sim}4.0$ times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea, further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.

Validity of Self-Reported Height, Weight, and Body Mass Index of the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey Questionnaire

  • Bae, Ji-Suk;Joung, Hyo-Jee;Kim, Jong-Yeon;Kwon, Kyoung-Nam;Kim, Yoon-Jung;Park, Soon-Woo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제43권5호
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: Self-reported anthropometric values, such as height and weight, are used to calculate body mass index (BMI) and assess the prevalence of obesity among adolescents. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of selfreported height, weight, and BMI of the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey questionnaire. Methods: A convenience sample of 137 middle school students and 242 high school students completed a selfadministered questionnaire in 2008. Body height and weight were directly measured after self-reported values were obtained from the questionnaire survey. Sensitivity, specificity, and kappa statistics were computed in order to evaluate the validity of the prevalence of obesity (BMI $\geq$ 95th percentile or $\geq$ $25;kg/$m^2$) based on self-reported data. Results: Self-reported weight and BMI tended to be underestimated. Self-reported height tended to be overestimated among middle school females and high school males. Obese adolescents tended to underestimate their weight and BMI and overestimate their height more than non-obese adolescents. The prevalence estimate of obesity based on selfreported data (10.6%) was lower than that based on directly measured data (15.3%). The estimated sensitivity of obesity based on self-reported data was 69.0% and the specificity was 100.0%. The value of kappa was 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.70 - 0.88). Conclusions: This study demonstrated that self-reported height and weight may lead to the underestimation of BMI and consequently the prevalence of obesity. These biases should be taken into account when self-reported data are used for monitoring the prevalence and trends of obesity among adolescents nationwide.

일부 중학생의 체중에 따른 체중인식, 체중조절 및 식행동에 관한 연구 (Weight-related Perceptions, Practices and Eating Behaviors of Middle School Students: Associations with BMI)

  • 김지은;민혜선
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2008
  • This study investigated the association between the weight status of middle school students and the various weight-related characteristics including desired weight, weight perception, weight-related practice, physical activity, and overeating behavior. Questionnaires were administered to 473 middle school students (178 boys and 295 girls) in Daejeon. Boys and girls were divided into three groups respectively; (1) underweight (BMI<$5^{th}$ percentile) (2) normal weight ($5^{th}$ percentile$\leq$BMI<$85^{th}$ percentile) (3) overweight (BMI$\leq85^{th}$ percentile). Using BMI calculated from measured height and weight, 14.0% of boys and 6.8% of girls were underweight, and 16.3% of boys and 14.2% of girls were overweight. However, among this sample of students, 38.4% of boys and 13.6% of girls perceived themselves as underweight and 29.4% of boys and 44.9% of girls perceived themselves as overweight. We found that overweight students reported their body weights lower and their heights higher compared to non-overweight students, resulting in an underestimation of BMI. Based on desired BMI, 79.9% of the girls desired to be underweight and 73.0% of the boys desired to be normal weight. Overweight or normal weight students were less satisfied with their body weights than underweight students. Girls had more weight control experience and concern compared to boys. Overweight girls spent longer times in watching TV compared to non-overweight girls (p < 0.001) and had more overeating behaviors (p < 0.05). Overweight students reported that they ate snacks less frequently than non-overweight students, which may be due to their tendency to report less eating. In conclusion, significant gender differences and weight status differences existed in weight perception, weight satisfaction, and weight control experience and concern. Because perception of overweight is likely to lead to unhealthy eating behaviors and weight control, efforts for adolescents to improve accuracy of weight perceptions and to understand the benefits of being healthier are needed.

기후예측시스템(GloSea5) 열대성저기압 계절예측 특성 (Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Storms using GloSea5 Hindcast)

  • 이상민;이조한;고아름;현유경;김윤재
    • 대기
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.209-220
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    • 2020
  • Seasonal predictability and variability of tropical storms (TCs) simulated in the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is assessed in Northern Hemisphere in 1996~2009. In the KMA, the GloSea5-Global Atmosphere version 3.0 (GloSea5-GA3) that was previously operated was switched to the GloSea5-Global Coupled version 2.0 (GloSea5-GC2) with data assimilation system since May 2016. In this study, frequency, track, duration, and strength of the TCs in the North Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and North Atlantic regions derived from the GloSea5-GC2 and GloSea5-GA3 are examined against the best track data during the research period. In general, the GloSea5 shows a good skill for the prediction of seasonally averaged number of the TCs in the Eastern and Western Pacific regions, but underestimation of those in the North Atlantic region. Both the GloSea5-GA3 and GC2 are not able to predict the recurvature of the TCs in the North Western Pacific Ocean (NWPO), which implies that there is no skill for the prediction of landfalls in the Korean peninsula. The GloSea5-GC2 has higher skills for predictability and variability of the TCs than the GloSea5-GA3, although continuous improvements in the operational system for seasonal forecast are still necessary to simulate TCs more realistically in the future.