• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.135-143
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• 2009

The majority of development projects fail to meet their target schedule and cost, with the overrun typically between 40 and 200 percent. These overruns happen because the planners underestimate the work or do not consider the need to rework at project planning. Representative schedule planning/management techniques such as Gantt Chart, PERT/CPM etc. that are used in domestic project planning are unable to reflect rework. This paper proposes a method to consider rework to provide more realistic estimates at schedule planning. Additionally, to prevent the underestimation of the work this paper proposes a simulation method that calculates a probabilistic estimated schedule and the associated variance based on the random variable modeling of individual task completion dates.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.241-252
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• 2013

Because of financial and safety concerns, there are needs for more accurate prediction of bridge behavior. Underestimation of the bridge load carrying capacity can have serious economic consequences, as deficient bridges must be repaired or rehabilitated. Therefore, the knowledge of the actual bridge behavior under live load may lead to a more realistic calculation of the load carrying capacity and eventually this may allow for more bridges to remain in service with or without minor repairs. The presented research is focused on the reliability evaluation of the actual load carrying capacity of existing bridges based on the field testing. Seventeen existing bridges were tested under truck load to confirm their adequacy of reliability. The actual response of existing bridge structures under live load is measured. Reliability analysis is performed on the selected representative bridges designed in accordance with AASHTO codes for bridge component (girder). Bridges are first evaluated based on the code specified values and design resistance. However, after the field testing program, it is possible to apply the experimental results into the bridge reliability evaluation procedures. Therefore, the actual response of bridge structures, including unintentional composite action, partial fixity of supports, and contribution of nonstructural members are considered in the bridge reliability evaluation. The girder distribution factors obtained from the tests are also applied in the reliability calculation. The results indicate that the reliability indices of selected bridges can be significantly increased by reducing uncertainties without sacrificing the safety of structures, by including the result of field measurement data into calculation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.257-276
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• 1996

In North America, a large number of concrete old slab-on-steel girder bridges, classified noncomposite, were built without any mechanic connections. The stablizing effect due to slab/girder interface contact and friction on the steel girders was totally neglected in practice. Experimental results indicate that this effect can lead to a significant underestimation of the load-carrying capacity of these bridges. In this paper, the two major components-concrete slab and steel girders, are treat as two deformable bodies in contact. A finite element procedure with considering the effect of friction and contact for the analysis of concrete slab-on-steel girder bridges is presented. The interface friction phenomenon and finite element formulation are described using an updated configuration under large deformations to account for the influence of any possible kinematic motions on the interface boundary conditions. The constitutive model for frictional contact are considered as slip work-dependent to account for the irreversible nature of friction forces and degradation of interface shear resistance. The proposed procedure is further validated by experimental bridge models.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.295-305
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• 2017

This paper reviews current status of the unified approach known as integrated safety assessment (ISA), as well as the associated SCAIS (simulation codes system for ISA) computer platform. These constitute a proposal, which is the result of collaborative action among the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), University of Madrid (UPM), and NFQ Solutions S.L, aiming to allow independent regulatory verification of industry quantitative risk assessments. The content elaborates on discussions of the classical treatment of time in conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) sequences and states important conclusions that can be used to avoid systematic and unacceptable underestimation of the failure exceedance frequencies. The unified ISA method meets this challenge by coupling deterministic and probabilistic mutual influences. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated with some examples of its application to a real size plant.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.285-288
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• 2008

We analyzed evaporation data in the Japanese Ocean Flux Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO) Ver.2. There exists huge evaporation in Gulf Stream, Kuroshio Extension, the ocean dessert and the southern part of the Indian Ocean. The temporal variation of evaporation is overwhelmingly large, of which the standard deviation is more than 120(mm), in the Kuroshio Extension region. Also, the result of harmonic analysis gives that this large variation is closely related to annual variation. In addition, the first EOF mode shows long-term variation showing the maximum amplitude between 1992 and 1994 and remarkable decrease after 1994, and large amplitude in the equatorial region and northeast of Australia. The second and third modes were strongly influenced by El Nino. Moreover, we compared J-OFURO2 evaporation product with other products. We used six kinds of data sets (HOAPS3 and GSSTF2 of satellite data, NRA1, NRA2, ERA40 and JRA25 of reanalysis data) for comparison. Most products show underestimation in the most regions, in particular, in the northern North Pacific, mid-latitudes of the eastern South Pacific, and high-latitudes of the South Pacific compared with J-OFUR02. On the other hand, JRA25 and NRA2 show large overestimation in the equatorial regions. RMS difference between NRA2 and J-OFURO2 in the Kuroshio Extension was significantly large, more than 120(mm).

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.745-750
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• 2002

The effects of recording interval (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 min) on the estimation of some grazing behavior variables in beef cows and calves (<4 months old) were investigated in a daytime grazing (7 h) system utilizing a bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge) pasture (a 1.1 ha paddock and a 0.4 ha resting area). Recording intervals of 10-30 min tended to underestimate the time spent grazing and ruminating and overestimate the time spent resting by animals, whereas intervals of 1-5 min resulted in almost constant estimates. In all grazing activities, the errors of estimation became larger when the recording interval exceeded 5 min. The accuracy of estimation was higher for grazing time>rumination time>resting time. An increase in recording interval always decreased estimates of the distance walked by animals. It was concluded that recording intervals of 1-5 min provide reliable estimates of the time spent grazing, ruminating and resting. It was also concluded that positioning of animals at 1 min intervals may provide estimates of walking distance with acceptable bias toward underestimation.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.52-58
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• 2012

In this study, the effect of standard phase difference in calibration of carbonyl compounds (CC) was evaluated by using their standards prepared in both gaseous and liquid phase. For this analysis, standards in both phases were prepared for 6 different CCs (formaldehyde (FA), acetaldehyde (AA), propionaldehyde (PA), butyraldehyde (BA), isovaleraldehyde (IA) and valeraldehyde (VA)) at similar concentration levels. Their gaseous standard was calibrated after derivatization with three types of DNPH cartridge, and their calibration results were compared against liquid-phase standards. Although there was a strong compatibility between 2 phases for CCs with lower molecular weights (e.g., formaldehyde and acetaldehyde), it was not the case for the heavier CCs. The results of our analysis indicate that the analytical bias of the heavier CCs can be significantly large (by more than a few tens of %). As a result, underestimation of hevier CCs can be significant, if their gaseous samples are quantified by liquid phase standard.

• The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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• v.26
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• pp.31-39
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• 2007

Background and main issue: In the Korean insurance market, an outstanding issue is the decrease of margin of risk ratio. This affects the solvency and profitability of insurance companies. Insurance medicine, which has been developed in Western countries, is so-called medical risk selection or medical underwriting. Medical risk selection is based on clinical follow-up study and mortality analysis methodology. Unfortunately, there have been few clinical follow-up studies, and no intercompany disease analysis system is available in the Korean insurance market. In practice, we use underwriting guidelines, which were developed by some global reinsurance companies. However, these guidelines were developed under clinical follow-up studies performed abroad. So, we cannot rule out underestimation of excess mortality factors such as mortality ratio, excess death rate, and life expectancy. It is necessary to perform medical assessment in claims administration. Comparing the insured's statement by medical records with products' benefit according to this procedure, we can make sound claim decisions and participate in the role of sound underwriting. We can call this scientific procedure as the verification of medical claims review. Another area of medical claims review is medical counsel for claims staff. Result: There is another insurance medicine in addition to medical risk selection. Independent medical assessment by medical records of insured is medical claims review. Medical claims review is composed of verification and counsel.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.1-14
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• 2000

We consider statistical methods for nonresponse problem in social and economic sample surveys. To create a complete data set, which does not include item nonresponse data, imputation methods are generally used. In this paper, we introduce some imputation methods and compare them with one another. Also, we consider some problems, which occur when an imputed data set is treated as a response data set. Due to the imputed values, the true variance of the estimator after imputation is increased by the imputation variance. However, since usual naive variance estimator constructed from the imputed data set does not estimate the imputation variance, the true variance of the estimator after imputation tends to be underestimated. Theoretical reason is investigated and serious results are explained through a simulation study. Finally, some adjusted variance estimation methods to compensate for underestimation are presented and discussed.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2007.10a
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• pp.278-281
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to develop snow and sea ice detection algorithm in Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) meteorological data processing system. Since COMS has only five channels, it is not affordable to use microwave or shortwave infrared data which are effective and generally used for snow detection. In order to estimate snow and sea ice coverage, combinations between available channel data(mostly visible and 3.7 ${\mu}m$) are applied to the algorithm based on threshold method. As a result, the COMS snow and sea ice detection algorithm shows reliable performance compared to MODIS products with channel limitation. Specifically, there is partial underestimation over the complicated vegetation area and overestimation over the area of high level clouds such as cirrus. Some corrections are performed by using water vapor and infrared channels to remove cloud contamination and by applying NDVI to detect more snow pixels for the underestimated area.