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A Method for Schedule Simulation Considering Rework and Uncertainty  

Kim, Chan-Mook (아주대학교 시스템공학과)
Park, Young-Won (아주대학교 시스템공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society for Railway / v.12, no.1, 2009 , pp. 135-143 More about this Journal
Abstract
The majority of development projects fail to meet their target schedule and cost, with the overrun typically between 40 and 200 percent. These overruns happen because the planners underestimate the work or do not consider the need to rework at project planning. Representative schedule planning/management techniques such as Gantt Chart, PERT/CPM etc. that are used in domestic project planning are unable to reflect rework. This paper proposes a method to consider rework to provide more realistic estimates at schedule planning. Additionally, to prevent the underestimation of the work this paper proposes a simulation method that calculates a probabilistic estimated schedule and the associated variance based on the random variable modeling of individual task completion dates.
Keywords
Schedule Planning; Schedule Simulation; PERT/CPM; DSM(Design Structure Matrix);
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