• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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EXPLORING POTENTIAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR PROCUREMENT OF PRIVATELY FINANCED INFRASTRUCTURE

  • Xiao-Hua Jin;Chunlu Liu;Jian Zuo;Guomin Zhang
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.132-141
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    • 2011
  • Australia has joined many governments to adopt public-private partnership (PPP) as a major strategy for procuring infrastructure for decades. However, failures have occurred although the market has been considered to be a mature and sophisticated one. Failures have typically been traced back to inappropriate economic evaluation and a lack of value-for-money. In particular, a literature review has identified that there was no holistic consideration on the evaluation of procurement transactions of PPP projects. The transaction costs of PPPs were not handled properly. In this paper, theories of transaction cost economics are proposed for the purpose of such a holistic institutional economic evaluation. These theories are analysed in order to identify potential critical success factors for a strategic infrastructure procurement framework. The potential critical success factors are identified and grouped into a number of categories that match the theories of transaction cost economics. These categories include (1) Asset Specificity, (2) Organizational Capability, (3) Transaction Frequency, (4) Behavioural Uncertainty, and (5) Environmental Uncertainty. These potential critical success factors may be subject to an empirical test in the future. The proposed framework will offer decision makers with an insight into project life cycle economic outcomes needed to successfully deliver PPPs.

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A Systems Engineering Approach to Ex-Vessel Cooling Strategy for APR1400 under Extended Station Blackout Conditions

  • Saja Rababah;Aya Diab
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.32-45
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    • 2023
  • Implementing Severe Accident Management (SAM) strategies is crucial for enhancing a nuclear power plant's resilience and safety against severe accidents conditions represented in the analysis of Station Blackout (SBO) event. Among these critical approaches, the In-Vessel Retention (IVR) through External Reactor Vessel Cooling (IVR-ERVC) strategy plays a key role in preventing vessel failure. This work is designed to evaluate the efficacy of the IVR strategy for a high-power density reactor APR1400. The APR1400's plant is represented and simulated under steady-state and transient conditions for a station blackout (SBO) accident scenario using the computer code, ASYST. The APR1400's thermal-hydraulic response is analyzed to assess its performance as it progresses toward a severe accident scenario during an extended SBO. The effectiveness of emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMGs) are systematically examined to assess their ability to mitigate the accident. A group of associated key phenomena selected based on Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) and uncertain parameters are identified accordingly and then propagated within DAKOTA Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework until a statistically representative sample is obtained and hence determine the uncertainty bands of key system parameters. The Systems Engineering methodology is applied to direct the progression of work, ensuring systematic and efficient execution.

MANUFACTURER′S PROCUREMENT DECISION ANALYSIS IN A SUPPLY CHAIN WITH MULTIPLE SUPPLIERS

  • Kim, Bowon;Park, Kwang Tae;Lee, Seungchul
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2000
  • Supply chain management issues faced by a manufacturing company are considered in this paper. The supply chain consists of a manufacturing company and its suppliers. The manufacturer produces multiple products with inputs (e.g., raw materials) from the suppliers, but each product needs a different mix of these inputs. The market demand for the products is uncertain. We develop a mathematical model and algorithm, which can help the manufacturer to solve its procurement decision problem: how much of raw material to order from which supplier. The model incorporates such factors as market demand uncertainty, product's input requirement, supplier's as well as manufacturer's capacity, plus other costs comparable with those in a typical newsboy problem. Numerical examples are presented to see the interacting effects among critical parameters and variables.

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Aligning Executive Scanning with Strategic Management : The Stages of Executive Scanning Process in Healthcare Organizations

  • Suh, Won-S.
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.93-111
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    • 2007
  • The thrust in this paper is to discuss the dimensions of executive scanning process (ESP) that support continuous scanning activities by executives. Executive scanning is especially important for the healthcare organizations in these days since the environment they are faced with is extremely complex and dynamic. While much has been written about ESP, two important aspects have been underemphasized in the past. The first is a link to the strategic management process (SMP) or the issue of strategy-scanning alignment. The second is a feedback loop to verify the quality of information generated through scanning process. This paper discusses the improved ESP by adding these two features.

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Individual behavioral competences for construction project risk manager

  • Lee, Kwang-Pyo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Byung-ki;Hyun, Hosang
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.183-187
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    • 2015
  • The Risk Management (RM) is applied for managing uncertainty of project. In this circumstance, the competences of RM have a direct effect on the performance of its application. Especially, as the RM, one of the project management areas, is a peopleoriented management field, the individual behavioral competences are significant for a risk manager. Therefore, this paper describes the development of individual behavioral competences for construction project risk manager. For this, the research classifies the individual behavioral competences of RM. And, the Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) are applied to verify a validity of the competences. Likewise, a reliability analysis using Cronbach's alpha values is performed to test internal consistency. Based on the results, the authors carry out the Focus Group Interview (FGI) on expert panels of construction RM to confirm the hierarchical model of the individual behavioral competences. It is concluded that the proposed hierarchical model of individual behavioral competences helps construction companies to diagnose the competences of their project risk manager for progressing.

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Risk management of international construction joint ventures - Analysis of factors for success or failures of international JV projects in global areas

  • Kazuto OTANI
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2024.07a
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    • pp.1309-1309
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    • 2024
  • This resarch showed that the factors contributing to the success or failure of international joint ventures (IJVs), such as those between Japanese and American engineering companies, are influenced by information sharing and consensus building within the IJV. Based on the available information about such IJV projects, the factors were evaluated by the following statical method. However, the mechanism is not simple and includes many mediating and interaction effects between explanatory variables due to the uncertainty of the environment surrounding the project. Based on existing research on risk management in Project management area, it was revealed that the analyzed factors behind IJV success and failure based on the analysis model that integrates the above perspectives and incorporates typical risk items for projects as pointed out by PM-related academic and practionors societies. It was demonstrated that it can be explained quantitatively by applying the Multivariate analysis method. This analysis method could be expanded to the future evaluation of the projects risk item during the planning stage of the projects.

Multi-objective production scheduling of precast concrete based on reinforcement learning

  • Leting ZU;Wenzhu LIAO
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2024.07a
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2024
  • To enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions in prefabricated construction, optimizing the production scheduling of precast concrete is considered an effective approach. Due to the unique characteristics of precast concrete during production, traditional scheduling models are no longer applicable. This present study introduces practical considerations, such as a limited number of molds, buffers, uncertainty of order arrivals and vehicles. Furthermore, to meet the requirements of contemporary industrial development, a mulit-objective optimization scheduling model is formulated by integrating total processing time, on-time delivery rate and work station idle time. A solution based on reinforcement learning algorithm is devised. Results indicate that this method can effectively undergo training and achieve outstanding performance in addressing such issues. The model has the potential to significantly reduce decision-making time in precast production, thereby contributing to the sustainable development of prefabricated construction.

Energy-Efficient Power Control for Underlaying D2D Communication with Channel Uncertainty: User-Centric Versus Network-Centric

  • Ding, Jianfeng;Jiang, Lingge;He, Chen
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2016
  • Most existing resource management problem models arise from the original desire of allocating resources in either a user-centric or network-centric manner. The difference between their objectives is obvious: user-centric methods attempt to optimize the utility of individual users, whereas network-centric models intend to optimize the collective utilities of the entire network. In this paper, from the above two aspects, we analyze the robust power control problem in device-to-device (D2D) communication underlaying cellular networks, where two types of channel uncertainty set (e.g., ellipsoidal and column-wise) are considered. In the user-centric method, we formulate the problem into the form of a Stackelberg game, where the energy efficiency (EE) of each user is the ingredient of utility function. In order to protect the cellular user equipment's (CUE) uplink transmission, we introduce a price based cost function into the objectives of D2D user equipment (DUE). The existence and uniqueness of the game with the influence of channel uncertainty and price are discussed. In the network-centric method, we aim to maximize the collective EE of CUEs and DUEs. We show that by the appropriate mathematical transformation, the network-centric D2D power control problem has the identical local solution to that of a special case of the user-centric problem, where price plays a key role. Numerical results show the performance of the robust power control algorithms in the user-centric and network-centric models.

Evaluation of Reference Evapotranspiration in South Korea according to CMIP5 GCMs and Estimation Methods (CMIP5 GCMs과 추정 방법에 따른 우리나라 기준증발산량 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Jung, Imgook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.153-168
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    • 2017
  • The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

A Cross-Country Comparative Study on the Effect of Online Review Search on Purchase Satisfaction of Existing Buyers (온라인 후기 탐색이 기존 구매자의 구매 만족도에 미치는 영향의 국가 간 비교연구)

  • Qin, PengFei;Kwon, Sundong
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.53-73
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    • 2020
  • Many prior studies have been conducted that positive reviews increase the intention to purchase. However, there are very few papers that have studied the impact of review search on purchase satisfaction. It is meaningful to study the impact of review search on purchase satisfaction as it can lead the business successfully by inducing repurchase. There is also no study of how review search have different effects on purchase satisfaction among countries. Given the growing number of cross-border e-commerce, we believe that the need for research is high because identifying these differences between countries can have a very important impact on a company's successful overseas expansion. Therefore, in this study, the impact of positive and negative review search on purchase satisfaction and the national impact were set up as a research model. In order to verify this research model, the survey was distributed to those who experienced online purchase in Korea and China, and a total of 234 copies were collected, including 125 copies in Korea, 109 copies in China, and the research model was verified using Smart-PLS structural equation analysis tools. First, positive review search has been shown to positively affect purchase satisfaction. Second, it has been shown that negative review search also has a positive effect on purchase satisfaction. Third, the impact of positive and negative review search on purchase satisfaction was different between Korea and China. While Korea is more aggressive in review search than China due to its high tendency to avoid uncertainty, China is less likely to avoid uncertainty than Korea and is more likely to rely on brand familiarity. Therefore, according to the uncertainty avoidance moderation effect the impact of positive and negative review search on purchase satisfaction was higher in Korea than in China. In this study, Shopping mall managers need to take strategic measures to maximize shopping mall performance by recognizing positive aspects of negative review search on purchase satisfaction. Companies and managers in Korea and China can establish strategies to promote product sales when companies enter the global market.