• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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An Empirical Study on the Consumer Satisfaction and Loyalty of Chinese Commercial Banks: Focusing the related Variables of Perceived Service Quality and Uncertainty Avoidance (중국 상업은행 소비자의 만족도/충성도에 관한 연구: 서비스 인식과 불확실성회피를 중심으로)

  • Zhao, Na
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.159-180
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to examine how perceived service quality, value congruence influences uncertainty avoidance, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty, and in turn, provides insight for Korean banks when they penetrate into the Chinese marketplace. In so doing, this study conducts a survey on participants who are using banking services in the Changchun, Jinan, Guangzhou of Jilin Province, Shandong Province and Guangdong Province. The findings are as followed. First, Uncertainty avoidance plays an important mediating role in the relationship between perceived service quality and customer satisfaction, between value congruence and customer satisfaction. Uncertainty avoidance has a direct effect on customer satisfaction, but is significantly negative. Second, value congruence has a direct effect on uncertainty avoidance, but is significantly negative. Third, customer satisfaction has a direct effect on attitudinal loyalty and behavioral loyalty.

집권정당별 주가수익률과 경기변동 통계분석 중 충격반응 분석

  • Kim, Jong-Gwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2012.11a
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    • pp.493-497
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    • 2012
  • 개인투자자들은 자신이 지지한 정당이 집권을 하였을 경우 경제상황이 좋아질 것이라는 기대감(expectation)을 갖게 된다. 이에 따라 개인투자자들은 지지한 정당이 집권하였을 때, 경제의 불확실성(uncertainty)이 줄어들고 주가도 상승할 것이라고 믿는 경향이 있다. 이러한 개인투자자들은 실제로 주식투자 규모를 늘려가는 상황을 만들며, 소형주(small cap)를 비롯하여 가치주(value stocks), 경기민감주 등에 대한 투자규모를 늘리는 경우가 흔히 발생하고 있다. 이와 같은 새로운 정부에 대한 기대감이 반영되면서 새로운 정부의 집권 초기에 이들 개인투자자들은 주식보유기간을 보다 길게 가져가려는 경향도 보인다. 반면에 개인투자자들의 경우 자신이 지지하지 않는 집권정부가 들어섰을 때 경제의 불확실성(uncertainty)이 증가한다고 판단하여 보유주식을 처분하려는 경향이 증대되고 있다. 한국의 경우 개인투자자들의 투표성향이 체감 소득수준 및 집권정부별 경제정책에 따라 영향을 받을 수 있는 것으로 나타나 주가수익률 등의 움직임에 주목할 필요가 있다고 판단된다.

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THE OVERPAYMENT IN MULTIPLE BIDDING (기업합병: 다수경쟁에서의 과잉지분에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, You-Tay
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.319-339
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    • 1997
  • This paper provides an empirical analysis of the winner's curse in the context of corporate takeovers. The study analyzes conditions which make overpayment likely. For a sample of corporate takeovers completed between 1982 and 1993, the analysis shows that the volatility of targets relative to that of acquirers (not the uncertainty of the target or acquirer alone) has a definitive impact on the magnitude of the winner's curse. Also, the incidence is more pronounced in multiple-bidder than in single-bidder contests. Specifically, white knights are more likely to overpay than other acquirers in multiple bidding situations. Furthermore, the study finds that the process of competitive bidding is a zero sum game since the greater returns to the shareholders of target firms in multiple-bid contests come at the expense of the acquiring companies, Overall, the evidence suggests that the bidders need to become more conservative, particularly as the relative uncertainty of the target's 'true' value and the number of bidders increase.

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Stability Analysis of Linear Uncertain Differential Equations

  • Chen, Xiaowei;Gao, Jinwu
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.2-8
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    • 2013
  • Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normolity, duality, subadditivity and product axioms. Uncertain process is a sequence of uncertain variables indexed by time. Canonical Liu process is an uncertain process with stationary and independent increments. And the increments follow normal uncertainty distributions. Uncertain differential equation is a type of differential equation driven by the canonical Liu process. Stability analysis on uncertain differential equation is to investigate the qualitative properties, which is significant both in theory and application for uncertain differential equations. This paper aims to study stability properties of linear uncertain differential equations. First, the stability concepts are introduced. And then, several sufficient and necessary conditions of stability for linear uncertain differential equations are proposed. Besides, some examples are discussed.

Regulatory Aspect of Risk Assessment and Management

  • Lee, Hyomin;EunkyungYoon;Jeeyeun Han
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.17
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2001
  • Risk assessment is useful tool making good decisions on the risks of certain hazardous com-pound and suggests safe margin through scientific process using toxicological data, statistical tool, exposure value and relevant variants. The goal of risk management is to protect the public health from hazardous compound based on result of risk assessment having reality. For the suggestion of exact man-aging information, risk assessment must be designed to represent a "plausible estimate" of the exposure to the individuals and to minimize uncertainty. Risk assessment methodology and knowledge are expected to change more rapidly than before and up-to-date methodology should be applied in regulatory aspects through the Agency. For the useful application of risk assessment, the communication between the risk assessor and the risk manager is needed before the initiation of the risk assessment and upon its completion. Generally, the risk assessment itself as a practical tool in the regulatory decision making process would be regarded with social economic impact.ic impact.

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Task Characteristics and Utilization of Electronic Approval System : Media Richness Theory Perspective (업무특성과 전자결재시스템 활용간의 관계에 대한 탐색적 연구:매체 풍부성 이론 관점)

  • 김영걸;오승엽
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2000
  • With the rapidly changing external environment and the increasing internal process complexity more and more organizations are adopting the Electronic Approval System(EAS) for their competitiveness. This paper defines EAS as a core organizational communication medium investigates factors which influence EAS's use from a media rich-ness theory and shows sutiable EAS functions for equivocality resolution and uncertainty reduction. Results from the five EAS implementation sites show that most organizations use EAS only for tasks with low equivocality and low uncertainty. Additional functionalities such as video conferencing and database access were suggested for fu-ture EAS system to enhance their utilization for more cirtical and unstructed tasks.

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Optimal Investment Decision Timing Model Using Real Options Approach (실물 옵션을 이용한 최적 투자 의사결정 시기 선택 모형)

  • 이재한;이동주;안재현
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2001
  • Net Present Value (NPV) criterion has been the most widely used criterion to evaluate investment opportunities. However, the analysis based on the NPV criterion falls to consider the managerial flexibility of deferring decisions until major uncertainty is resolved. Recently, real options method attracted a lot of attention as a Powerful approach to address the problem. If investment decision is deferred, the value of the investment opportunity increases but opportunity cost increases at the same time. Therefore, it is important to decide the optimal timing how long the decision can be deferred. In this paper, we developed a model deciding the optimal decision timing. Using the real options approach, the model derived the optimal deferring time until a decision is made. Then, the model was applied to a Korean mobile telecommunications company who wants to invest on the wireless resale business. We believe that this model would be very useful to overcome the problem of NPV decision criterion. With this approach, we can make contingent decisions based on the observation of uncertainly resolutions.

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A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model to Derive Monthly Operating Policy of a Multi-Reservoir System (댐 군 월별 운영 정책의 도출을 위한 추계적 동적 계획 모형)

  • Lim, Dong-Gyu;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2012
  • The goal of the multi-reservoir operation planning is to provide an optimal release plan that maximize the reservoir storage and hydropower generation while minimizing the spillages. However, the reservoir operation is difficult due to the uncertainty associated with inflows. In order to consider the uncertain inflows in the reservoir operating problem, we present a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model based on the markov decision process (MDP). The objective of the model is to maximize the expected value of the system performance that is the weighted sum of all expected objective values. With the SDP model, multi-reservoir operating rule can be derived, and it also generates the steady state probabilities of reservoir storage and inflow as output. We applied the model to the Geum-river basin in Korea and could generate a multi-reservoir monthly operating plan that can consider the uncertainty of inflow.

A Study on the (Q, r) Inventory Model under the Lead Time Uncertainty and its Application to the Multi-level Distribution System (주문 인도기간이 불확실한 상황에서의 (Q, r) 재고 부형과 다단계 분배 시스템의 응용에 관한 연구)

  • 강석호;박광태
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 1986
  • In this paper, we find optimal policy for the (Q, r) inventory model under the lead time uncertainty. The (Q, r) inventory model is such that the fixed order quantity Q is placed whenever the level of on hand stock reaches the reorder point r. We first develop the single level inventory model as the basis for the analysis multi-level distribution systems. The functional problem is to determine when and how much to order in order to minimize the expected total cost per unit time, which includes the set up, inventory holding and inventory shortage cost. The model, then, is extended to the multi-level distribution system consisting of the factory, warehouses and retailers. In this case, we also find an optimal policy which minimizes the total cost of the contralized multi-level distribution system.

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Promoting and Inhibiting Factors on Information Sharing between Buyers and Sellers (유통경로 내 구매자와 판매자 간 정보공유의 촉진요인과 억제요인)

  • Kim, Sang-Deok
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2009
  • This study has investigated the effects of promoting and inhibiting factors on information sharing between buyers and sellers in Korean distribution industry. Based on intensive literature reviews, eight promoting factors(satisfaction, relational norms, trust, commitment, fairness, formalization, participation, transaction specific investment) and five inhibiting factors(opportunism, environmental uncertainty, conflict, concentration, monitoring) were included in the research model. For the purpose of empirical testing, 320 respondents of retailers in Korea were surveyed and the analysis utilizing structural equation model indicated that satisfaction, relational norms, trust, commitment, fairness, formalization, and participation had positive effects on information sharing. And concentration and monitoring had negative effects on it. However transaction specific investment, opportunism, conflict, and environmental uncertainty had no significant effects.

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