• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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The Impact of Supervisory Communication Apprehension on Subordinates' Job Performance: An Empirical Study in Pakistan

  • ASAD, Muhammad;ZAFAR, Mueen Aizaz;SAJJAD, Aymen
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.437-448
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    • 2022
  • The impact of supervisory communication apprehension (SCA) on subordinates' job performance was investigated in this study. We also examined the impact of task-related uncertainty in mediating the relationship between SCA and subordinate work performance, as well as the role of information-seeking behavior in moderating the relationship between task-related uncertainty and subordinate job performance. A sample of subordinates and their supervisors from public and private sector enterprises in Pakistan were used in the study. The concept of communication apprehension is not limited to a single organization or industry, and the conditions suggest that apprehensive supervisors are likely to exist in different organizations and industries in Pakistan, including banks, telecommunications, and development sector organizations. Company directors and leaders of human resources departments were contacted to reach out to possible respondents. SmartPLS software was used to evaluate the data using a structural equation modeling technique which is commonly used in explanatory studies (Atta et al., 2021). We found evidence to support ideas predicting the association between SCA and subordinate job performance, as well as the mediating role of task-related ambiguity in the relationship. Furthermore, the findings show that information-seeking activity has a moderating effect on the link between task-related ambiguity and subordinate job performance. This is one of the first studies to look at major mediating and moderating mechanisms in the link between SCA and subordinate job performance.

Investigation on Uncertainty in Construction Bid Documents

  • Shrestha, Rabin;Lee, JeeHee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2022
  • Construction bid documents contain various errors or discrepancies giving rise to uncertainties. The errors/discrepancies/ambiguities in the bid document, if not identified and clarified before the bid, may cause dispute and conflict between the contracting parties. Given the fact that bid document is a major resource in estimating construction costs, inaccurate information in bid document can result in over/under estimating. Thus, any questions from bidders related to the errors in the bid document should be clarified by employers before bid submission. This study aims to examine the pre-bid queries, i.e., pre-bid request for information (RFI), from state DoTs of the United States to investigate error types most frequently encountered in bid documents. For the study, around 200 pre-bids RFI were collected from state DoTs and were classified into several error types (e.g., coordination error, errors in drawings). The analysis of the data showed that errors in bill of quantities is the most frequent error in the bid documents followed by errors in drawing. The study findings addressed uncertainty types in construction bid documents that should be checked during a bid process, and, in a broader sense, it will contribute to advancing the construction management body of knowledge by clarifying and classifying bid risk factors at an early stage of construction projects.

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A Patent Valuation Method Using Game Theoretic Real Option Approach (실물옵션 게임이론을 이용한 특허가치 평가 방법)

  • Kim, Jinyong;Kim, Jaehee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.43-61
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    • 2015
  • The valuation of patents is very important, since technology competitiveness is crucial for firms to maintain global competitiveness. But, the patent valuation is difficult and challenging because of the uncertainty affecting their returns. Hence, we propose a patent valuation method by incorporating game theory into the real option model, which can not only potentially recognizes the effect of uncertainty on patent value, but also consider investment decision in a competitive market, as a game between firms. With the model, we can consider dynamic strategy involving an option of patent leveraging strategies enabling the firm to switch among compete, cooperate, or wait modes under different demand or competitive advantage condition.

A Study on the Effect of Supplier's Strategy on New Product Development Performance (신제품 공동 개발 시 공급자의 전략이 신제품 개발성과에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구)

  • Hwang, Sunil;Suh, Eung-Kyo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - In the joint development of new products, buyers and suppliers exchange information to solve various problems. Uncertainty and ambiguity are typical examples. Uncertainty refers to the lack of information to solve the problem, and equivocality refers to the case where the information is interpreted in multiple processes in the process of providing the information. These uncertainty and equivocality cause new products to be delayed in their development and adversely affect quality. However, unfortunately, there is a lack of researches on how the uncertainty and equivocality of such concepts control the results of new product joint development. But, smooth communication and effective exchange of information is not emphasized only in the general organization. The importance of the new product joint development projects to achieve the two organizations' common goals becomes even greater. The purposes of this study are to analyse the effect of supplier's strategy on the NPD performance and moderating effect of uncertainty and equivocality. Research design, data, and methodology - In order to make a contribution to the lack of academic researches in Korea, this study collects data through questionnaires based on organizational information processing theory and previous studies, and conducts empirical analysis. Results - As a result, the product modularization strategy and the strategic supply chain relationship positively influenced the new product development performance - return on investment and ease of manufacturing. And the interaction effect of uncertainty and equivocality with supplier's strategy - product modularity strategy and strategic supply chain management relationship - reduces or negates the influence of product modularization strategy on new product development performance. Conclusions - This implies that it is important to control uncertainty and equivocality in order for the supplier strategy to have a positive effect on new product development performance. It also emphasizes the necessity of sharing information appropriately for companies that do not want to share the information as possible due to their fear of loss of competitive advantage in the joint development of new products. Because this kind of negative policy might let uncertainty and equivocality be happen in new product joint development process.

The Use of Satellite Image for Uncertainty Analysis in Flood Inundation Mapping (홍수범람도 불확실성 해석을 위한 인공위성사진의 활용)

  • Jung, Younghun;Ryu, Kwanghyun;Yi, Choongsung;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.549-557
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    • 2013
  • An flood inundation map is able to convey spatial distribution of inundation to a decision maker for flood risk management. A roughness coefficient with unclear values and a discharge obtained from the stage-discharge rating equation are key sources of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping by using a hydraulic model. Also, the uncertainty analysis needs an observation for the flood inundation, and satellite images is useful to obtain spatial distribution of flood. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to quantify uncertainty arising roughness and discharge in flood inundation mapping by using a hydraulic model and a satellite image. To perform this, flood inundations were simulated by HEC-RAS and terrain analysis, and ISODATA (Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis) was used to classify waterbody from Landsat 5TM imagery. The classified waterbody was used as an observation to calculate F-statistic (likelihood measure) in GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). The results from GLUE show that flood inundation areas are 74.59 $km^2$ for lower 5 % uncertainty bound and 151.95 $km^2$ for upper 95% uncertainty bound, respectively. The quantification of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping will play a significant role in realizing the efficient flood risk management.

Accounting for Uncertainty Propagation: Streamflow Forecasting using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il;Park, Se-Hoon;Oh, Tae-Suck
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1388-1392
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    • 2008
  • Water resources management depends on dealing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Dealing with these uncertainties remains a challenge. Streamflow forecasts basically contain uncertainties arising from model structure and initial conditions. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling provide an breakthrough for delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The approach here proposes integration and coupling of global climate models (GCM), multiple regional climate models, and numerous hydrological models to improve streamflow forecasting and characterize system uncertainty through generation of ensemble forecasts.

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Shalt-Term Hydrological forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks Model

  • Kim, Sungwon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.1285-1289
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    • 2004
  • Elman Discrete Recurrent Neural Networks Model(EDRNNM) was used to be a suitable short-term hydrological forecasting tool yielding a very high degree of flood stage forecasting accuracy at Musung station of Wi-stream one of IHP representative basins in South Korea. A relative new approach method has recurrent feedback nodes and virtual small memory in the structure. EDRNNM was trained by using two algorithms, namely, LMBP and RBP The model parameters, optimal connection weights and biases, were estimated during training procedure. They were applied to evaluate model validation. Sensitivity analysis test was also performed to account for the uncertainty of input nodes information. The sensitivity analysis approach could suggest a reduction of one from five initially chosen input nodes. Because the uncertainty of input nodes information always result in uncertainty in model results, it can help to reduce the uncertainty of EDRNNM application and management in small catchment.

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An Application of Heckman Two-step Procedure to Management Accounting and Firm Effectiveness: An Empirical Study from Vietnam

  • HUYNH, Quang Linh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.347-353
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    • 2022
  • Using the Heckman two-step procedure, this study investigates the relationship between management accounting implementation and firm effectiveness. The research data for this study was acquired from 450 publicly traded companies in Vietnam; however, the final sample only includes 304 responses containing useful information. The reliability analysis was used to evaluate the acquired data to examine the qualities of constructs and the dimensions that make them up. Then, the Heckman two-step technique was performed to analyze the causal connection from the acceptance of management accounting to firm effectiveness allowing for the effect of environmental uncertainty and organizational characteristics on the likelihood of adopting management accounting. The empirical findings show that management accounting acceptance determines firm effectiveness; however, the research model on the relationship between management accounting adoption and firm effectiveness has a sample selection bias. The main conclusions of this study are that there is a difference in the effects of management accounting adoption on business effectiveness when sample selection bias is not taken into consideration. When potential sample selection bias is taken into account by integrating environmental uncertainty and organizational characteristics in the research model, the effect of adopting management accounting on company effectiveness becomes minor.

Effects of Uncertainty on Continuous Intention by Type of Subscription: The Mediating Role of Ease of Justification (구독서비스 가입형태에 따른 불확실성 지각이 지속사용의도에 미치는 영향: 정당화 용이성의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Jae Yong, Park;Yong Seok, Sohn
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.11
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to understand the effect of membership type for subscription service (individual subscription vs. group subscription) on continuous intention, and to verify the mediating effect of ease of justification and the moderated mediating effect of uncertainty. An experiment was conducted on 78 university students. As a result, consumers who use subscription services in group subscription showed higher intention to continue using the subscription service than consumers who use the subscription service in individual subscription. Also, the ease of justification mediates the effect on the intention to continue using. In addition, uncertainty was found to moderating effect of ease of justification on continuous use intention according to the type of subscription. This study understands the psychological mechanism of consumers according to the type of subscription service subscription and provides useful implications for companies that provide subscription services.