Accounting for Uncertainty Propagation: Streamflow Forecasting using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models

  • 권현한 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실) ;
  • 문영일 (서울시립대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 박세훈 (한국시설안전기술공단 수리시설실팀) ;
  • 오태석 (서울시립대학교 토목공학과)
  • Published : 2008.05.22

Abstract

Water resources management depends on dealing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Dealing with these uncertainties remains a challenge. Streamflow forecasts basically contain uncertainties arising from model structure and initial conditions. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling provide an breakthrough for delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The approach here proposes integration and coupling of global climate models (GCM), multiple regional climate models, and numerous hydrological models to improve streamflow forecasting and characterize system uncertainty through generation of ensemble forecasts.

Keywords