• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Assessment of Regional Seismic Vulnerability in South Korea based on Spatial Analysis of Seismic Hazard Information (공간 분석 기반 지진 위험도 정보를 활용한 우리나라 지진 취약 지역 평가)

  • Lee, Seonyoung;Oh, Seokhoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.573-586
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    • 2019
  • A seismic hazard map based on spatial analysis of various sources of geologic seismic information was developed and assessed for regional seismic vulnerability in South Korea. The indicators for assessment were selected in consideration of the geological characteristics affecting the seismic damage. Probabilistic seismic hazard and fault information were used to be associated with the seismic activity hazard and bedrock depth related with the seismic damage hazard was also included. Each indicator was constructed of spatial information using GIS and geostatistical techniques such as ordinary kriging, line density mapping and simple kriging with local varying means. Three spatial information constructed were integrated by assigning weights according to the research purpose, data resolution and accuracy. In the case of probabilistic seismic hazard and fault line density, since the data uncertainty was relatively high, only the trend was intended to be reflected firstly. Finally, the seismic activity hazard was calculated and then integrated with the bedrock depth distribution as seismic damage hazard indicator. As a result, a seismic hazard map was proposed based on the analysis of three spatial data and the southeast and northwest regions of South Korea were assessed as having high seismic hazard. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for constructing seismic risk management systems to minimize earthquake disasters.

Estimation of Poisoning Cases by Use of Chemicals and Chemical Products in South Korea (물질과 제품 사용에 의한 국내 중독(poisoning) 건수 추정)

  • Park, Soyoung;Lee, Yesung;Mun, Eunchan;Nam, Minwoo;Kim, Jiwon;Park, Jihoon;Choi, Won-Jun;Choi, Sangjun;Ha, Kownchul;Jun, Hyoungbae;Park, Dong-Uk
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.565-575
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    • 2020
  • Objective: South Korea still lacks systematic national poisoning data collection or a poison control center (PC). The objectives of this study are to provide estimates of poisoning incidents in South Korea and to stress the necessity of a national poisoning surveillance framework managed by a national PC. Method: The number of poisoning incidents was estimated based on the 2018 annual report of the American Association of Poison Control Centers' National Poison Data System (NPDS). Our estimation of poisoning data was classified according to age group, reason for poison exposure, and case management site. Results: Total poisoning cases estimated numbered 326,636, which is tantamount to 631 cases per 100 thousand. Poisoning cases among those younger than five years old accounted for 71.7% in the United States. Fatal poisoning cases were estimated to be 210.63 (95% CI: 199.70-222.15). Non-intentional poisoning cases (250,378 cases, 95% CI: 249,992-250,764, 76.7%) were estimated to be far higher than intentional cases (62,399 cases, 95% CI: 62,207-62,593, 19.1%). Conclusion: Our results can be used to suggest the necessity of producing national poisoning data and establishing a PC despite the uncertainty of estimation.

Portfolio Analysis on the New Power Generation Sources of the Sixth Basic Plan for Long Term Electricity Demand and Supply (포트폴리오 이론을 활용한 제6차 전력수급기본계획의 신규전원구성 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Juhan;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.583-615
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    • 2014
  • Including the rolling black out in 2011, Korea has suffered from rapid increase of electricity consumption and demand forecasting failure for last five years. In addition, because of the Fukushima disaster, high fuel prices, and introduction of new generation sources such as renewables, the uncertainty on a power supply strategy increases. Consequently, a stable power supply becomes the new agenda and a revisino of strategy for new power generation sources is needed. In the light of this, we appraises the sixth basic plan for long term electricity demand and supply considering the changes of foreign and domestic conditions. We also simulate a strategy for the new power generation sources using a portfolio analysis method. As results, a diversity of power generation sources will increase and the share of renewable power generation will be surged on the assumptions of a cost reduction of renewable power sources and an increase of fuel costs. Particularly, on the range of a risk level(standard deviation) from 0.06 and 0.09, the efficient frontier has the most various power sources. Besides, the existing power plan is not efficient so that an improvement is needed. Lastly, the development of an electricity storage system and energy management system is necessary to make a stable and efficient power supply condition.

Diachronic Network Analysis on Variable Factors for enhancing the Values of Apparel Industry in South Korea -Focused on Fashion Newspaper Articles- (한국 어패럴 산업의 가치 제고를 위한 변수 요인의 통시적 연결구조 분석 -패션 신문 기사를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jang-Hyeon;Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.551-564
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    • 2020
  • The fashion industry in Korea has grown into a core sector that contributes to the development of national industries, but it has shown negative growth due to the advent of a low-growth era. This study aims to explore core texts related to variable factors affecting the apparel industry in Korea (and the environmental change factors of apparel companies) by using network analysis from a diachronic point of view. In addition, we discuss the implications of enhancing the value of fashion industries in Korea based on articles in fashion newspapers over five years. The conclusion of this study is as follows. First, as a suggestion for political and economic aspects, the government should minimize the damage caused by political influence by presenting new policies, or by communicating about the practical aspects of geopolitical issues and changes linked to the fashion industry. Second, as a suggestion of socio-cultural aspects, it is necessary to reduce uncertainty about the future by establishing a strategic system through cooperation with institutions that can predict future directions. Third, as a suggestion for management changes in the apparel industry, apparel companies in Korea should recognize the importance of consciousness of promoting development for a better society from coexistence, rather than corporate profit.

Congruence in Leader and Follower Perceptions of Leader-Member Exchange: Relationships with Organizational Commitment and Perceptions of Organizational Politics (리더-구성원 교환관계에 대한 리더와 구성원 지각의 정합성: 조직정치지각과 정서적 조직몰입의 관계를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jae-Chun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.240-252
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    • 2016
  • The purposes of this paper examines the extant to which congruence in leader and follower rating of LMX quality is related to organizational commitment, and perceptions of organizational politics(POPs). A conceptual model is introduced that identifies four combinations of leader and follower LMX ratings of Cogliser et al.(2009): balanced/low LMX(low leader and follower LMX), balanced/high LMX(high leader and follower LMX), follower overestimation(low leader LMX/high follower LMX), follower underestimation(high leader LMX/low follower LMX). The summary of results based on a sample of 236 matched pairs of leaders and followers in KOREA is as follows: First, balanced/high LMX and follower overestimation were associated with relatively high levels of affective organizational commitment, and perceptions of organizational politics. However, follower underestimation and balanced/low LMX was related to low levels of follower outcomes. In particular, follower underestimation and balanced/low LMX were significantly different from balanced/high LMX and follower overestimation. Second, perceptions of organizational politics was negatively related to affective organizational commitment in the four LMX relationship types. Especially, the negative relationship between POPs and organizational commitment was stronger for people who are low as compared with high in LMX quality. Theoretical and practical implications of our findings as well as directions for future research are provided.

Determinants of the Ownership Structure of Franchise Systems: Theory and Evidence (프랜차이즈 시스템의 소유구조 결정요인: 이론과 증거)

  • Lim, Young-Kyun;Byun, Sook-Eun;Oh, Seung-Su
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.33-75
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    • 2011
  • The ownership structure of a franchise system is determined by the franchisor's strategic choice. A close look at the extant theories and perspectives in economics and management such as resource scarcity theory, agency theory, transaction cost analysis, and mixed ownership theory reveals that firms choose their ownership structure for the sake of economic efficiency, profit potentials, the chance of survival, and other strategic concerns. The present study, on the basis of strategic choice perspective, reviews the divergent theories of a franchise system's ownership structure and its determinants, thus providing a theoretical framework for comparing the contradictory arguments along the several critical dimensions. We also developed and tested the conflicting hypotheses regarding key determinants of ownership structure including firm's age, size, transaction-specific investments, uncertainty, and risk-sharing propensity. Using a FDD (Franchise Disclosure Document) data set of 543 Korean franchisors, we found that the years in business, the total number of employees, days of training, the inverse of the years of franchising, and the requirement of royalty payment have positive relationships with the proportion of company-owned outlets to total number of outlets. On the other hand, the proportion of company-owned outlets was found to have negative relationships with the total number of outlets and the extent of geographic dispersion of outlets, but to have no significant relationships with the initial investment required and the inverse of contract length. Based on the findings, we provide several theoretical and managerial implications for studying ownership structure of franchise systems.

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Determinants of Department Store Sales Commissions Under Consignment Contracts: An Integrated Perspective (백화점 특약매입 거래에서 판매수수료의 결정요인 : 거래비용, 힘-의존이론과 자원기반이론의 통합적 관점)

  • Yi, Ho-Taek;Yeom, Min-Sun;Seo, Hun-Joo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - This study aims to seek determinants of department store sales commission rates under consignment contracts based on transaction cost theory, the power-dependence view, and the resource-based view. A consignment contract is a unique contract where the retailer, over a given period, takes possession of goods owned by a supplier, promotes the sales of these goods, and receives a profit share from their sales. Under this contract, the supplier owns the goods until they are sold. In department stores in South Korea, over 70% of overall sales comes through consignment contracts. In other words, this is the most popular contract agreement between large retailers and vendors in South Korea. Consignment contracts yield high profits to department stores with minimal sales uncertainty, stock cost, and marketing investment. Many suppliers believe the consignment contract commission rates are too high. However, department stores disagree. They state that the commissions are not high as they generate new value for the suppliers by accumulating up-to-date merchandise and supporting various marketing programs on their behalf. Recently, consignment contracts have been critically examined and scrutinized by politicians, mass media, and the public of Korea. This study further intends to derive implications reflecting both buyer and seller perspectives as well as offer insights to policy makers in making appropriate decisions. Research design, data, and methodology - To verify the proposed research model and test hypotheses, the authors selected 164 suppliers, which currently have relationships with department stores. This study carefully investigated the reliability, content validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the proposed model. The data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS structural equation modeling program Results - For the transaction cost theory and the power-dependence view, the results indicated that product diversity and demand volatility had a positive impact on the sales dependence on a department store. Dependence in turn had a positive effect on the sales commission under the consignment contract. Based on the resource-based view, the department store's marketing capability, the supplier's perception toward merchandising, and supporting activities could enhance the department store's channel leadership in the buyer-seller relationship. Subsequently, the channel leadership had a positive effect on the sales commission. However, product complexity had no relationship with department store dependence. Conclusions - This is the first empirical research that investigates the determinants of sales commissions under consignment contracts in the domestic retail industry. This study reveals several theoretical and practical implications for both marketing scholars and marketers. In terms of theoretical implication, this study integrated and enlarged certain theoretical background, such as transaction cost theory, the power-dependence view, and the resource-based view, to explain the determinants of sales commissions under consignment contracts that include sales revenue. From a business management viewpoint, this research offers useful insights for policy makers by applying two different perspectives, both the manufacturer and the retailer, in terms of the sales commission issue under a consignment contract.

Determination of the number of storm events monitoring considering urban stormwater runoff characteristics (도시지역의 강우유출수 특성 분석을 통한 적정모니터링 횟수 도출)

  • Choi, Jiyeon;Na, Eunhye;Kim, Hongtae;Kim, Jinsun;Kim, Yongseck;Lee, Jaekwan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.515-522
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    • 2017
  • This study investigated the runoff characteristics containing NPS pollutants in urban areas and estimated the optimal number of storm events to be monitored. 13 residential areas, 8 commercial areas, 9 transportation areas and 11 industrial areas were selected to be monitored located in urban areas. Monitoring was performed from 2008 to 2016 with a total of 632 rainfall events. As a result, it was found that commercial area needs priority NPS management compared to other landuses because the commercial area has high runoff coefficient and NPS pollutant EMC compared with other landuses. The annual monitoring frequency for each landuse was estimated to be 11 to 14 times for industrial area, 12 to 14 times for transportation area, 11 to 13 times for commercial area and 22 to 25 times for residential area. Even with the use of accumulated monitoring data for several years, there is still high probability of uncertainty due to high error in some pollutant items, and it is necessary to establish monitoring know-how and data accumulation to reduce errors by continuous monitoring.

The Determinants of User Resistance to Adopting e-Books : Based on Innovation Characteristics and User Attitude (전자책 수용에 대한 사용자 저항 결정요인 : 혁신특성과 사용자태도를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Aeri;Choi, Jaewon;Kim, Kyung Kyu
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.95-115
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    • 2012
  • The e-Book market has rapidly grown as an innovative product which is mixed its traditional and technological characteristics. However, decreasing user resistance to the e-Book is very important to continually keeping up its market growth. Previous studies for user resistance have been studied as a negative barrier for various innovative products with importance of user resistance. Nevertheless, the factors for user' resistance to the e-Book field have not been found out considering both perceived value and switching cost. Especially, both innovative technology and user specifics should be considered when explaining user resistance to adopting e-Books. Thus, the purpose of this study is to understand the process for user resistance to the e-book and find out its antecedents with perceived value and switching cost at the same time. As a result, it appeared that triability, uncertainty and complexity affected perceived value and switching cost. The user-based antecedents like social norm and perceived value increased the effect of self-efficacy. Also, self-efficacy and perceived value decreased user resistance whereas switching cost increase user resistance to the e-Book perspective.

Estimation of an Occupational Exposure Limit for Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotubes Manufactured in Korea (국내 일부 다중벽탄소나노튜브의 직업노출기준 추정)

  • Kim, Jong Bum;Kim, Kyung Hwan;Choi, Byung-Gil;Song, Kyung Seuk;Bae, Gwi-Nam
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2016
  • With the development of nanotechnology, nanomaterials are used in various fields. Therefore, the interest regarding the safety of nanomaterial use is increasing and much effort is diverted toward establishment of exposure assessment and management methods. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) are effectively used to protect the health of workers in various industrial workplaces. This study aimed to propose an OEL for domestic multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) based on animal inhalation toxicity test. Basic procedure for development of OELs was examined. For OEL estimation, epidemiological study and quantitative risk assessment are generally performed based on toxicity data. In addition, inhalation toxicity data-based no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) and benchmark dose (BMD) are estimated to obtain the OEL. Three different estimation processes (NEDO in Japan, NIOSH in USA, and Baytubes in Germany) of OELs for carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were intensively reviewed. From the rat inhalation toxicity test for MWCNTs manufactured in Korea, a NOAEL of $0.98mg/m^3$ was derived. Using the simple equation for estimation of OEL suggested by NEDO, the OEL of $142{\mu}g/m^3$ was estimated for the MWCNT manufacturing workplace. Here, we used test rat and Korean human data and adopted 36 as an uncertainty factor. The OEL for MWCNT estimated in this work is higher than those ($2-80{\mu}g/m^3$) suggested by previous investigators. It may be greatly caused by different physicochemical properties of MWCNT and their dispersion method and test rat data. For setting of regulatory OELs in CNT workplaces, further epidemiological studies in addition to animal studies are needed. More advanced technical methods such as CNT dispersion in air and liquid should be also developed.