• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Data processing system and spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment of GloSea5 model (GloSea5 모델의 자료처리 시스템 구축 및 시·공간적 재현성평가)

  • Moon, Soojin;Han, Soohee;Choi, Kwangsoon;Song, Junghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.9
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    • pp.761-771
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    • 2016
  • The GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5) is provided and operated by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). GloSea5 provides Forecast (FCST) and Hindcast (HCST) data and its horizontal resolution is about 60km ($0.83^{\circ}{\times}0.56^{\circ}$) in the mid-latitudes. In order to use this data in watershed-scale water management, GloSea5 needs spatial-temporal downscaling. As such, statistical downscaling was used to correct for systematic biases of variables and to improve data reliability. HCST data is provided in ensemble format, and the highest statistical correlation ($R^2=0.60$, RMSE = 88.92, NSE = 0.57) of ensemble precipitation was reported for the Yongdam Dam watershed on the #6 grid. Additionally, the original GloSea5 (600.1 mm) showed the greatest difference (-26.5%) compared to observations (816.1 mm) during the summer flood season. However, downscaled GloSea5 was shown to have only a -3.1% error rate. Most of the underestimated results corresponded to precipitation levels during the flood season and the downscaled GloSea5 showed important results of restoration in precipitation levels. Per the analysis results of spatial autocorrelation using seasonal Moran's I, the spatial distribution was shown to be statistically significant. These results can improve the uncertainty of original GloSea5 and substantiate its spatial-temporal accuracy and validity. The spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment will play a very important role as basic data for watershed-scale water management.

The effects of Cognitive Flexibility, Self Concept Clarity and Goal Orientation On Adaptive Performance -Focused on mediation effect of resilience- (인지적유연성, 목표지향성, 자기개념명확성이 조직적응에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 회복탄력성을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Young-Bohk;Lee, Na-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-245
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the factors leading resilience and to investigate the impact of the adaptive performance. The results are as follows: First, Cognitive Flexibility, Self Concept Clarity and Learning Goal Orientation were proved as antecedents predicted to resilience. Second, Cognitive Flexibility had positive effects on all sub variables on adaptive performance and Prove Goal Orientation had positive effects on some sub variables on adaptive performance such as problem solving, cope with uncertainty, cross cultural adaptability. Self Concept Clarity had positive effects on some sub variables on adaptive performance such as problem solving, handle crisis, cross cultural adaptability. Third, Resilience mediated the relationship between Cognitive Flexibility and Adaptive Performance(problem solving, handle crisis, cross cultural adaptability). The hypotheses of the mediation effect of resilience between Goal Orientation, Self Concept Clarity and Adaptive Performance were rejected. Lastly, this study emphasized and verified the importance of resilience in process of adaptive performance. Future studies should be looked for broad variety of resilience factors.

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Entrepreneurial Characteristics Affecting on Angel Investors's Decision making (엔젤투자자의 투자의사결정에 영향을 미치는 기업가특성에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Young Sook;Hwangbo, Yun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.47-61
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    • 2014
  • Many angel investors hesitate to invest in early-stage company. Most early-stage company has no sales and only R&D step project or in early approach of market. So it's impossible to evaluate early-stage company quantitatively. Therefore many angel investors depend on CEO's tendency to evaluate company and make decision for investment. The purpose of this study is discover the entrepreneurial characteristics of CEO and the importance level which affect on the angel investors decision making factors for investment. To identify the factors of entrepreneurial characteristics, survey was conducted by Delphi Technique which is involved by 20 experts who is angel investment club members, venture capitalists, CEOs and officers. Three rounds of survey results derived 10 elements of entrepreneurial characteristics for investment decision making factors including reliability, risk sensitivity, passion, perseverance, integrity, leadership, startup experience, organizational management skills, innovation and social networking. In addition, this study derived the importance level of elements of entrepreneurial characteristics based on the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) theory and maintained the logical consistency by pair-wise comparison for each element. As a result of analyzing the importance of entrepreneurial characteristics, the sequence is reliability (18.1%), integrity (15.9%), leadership (11.7%), organizational management skills (10.0%), social networking (9.5%), passion(9.1%), perseverance(8.4%), innovation(8.1%), startup experience(5.3%) and risk sensitivity(3.9%) respectively. The significance of this study is somewhat decrease limit of the uncertainty arising from angel investors and angel investors can help a decision making, by discover factors of entrepreneurial characteristics that can be called the biggest influencing factors among Investor's investment decision-making In early stage companies and compare importance.

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The effect of job stress of system maintenance staff on emotion exhaustion: Focusing on the moderating effect of professional identity (정보시스템 운영인력의 직무 스트레스가 정서적 소진에 미치는 영향: 전문직 정체성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Lim, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 2018
  • The fourth industrial revolution is expected to bring about great changes in information technology sector and create a variety of jobs. However, the psychological anxiety of IT staff is increasing due to stress and uncertainty created by the new technologies. Accordingly, researchers examined how professional identity moderate the effect of job stress of system maintenance staff on emotion exhaustion. For empirical studies, data was collected from 160 employees responsible for managing and supporting IS, and the hypothesis was verified using SPSS 21. The analysis results showed that role conflicts, role ambiguity, and qualitative work overload, which are components of job stress, have affected the emotion exhaustion. Professional identity had a moderating effect the relationship between qualitative work overload and emotion exhaustion. On the other hand, professional identity did not moderate the relationship between role conflict and emotion exhaustion, role ambiguity and emotion exhaustion. As professional identity lessen the psychological burden and emotion exhaustion of introducing new technologies, organizations need to provide support to enhance professional identity for system maintenance staff.

The Distribution of Indoor Air Pollutants by the Categories of Public-Use Facilities and Their Rate of Guideline Violation (다중이용시설별 실내공기 오염물질 농도분포 및 기준치 이상 값의 구성비 조사)

  • Joen, Jeong-In;Lee, Hye-Won;Choi, Hyun-Jin;Jeon, Hyung-Jin;Lee, Cheolmin
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.398-409
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    • 2021
  • Background: The types and effects of hazardous pollutants in indoor air may vary depending on the characteristics of the sources and pollutants caused by physical and chemical properties of buildings, the influence of outdoor air, and the exposure and use characteristics of residents. Objectives: This study was conducted to provide basic data on the establish of indoor air quality management for different classes of public-use facilities by presenting the characteristics of concentration distribution of hazardous pollutants by different public-use facilities and the status of the excess proportion of exceeding standards. Methods: This study analyzed self-measurement data from public-use facilities taken from 2017 to 2019 A total of 133,525 facilities were surveyed. A total of 10 types of pollutants that have maintenance and recommended standards stipulated in the Indoor Air Quality Control Act from the Ministry of Environment were investigated. The excess proportion and the substances exceeding the criteria for each type of public-use facilities for these pollutants were investigated. Results: As a result of the analysis of the proportion of exceeding the standard for each type of public-use facility, the facilities with the highest excess proportion of the standards for each hazardous pollutant were: PM10 in railway stations (8.93%), PM2.5 in daycare centers (7.36%), CO2 in bus terminals (2.37%), HCHO in postpartum care centers (4.11%), total airborne bacteria in daycare centers (0.69%), CO in museums (0.1%), NO2 in postpartum care centers (1.15%), Rn in museums (0.78%), total volatile organic compounds in postpartum care centers (7.20%) and mold in daycare centers (1.44%). Conclusions: Although uncertainty may arise because this study is a result of self-measurement, it is considered that this study has significance for providing basic data on the establishment in the future of indoor air quality management measures customized for each type of public-use facility.

Quantifying Climate Change Regulating Service of Forest Ecosystem - Focus on Quantifying Carbon Storage and Sequestration - (산림생태계 기후변화 조절서비스 계량화 방법 - 탄소 저장 및 흡수기능 계량화 방법을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Hyun-Ah;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Joon Sun;Kwak, Hanbin;Kim, Moonil;Kim, Jaeuk;Kim, Jung Teak
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 2014
  • Forest ecosystem provides variety goods and services for human being. Unlike goods, forest ecosystem services could not be easily priced by market mechanism. This uncertainty has been caused to conflict in decision-making related forest ecosystem services. Quantification of forest ecosystem services is required to understand the importance of ecosystem services and their contribution to decision-making. As a growing concern of climate change, it is necessary to quantify and calculate carbon storage and sequestration in forest. In this study, for quantifying carbon storage and sequestration, we compared scale, output, input data availability of the models and analyzed the applicability of the models to Korea. The results of this study show that most models are applicable for quantifying carbon storage and sequestration. However, relatively few models are applicable for other regulating services (air quality regulation, flood mitigation, erosion control, water quality, etc.) of forest. This study would be helpful for quantifying regulating services of forest ecosystem research.

Effects of Restaurants' e-Wom Characteristics on Attitude and Visit Intention: Focused on Visit Intention Over Time (레스토랑의 e-Wom 특성이 시간 경과에 따른 방문의도를 중심으로 한 태도 및 방문의도에 미치는 영향)

  • KIM, Sung-Hwan;JEON, Young-Mi;LEE, Ji-Ah
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: With the development of the Internet, consumers can quickly access the electronic word-of-mouth. Consumers seek to reduce uncertainty by referring to the opinions of other consumers about products and services when making purchase decisions. In the food service industry, evaluating a restaurant before an actual visitation is difficult. Therefore, electronic word-of-mouth is important to interact with the customer in restaurants. as it can be used as an exchange of information in which consumers participate and interact with other customers. This study was conducted to verify how online word-of-mouth characteristics (Consensus, Vividness, Neutrality) on attitudes and visit intention from the perspective of social exchange theory. And it was performed to verify the structural relationship between short-term visit intention, mid-term visit and long-term visit intention. Research design, data, and methodology: A survey was conducted on customers who have visited restaurants. Of a total of 312 responses, 306 responses were used, excluding insincere responses and missing values for factors analysis. SPSS 25.0 and AMOS 25.0 were used for statistical analysis, and hypothesis testing was conducted after verifying the validity and reliability of the questionnaire items. Result: The result of the analysis showed that, consensus and neutrality have a positive effect on attitude but not much on vividness. In addition, consensus, vividness, and neutrality have no effect on the short-term visit intention. Finally, the short-term visit intention has a positive effect on mid-term visit intention, and mid-term visit intention has a positive effect on long-term visit intention. Conclusions: Based on the results, this study suggested that it is necessary to have practical implications for marketing and monitoring restaurant reviews in consideration of the characteristics of electronic word-of-mouth. When managing electronic-word-of-mouth, it is necessary to manage the consensus and neutrality is essential to provide sufficient information about the restaurant. The focus should not only be on vividness, such as photos and videos. In addition, restaurants should also provide a good experience for first-time visitors as the short-term visit intention positively affects mid-term and long-term visit intention.

Analysis of the Relationship between Macpa Stress Index and Korean Job Stress Level - Focusing on Subway Construction Workers (맥파 스트레스와 한국인 직무스트레스의 상관관계 분석 - 도시철도 건설종사자를 대상으로)

  • Chae, Joung Sik;Lee, Yu Jeong;Chang, Seong Rok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.64-69
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    • 2022
  • The study measured a subway construction worker's Macpa stress by Heart Rate Variability measuring instrument and conducted a survey of Korean job stress from subway construction workers. Also, the study analyzed the relationship between Macpa stress index and Korean job stress result and suggested managing stress method for each item. According to National Statistical Office data, the first line subway in Seoul was started to open in 1974. The extended total length is 996 kilometers until 2019. Many aged workers are currently working at subway construction sites due to the avoidance of young workers since the past until now. It means that the elderly has a substantial portion among subway construction workers. The productivity has been adversely affected by health problems due to the aging of workers, job stress due to heavy work, and personal health problems. So, the regulation and policies on job stress health management are being strengthened. The data were measured Macpa stress by machine measuring heart rate variability and conducted Korean job stress survey(shortened) from Sa-sang to Ha-dan line Busan subway construction workers for analyzing the relationship. Independent variable were age, job duration, job position, employment type, working type in this study. Macpa's dependent variable was stress index and Korean job stress survey(shortened)'s dependent variables were job requirements, job autonomy, relationship conflict, job instability, organizational structure, inappropriate compensation, working place culture, and total score. SPSS 12.0 K Statistics Program was used for statistical analysis. Kruskal-wallis test, a nonparametric statistical analysis, was used because the data are difficult to be assumed as normal distribution. As a result, the paper indicated the significant correlation between Macpa stress index and Korean job stress(short version). The elderly workers presented higher Macpa index and higher job stress due to aging and heavy-duty work. The majority workers were daily workers who had unstable working condition and uncertainty about the future. The study suggested a manual that could reduce job stress for subway construction workers and future study deriving management tool through analyzing job stress factor is necessary.

Rock Mechanics Site Characterization for HLW Disposal Facilities (고준위방사성폐기물 처분시설 부지에 대한 암반역학 부지특성화)

  • Um, Jeong-Gi;Hyun, Seung Gyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2022
  • The mechanical and thermal properties of the rock masses can affect the performance associated with both the isolating and retarding capacities of radioactive materials within the deep geological disposal system for High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW). In this study, the essential parameters for the site descriptive model (SDM) related to the rock mechanics and thermal properties of the HLW disposal facilities site were reviewed, and the technical background was explored through the cases of the preceding site descriptive models developed by SKB (Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company), Sweden and Posiva, Finland. SKB and Posiva studied parameters essential for the investigation and evaluation of mechanical and thermal properties, and derived a rock mechanics site descriptive model for safety evaluation and construction of the HLW disposal facilities. The rock mechanics SDM includes the results obtained from investigation and evaluation of the strength and deformability of intact rocks, fractures, and fractured rock masses, as well as the geometry of large-scaled deformation zones, the small-scaled fracture network system, thermal properties of rocks, and the in situ stress distribution of the disposal site. In addition, the site descriptive model should provide the sensitivity analysis results for the input parameters, and present the results obtained from evaluation of uncertainty.

Development of an Algorithm for Automatic Quantity Take-off of Slab Rebar (슬래브 철근 물량 산출 자동화 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Suhwan;Kim, Sunkuk;Suh, Sangwook;Kim, Sangchul
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2023
  • The objective of this study is to propose an automated algorithm for precise cutting length of slab rebar complying with regulations such as anchorage length, standard hooks, and lapping length. This algorithm aims to improve the traditional manual quantity take-off process typically outsourced by external contractors. By providing accurate rebar quantity data at BBS(Bar Bending Schedule) level from the bidding phase, uncertainty in quantity take-off can be eliminated and reliance on out-sourcing reduced. In addition, the algorithm allows for early determination of precise quantities, enabling construction firms to preapre competitive and optimized bids, leading to increased profit margins during contract negotiations. The proposed algorithm not only streamlines redundant tasks across various processes, including estimating, budgeting, and BBS generation but also offers flexibility in handling post-contract structural drawing changes. In particular, the proposed algorithm, when combined with BIM, can solve the technical problems of using BIM in the early phases of construction, and the algorithm's formulas and shape codes that built as REVIT-based family files, can help saving time and manpower.