• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Development of Korean Food-Chemical Ranking and Scoring System (Food-CRS-Korea) and Its Application to Prioritizing Food Toxic Chemicals Associated with Environmental Pollutants (환경유래 식품오염물질의 우선순위 선정 기법 (Food-CRS-Korea)의 개발과 적용)

  • Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jang, Ji-Young;Kim, Soo-Hwaun;Kim, Yoon-Kwan;Lee, Hyo-Min;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2010
  • The aims of this study were to develop the suitable "system software" in chemical ranking and scoring (CRS) for the food hazardous chemicals associated with environmental emission and to suggest the priority lists of food contamination by environmental-origined pollutants. Study materials were selected with reference to the priority pollutants list for environment and food management from domestic and foreign research and the number of study materials is 103 pollutants (18 heavy metals, 10 PBTs, 10 EDs, and 65 organic compounds). The Food-CRS-Korea system consisted of the environmental fate model via multimedia, transfer environment to food model, and health risk assessment by contaminated food intake. We have established that health risks of excess cancer risks, hazard quotients (HQs) by chronic toxicity and HQs by reproductive toxicity convert to score, respectively. The creditable scoring system was designed to consider uncertainty of quantitative risk assessment based on VOI (Value-Of-Information). The predictability of the Food-CRS-Korea model was evaluated by comparing the presumable values and the measured ones of the environmental media and foodstuffs. The priority lists based on emissions with background-level-correction are 15 pollutants such as arsenic, cadmium, and etc. The priority lists based on environmental monitoring date are 17 pollutants including DEHP, TCDD, and so on. Consequently, we suggested the priority lists of 13 pollutants by considering the several emission and exposure scenarios. According to the Food-CRS-Korea system, arsenics, cadmium, chromes, DEHP, leads, and nickels have high health risk rates and reliable grades.

Preparation and Management of the Input Data for the Safety Assessment of Low- and Intermediate-level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Korea (중·저준위 방사성폐기물 처분시설 안전성평가를 위한 입력데이터 설정 및 관리에 대한 고찰)

  • Park, Jin Beak;Kim, Hyun-Joo;Lee, Dong-Hee
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.345-361
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    • 2014
  • The systematic quality assurance activities on documents of the safety assessment are required for the safety case of the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal facility. In this paper, quality assurance system focused on the input data including the site characterization, groundwater flow, system design and monitoring are prepared and discussed. Rule for the input data selection is suggested and applied for the safety assessment which is based on the in-situ/experiment observations, final facility design and waste pileup plan, engineered barrier, field monitoring, recent biosphere, and radionuclide inventory. The reduction of data uncertainty will be expected to contribute to the safety of disposal facility further.

Improved Solutions for Honorable Failure Policy on National R&D Projects (국가연구개발사업 성실실패제도 개선방안)

  • Lee, Jung Soo;Kil, Boo Jong;Jeon, Heesung
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.346-366
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    • 2013
  • The importance of challenging and creative research recently has been increased, risk-taking on the R&D is being needed. The settlement of policy is urgently required in order to protect the result of high-risk research. 'Honorable Failure' is statutory by 'Regulation on the National R&D Program management' to resolve this issue, however its standards and detailed guides are not provided enough or the ministerial funding agencies apply different guidelines, making the researchers on the field confused by far. Therefore this paper reviews the current state of 'Honorable Failure Policy'(saving the 'failed' research despite of its adequate process or performance) and compares with the cases of major countries, then points out following issues; the uncertainty of the criterion, the difference of the main agent performing evaluation, admission of the failure, the utilization of the result of 'failed' research, the vagueness of the range of sanctions and restriction, and the lack of method of inspection and prevention for repetitive failure of the research projects. Finally, this paper proposes the solutions for these issues to improve.

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Development of Estimation Methods of Pollutant Emissions from Railroad Diesel Rolling Stocks (철도디젤차량에서 배출되는 오염물질의 배출량 산정방법 개발)

  • 박덕신;김동술
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.539-553
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    • 2004
  • Up to the present time, many methods to estimate emissions from a particular diesel engines have wholly depended on the quantity of diesel fuel consumed. Then, the recommended emission factors were normalized by fuel consumption, and further total activity was estimated by the total fuel consumed. One of main purposes in the study is newly to develop emission factors for the railroad diesel rolling stock (RDRS) and to estimate a total amount of major gaseous pollutants from the RDRS in Korea. Prior to develop a Korean mode emission factor. the emission factor from the USEPA was simply applied for comparative studies. When applying the USEPA emission factors, total exhaust emissions from the RDRS in Korea were estimated by 28,117tons of NOx, 2,832.3tons of CO, and 1,237.5tons of HC, etc in 2001. In this study, a emission factor for the RDRS, so called the KoRail mode (the Korean Railroad mode) has been developed on the basis of analyzing the driving pattern of the Gyeongbu-Line especially for the line-haul mode. Explicitly to make the site specific emission factors, many uncertainty problems concerning weighting factors for each power mode, limited emission test, incomplete data for RDRS, and other important input parameters were extensively examined. Total exhaust emissions by KoRail mode in Korea were estimated by 10,960tons of NOx, and 4,622tons of CO, and so on in the year of 2001. The emissions estimated by the USEPA mode were 2.6 times higher for NOx, and 1.6 times lower for CO than those by the KoRail mode. As a conclusion, based on the emission calculated from both the USEPA mode and the KoRail mode, the RDRS is considered as one of the significant mobile sources for major gaseous pollutants and thus management plans an(1 control strategies for the RDRS must be established to improve air quality near future in Korea.

A Computer Algorithm for the evaluation of elements in Face Stimulus Assessment (얼굴자극검사의 평가를 위한 컴퓨터 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Jong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.1961-1968
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    • 2010
  • The Face Stimulus Assessment is an efficient projective drawing test developed by Betts. This paper categorizes scales which Betts suggested into the following five groups: accuracy of painting, color fit, perception of shape, precision of drawing, and space usage. In this paper, a computer algorithm which objectively evaluates these five scales is suggested. The proposed algorithm defines the areas of the lip, eyes, hair, etc. which take on significant roles in the evaluation of the FSA and based on these factors, it calculates the grade of each scale through the main color and color ratio. The consistency of evaluations between the computer algorithm and the art therapist is measured by the Quadratic Weighted Kappa. By providing objectivity and consistency, the computer algorithm is expected to solve the problem of uncertainty found in art therapists' evaluations of projective drawing tests caused by their subjective judgment, experience, and intuition.

The Empirical Study of Relationship between Product Market Competition Structure and Overvaluation

  • CHA, Sang-Kwon;PARK, Mi-Hee
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This paper investigated the relationship between market competition and firm valuation error. Furthermore, Additional analyses were made according to the quality of financial reports and the listed market. Through the process we confirm to the impact of competition on the capital market. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of competition on valuation errors. The preceding studies did not provide a consistent results of the effects of competing functions on the capital market. One view is that the competition could mitigate the information asymmetry, and the other is that monopolistic lessens the manager's involvement in financial reporting. This study is intended to expand the prior study by analyzing the impact of competition on the capital market and on the valuation of investors. Research design, data, and methodology: The analysis was conducted on 12,031 samples over 11 years from 2008 to 2018 using data from market in Korea. Here the valuation error was measured by the research methodology of Rhodes-Kropf, Robinson and Viswanathan (2005), and competition measured by Herfindahl-Hirschman Index multiplied by (-1), and Concentration Ratio by (-1). Results: We confirm that the positive relationship between competition and the valuation error. In addition, we also found that the positive relation between competition and valuation error was in cases of low discretionary accruals and the KOSDAQ market. This means that the net function of competition does not mitigate valuation errors. Conclusions. This study has the following contributions when compared to prior research. First, the relevance between the level of competition and the valuation of the entity was confirmed. The study by Haw, Hu and Lee (2015) suggested that monopolistic industry of analysts' forecast is more accurate due to lower the variability in earnings. This study magnified it to confirm that monopolistic lessen information uncertainty in valuation. Second, the study on valuation errors was expanded. While the study on the effect of valuation errors on the capital market is generally relatively active, it is different that competition degree has analyzed the effect on valuation errors amid the lack of research on the effect on valuation errors.

Ambidextrous Innovation and Performance : An Empirical Test of the Ambidexterity Hypothesis in TV Drama Projects (양면적 혁신과 성과 : TV 드라마를 대상으로 한 양면성 가설의 실증)

  • Choo, Seungyoup;Limb, Seong-Joon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.713-725
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    • 2016
  • Ambidextrous innovation is defined as the innovation capacity to pursue simultaneously both exploration and exploitation. Based on the organization learning and innovation management literature, the ambidexterity hypothesis predicts that ambidextrous innovation would enhance firm performance. This study attempts to verify the ambidexterity hypothesis in the context of TV drama production industry. TV drama producers' ambidextrous innovation is conceptualized as the simultaneous pursuit of exploratory and exploitative approaches in selecting genres of dramas. Data collected from 57 drama producers in 714 Korean TV drama projects between 1994 and 2009 support the ambidextrous hypothesis. The interaction between exploratory and exploitative approaches in genre selection is indeed positively related to the drama performance in terms of the viewing rate. Such results suggest that managers ought to manage high levels of both exploratory and exploitative innovation simultaneously in order to cope with increasing uncertainty, especially in highly uncertain cultural industry.

Time-Series Prediction of Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Using an Application of Recurrent Neural Networks (Recurrent Neural Networks를 활용한 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 예측)

  • Han, Min-Soo;Yu, Song-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.50-53
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    • 2017
  • Not only growth of importance to understanding economic trends, but also the prediction to overcome the uncertainty is coming up for long-term maritime recession. This paper discussed about the prediction of BDI with artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN is one of emerging applications that can be the finest solution to the knotty problems that may not easy to achieve by humankind. Proposed a prediction by implementing neural networks that have recurrent architecture which are a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). And for the reason of comparison, trained Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) from 2009.04.01 to 2017.07.31. Also made a comparison with conventional statistics, prediction tools; ARIMA. As a result, recurrent net, especially RNN outperformed and also could discover the applicability of LSTM to specific time-series (BDI).

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E-Business and Simulation

  • Park, Sung-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.9-10
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    • 2001
  • Simulation has been evolved with the advance of computer and technique of modeling application systems. Early simulations were numerical analysis of engineering models known as continuous simulation, analysis of random events using various random number generators thus named as Monte Carlo simulation, iud analysis o(\\\\`queues which are prevalent in many real world systems including manufacturing, transportation, telecommunication. Discrete-event simulation has been used far modeling and analyzing the systems with waiting lines and inefficient delays. These simulations, either discrete-event, continuous, or hybrid, have played a key role in industrial age by helping to design and implement the efficient real world systems. In the information age which has been brought up by the advent of Internet, e-business has emerged. E-business, any business using Internet, can be characterized by the network of extended enterprises---extended supply and demand chains. The extension of value chains spans far reaching scope in business functions and space globally. It also extends to the individual customer, customer preferences and behaviors, to find the best service and product fit for each individual---mass customization. Simulation should also play a key role in analyzing and evaluating the various phenomena of e-business where the phenomena can be characterized by dynamics, uncertainty, and complexity. In this tutorial, applications of simulation to e-business phenomena will be explained and illustrated. Examples are the dynamics of new economy, analysis of e-business processes, virtual manufacturing system, digital divide phenomena, etc. Partly influenced by e-business, a new trend of simulation has emerged called agent-based simulation, Agent-based simulation is a technique of simulation using software agent that have autonomy and proactivity which are useful in analyzing and integrating numerous individual customer's behavior. One particular form of agent-based simulation is swarm. This tutorial concludes with the illustration of swarm or swarm Intelligence applied to various e-business applications, and future directions and implications of this new trend of simulation.

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Network human-robot interface at service level

  • Nguyen, To Dong;Oh, Sang-Rok;You, Bum-Jae
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1938-1943
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    • 2005
  • Network human-robot interface is an important research topic. In home application, users access the robotic system directly via voice, gestures or through the network. Users explore a system by using the services provided by this system and to some extend users are enable to participate in a service as partners. A service may be provided by a robot, a group of robots or robots and other network connected systems (distributed sensors, information systems, etc). All these services are done in the network environment, where uncertainty such as the unstable network connection, the availability of the partners in a service, exists. Moreover, these services are controlled by several users, accessing at different time by different methods. Our research aimed at solving this problem to provide a high available level, flexible coordination system. In this paper, a multi-agent framework is proposed. This framework is validated by using our new concept of slave agents, a responsive multi-agent environment, a virtual directory facilitator (VDF), and a task allocation system using contract net protocol. Our system uses a mixed model between distributed and centralized model. It uses a centralized agent management system (AMS) to control the overall system. However, the partners and users may be distributed agents connected to the center through agent communication or centralized at the AMS container using the slave agents to represent the physical agents. The system is able to determine the task allocation for a group of robot working as a team to provide a service. A number of experiments have been conducted successfully in our lab environment using Issac robot, a PDA for user agent and a wireless network system, operated under our multi agent framework control. The experiments show that this framework works well and provides some advantages to existing systems.

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