• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty factor

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A Study on the Application of Measures of Travel Time Variability by Analysis of Travel Time Distribution According to Weather Factor (기상요인에 따른 통행시간 분포 분석을 통한 통행시간 변동성 지표의 적정성 연구)

  • Kim, Jun-Won;Kim, Young-Chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2015
  • Travellers consider extra travel time to be arriving their destination because of uncertainty of travel. So it is important to make predictable highway by providing information of travel time variability to traveller so as to enhance level of service at highway. In order to make predictable highway, it is necessary to develope measures of travel time variability that travellers can easily understand. Recently advanced country including the United States, travel time variability index are actively studied. In earlier study, 95percentile of travel time is considered to be most important calculation index of travel time variability. In this study, is has focused on the propriety analysis of 95percentile of travel time in domestic transportation environment. Result of analysis, All of measures(80percentile of travel time, 90percentile of travel time, 95percentile of travel time) show the tendency to increase when case of weather factor occur compare to normal condition under LOS A~D. Especially 95percentile of travel time increased sensitively.

A Study on Practical Method of Utility Curve for Deciding Priority Order of the Improvements in Traffic Safety Audit (교통안전진단 개선방안들의 우선순위 산정 연구)

  • Choi, Ji Hye;Kang, Soon Yang;Hong, Ji Yeon;Lim, Joon Beom
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2016
  • Recently, a massive loss of life and property is occurring in Korea due to traffic accidents, with the rapid increase in cars. For improvement of traffic safety, the Korea Transportation Safety Authority intensively analyzes accident data in local governments with low traffic safety index, performs a field investigation to extract problems and offers local governments improvements for problems, by conducting the 'Special Survey of Actual Conditions of Traffic Safety' each year, starting 2008. But local governments cannot strongly push forward the improvement projects due to the limited budget and the uncertainty of the improvement plan effects. Therefore, this study suggested a model which applied the Utility concept to the AHP theory, in order to efficiently decide a priority of the improvement plans in accident black spots in consideration of the limited budget of local governments. The number of accidents in each spot for improvement and accident severity, traffic volume, pedestrian volume, the improvement project cost and the accident reduction effect were chosen as evaluation factors for deciding a priority, and data about the improvement plan costs and the accident reduction effects, traffic accidents and traffic volume in the spots to undergo the special research on the real condition of traffic accident in the past were collected from the existing studies. Then, regression analysis was carried out and the Utility Curve of each evaluation factor was computed. Based on the AHP analysis findings, this study devised a priority decision method which calculated the weight and the utility function of each evaluation factor and compared the total utility values. The AHP analysis findings showed that among the evaluation factors, accident severity had the biggest importance and it was followed by the improvement plan cost, the number of accidents, the improvement effect, traffic volume and pedestrian volume. The calculated utility function shows a rise in utility, as the variables of the 5 evaluation factors; the number of accidents, accident severity, the improvement plan effect, traffic volume and pedestrian volume increase and a fall in utility, as the variables of the improvement plan cost increase, since the improvement plan cost is included in the budget spent by a local government.

Parameter Decision of Muskingum Channel Routing Method Based on the Linear System Assumption (선형시스템가정에 근거한 Muskingum 하도추적방법의 매개변수 결정)

  • Yoo, Chulsang;Sin, Jiye;Jun, Chang Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.449-463
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    • 2013
  • This study proposes the method for determining the Muskingum channel routing model parameters based on the assumption of linear system. The proposed method was applied to the Chungju dam basin for the evaluation. Additionally, the rainfall-runoff was repeated for the Yeongchun-Chungju dam reach using seven rainfall events observed. Summarizing the results is as follows. First, the concentration time and storage coefficient of a channel reach formed by the subdivision can be expressed as the difference between the concentration times and storage coefficients of upstream and downstream basins. The storage coefficients of the channel reach estimated is equal to the storage coefficient of the Muskingum channel routing model and the weight factor can be simply estimated using the ratio between the concentration time and storage coefficient. Second, the weight factor of the Muskingum model is in inverse proportion to the Russel coefficient, which is in between 0.4166 and 0.625 when considering the Russel coefficients generally applied. Finally the application to the Yeongchun-Chungju dam reach showed that the proposed method is still valid regardless of the limitations such as the uncertainty of the observed data.

Evaluation of Factors Used in AAPM TG-43 Formalism Using Segmented Sources Integration Method and Monte Carlo Simulation: Implementation of microSelectron HDR Ir-192 Source (미소선원 적분법과 몬테칼로 방법을 이용한 AAPM TG-43 선량계산 인자 평가: microSelectron HDR Ir-192 선원에 대한 적용)

  • Ahn, Woo-Sang;Jang, Won-Woo;Park, Sung-Ho;Jung, Sang-Hoon;Cho, Woon-Kap;Kim, Young-Seok;Ahn, Seung-Do
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.190-197
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    • 2011
  • Currently, the dose distribution calculation used by commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs) for high-dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy is derived from point and line source approximation method recommended by AAPM Task Group 43 (TG-43). However, the study of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is required in order to assess the accuracy of dose calculation around three-dimensional Ir-192 source. In this study, geometry factor was calculated using segmented sources integration method by dividing microSelectron HDR Ir-192 source into smaller parts. The Monte Carlo code (MCNPX 2.5.0) was used to calculate the dose rate $\dot{D}(r,\theta)$ at a point ($r,\theta$) away from a HDR Ir-192 source in spherical water phantom with 30 cm diameter. Finally, anisotropy function and radial dose function were calculated from obtained results. The obtained geometry factor was compared with that calculated from line source approximation. Similarly, obtained anisotropy function and radial dose function were compared with those derived from MCPT results by Williamson. The geometry factor calculated from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was within 0.2% for $r{\geq}0.5$ cm and 1.33% for r=0.1 cm, respectively. The relative-root mean square error (R-RMSE) of anisotropy function obtained by this study and Williamson was 2.33% for r=0.25 cm and within 1% for r>0.5 cm, respectively. The R-RMSE of radial dose function was 0.46% at radial distance from 0.1 to 14.0 cm. The geometry factor acquired from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was in good agreement for $r{\geq}0.1$ cm. However, application of segmented sources integration method seems to be valid, since this method using three-dimensional Ir-192 source provides more realistic geometry factor. The anisotropy function and radial dose function estimated from MCNPX in this study and MCPT by Williamson are in good agreement within uncertainty of Monte Carlo codes except at radial distance of r=0.25 cm. It is expected that Monte Carlo code used in this study could be applied to other sources utilized for brachytherapy.

Determination of Electron Beam Output Factors of Individual Applicator for ML-15MDX Linear Accelerator (선형가속기 ML-15MDX의 각 Applicator에 대한 전자선 출력선량 계수 결정)

  • Park, Tae-Jin;Kim, Ok-Bae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 1994
  • Purpose : The determination of electron beam output factor was investigated from individual applicator for various energy of ML-15MDX linear accelerator. The output factor of electron beam was extended from square to rectangular field in individual applicator size through with a least-square fit to a polynomial expression. Materials : In this experiments. the measurement of output was obtained from 2${\times}$cm$^2$ to 20${\times}$20cm$^2$ of field size in different applicator size for 4 to 15 MaV electron beam energy. The output factor was defined as the ratio of maximum dose output on the central axis of the field of individual applicator size to that of a given field size. Applicator factors were derived from comparing with the output dose of reference field size 10${\times}$10cm$^2$. The thickness of block was specially designed as 10mm in thickness of Lipowitz metal for field shaping in all electron energy. Two types of output curves are included as output factors versus side of square fields and that of variable side length for X and Y in one-dimensional to compare the expected values to that of experiments. Results : Expected output factors of rectangular which was derived from that of square fields in individual applicator size from 2${\times}$2cm$^2$ to 20${\times}$20cm$^2$ in different electron energy was very closed to that of experimental measurements within 2% uncertainty. However 1D method showed a 3% discrepancy in small rectangular field for low energy electron beam. Conclusion : Emperical non-linear polynomial regressions of square root and 1D method were performed to determin the output factor in various field size and electron energy. The expected output of electron beam of square root method for square field and 1D method for rectangular field were very closed to that of measurement in all selected electron beam energy.

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A Study on Electron Dose Distribution of Cones for Intraoperative Radiation Therapy (수술중 전자선치료에 있어서 선량분포에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Wee-Saing;Ha, Sung-Whan;Yun, Hyong-Geun
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1992
  • For intraoperative radiation therapy using electron beams, a cone system to deliver a large dose to the tumor during surgical operation and to save the surrounding normal tissue should be developed and dosimetry for the cone system is necessary to find proper X-ray collimator setting as well as to get useful data for clinical use. We developed a docking type of a cone system consisting of two parts made of aluminum: holder and cone. The cones which range from 4cm to 9cm with 1cm step at 100cm SSD of photon beam are 28cm long circular tubular cylinders. The system has two 26cm long holders: one for the cones larger than or equal to 7cm diamter and another for the smaller ones than 7cm. On the side of the holder is an aperture for insertion of a lamp and mirror to observe treatment field. Depth dose curve. dose profile and output factor at dept of dose maximum. and dose distribution in water for each cone size were measured with a p-type silicone detector controlled by a linear scanner for several extra opening of X-ray collimators. For a combination of electron energy and cone size, the opening of the X-ray collimator was caused to the surface dose, depths of dose maximum and 80%, dose profile and output factor. The variation of the output factor was the most remarkable. The output factors of 9MeV electron, as an example, range from 0.637 to 1.549. The opening of X-ray collimators would cause the quantity of scattered electrons coming to the IORT cone system. which in turn would change the dose distribution as well as the output factor. Dosimetry for an IORT cone system is inevitable to minimize uncertainty in the clinical use.

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Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

External Auditing on Absorbed Dose Using a Solid Water Phantom for Domestic Radiotherapy Facilities (고체팬텀을 이용한 국내 방사선 치료시설의 흡수선량에 대한 조사)

  • Choi, Chang-Heon;Kim, Jung-In;Park, Jong-Min;Park, Yang-Kyun;Cho, Kun-Woo;Cho, Woon-Kap;Lim, Chun-Il;Ye, Sung-Joon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: We report the results of an external audit on the absorbed dose of radiotherapy beams independently performed by third parties. For this effort, we developed a method to measure the absorbed dose to water in an easy and convenient setup of solid water phantom. Materials and Methods: In 2008, 12 radiotherapy centers voluntarily participated in the external auditing program and 47 beams of X-ray and electron were independently calibrated by the third party’s American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) task group (TG)-51 protocol. Even though the AAPM TG-51 protocol recommended the use of water, water as a phantom has a few disadvantages, especially in a busy clinic. Instead, we used solid water phantom due to its reproducibility and convenience in terms of setup and transport. Dose conversion factors between solid water and water were determined for photon and electron beams of various energies by using a scaling method and experimental measurements. Results: Most of the beams (74%) were within ${\pm}2%$ of the deviation from the third party's protocol. However, two of 20 X-ray beams and three of 27 electron beams were out of the tolerance (${\pm}3%$), including two beams with a >10% deviation. X-ray beams of higher than 6 MV had no conversion factors, while a 6 MV absorbed dose to a solid water phantom was 0.4% less than the dose to water. The electron dose conversion factors between the solid water phantom and water were determined: The higher the electron energy, the less is the conversion factor. The total uncertainty of the TG-51 protocol measurement using a solid water phantom was determined to be ${\pm}1.5%$. Conclusion: The developed method was successfully applied for the external auditing program, which could be evolved into a credential program of multi-institutional clinical trials. This dosimetry saved time for measuring doses as well as decreased the uncertainty of measurement possibly resulting from the reference setup in water.

Development of Carbon Emission Factors and Biomass Allometric Equations for Metasequoia glyptostroboides and Platanus occidentalis in Urban Forests (정주지의 메타세쿼이아와 양버즘나무의 탄소 배출 계수 및 바이오매스 상대생장식 개발)

  • Jun-Young Jung;Subin Im;Hyun-Jun Kim;Kye-Han Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to develop biomass allometric equations and estimate carbon emission factors, such as the wood density, biomass-expansion factor, and root-to-shoot ratio, for Platanus occidentalis and Metasequoia glyptostroboides planted in urban areas. Twenty M. glyptostroboides and 25 P. occidentalis trees were harvested, and the dry weights and stem volumes of stems, branches, leaves, and roots (>5 mm) were measured. The wood densities of M. glyptostroboides and P. occidentalis were 0.293 ± 0.008 g cm-3 and 0.509 ± 0.018 g cm-3, and the biomass-expansion factors were 1.738 ± 0.031 and 1.561 ± 0.035. The root-to-shoot ratios were 0.446 ± 0.009 and 0.402 ± 0.012. The uncertainty tests (coefficient of variation, %) gave 2.8% and 3.5% values for wood density, 1.8% and 2.3% for biomass-expansion factor, and 2.1% and 2.9% for root-to-shoot ratio, respectively. Among the developed allometric equations, Model I using the diameter at breast height (DBH) was suitable. The allometric equations of M. glyptostroboides and P. occidentalis above ground were y = 1.679 (DBH)1.315 and y = 0.505 (DBH)1.896, and the allometric equations of the root and total were y = 0.746 (DBH)1.315, y = 0.301 (DBH)1.751, y = 2.422 (DBH)1.316, and y = 0.787 (DBH)1.858. If the carbon-emission factors of this study and biomass allometric equations of the three developed models are used to estimate the carbon storage and biomass of urban forests, errors caused by not considering the use of fixed factors and the environmental differences can be reduced.

Development of a Deterministic Optimization Model for Design of an Integrated Utility and Hydrogen Supply Network (유틸리티 네트워크와 수소 공급망 통합 네트워크 설계를 위한 결정론적 최적화 모델 개발)

  • Hwangbo, Soonho;Han, Jeehoon;Lee, In-Beum
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.603-612
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    • 2014
  • Lots of networks are constructed in a large scale industrial complex. Each network meet their demands through production or transportation of materials which are needed to companies in a network. Network directly produces materials for satisfying demands in a company or purchase form outside due to demand uncertainty, financial factor, and so on. Especially utility network and hydrogen network are typical and major networks in a large scale industrial complex. Many studies have been done mainly with focusing on minimizing the total cost or optimizing the network structure. But, few research tries to make an integrated network model by connecting utility network and hydrogen network In this study, deterministic mixed integer linear programming model is developed for integrating utility network and hydrogen network. Steam Methane Reforming process is necessary for combining two networks. After producing hydrogen from Steam-Methane Reforming process whose raw material is steam vents from utility network, produced hydrogen go into hydrogen network and fulfill own needs. Proposed model can suggest optimized case in integrated network model, optimized blueprint, and calculate optimal total cost. The capability of the proposed model is tested by applying it to Yeosu industrial complex in Korea. Yeosu industrial complex has the one of the biggest petrochemical complex and various papers are based in data of Yeosu industrial complex. From a case study, the integrated network model suggests more optimal conclusions compared with previous results obtained by individually researching utility network and hydrogen network.