• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty factor

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Probabilistic estimation of fully coupled blasting pressure transmitted to rock mass II - Estimation of rise time - (암반에 전달된 밀장전 발파입력의 획률론적 예측 II - 최대압력 도달시간 예측을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Bong-Ki;Lee, In-Mo;Kim, Sang-Gyun;Lee, Sang-Don;Cho, Kook-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.25-40
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    • 2004
  • The supersonic shock wave generated by fully coupled explosion will change into subsonic shock wave, plastic wave, and elastic wave consecutively as the wave propagates through rock mass. While the estimation of the blast-induced peak pressure was the main aim of the companion paper, this paper will concentrate on the estimation of the rise time of blast-induced pressure. The rise time can be expressed as a function of explosive density, isentropic exponent, detonation velocity, exponential coefficient of the peak pressure attenuation, dynamic yield stress, plastic wave velocity, elastic wave velocity, rock density, Hugoniot parameters, etc. Parametric analysis was performed to pinpoint the most influential parameter that affects the rise time and it was found that rock properties are more sensitive than explosive properties. The probabilistic distribution of the rise time is evaluated by the Rosenblueth'S point estimate method from the probabilistic distributions of explosive properties and rock properties. Numerical analysis was performed to figure out the effect of rock properties and explosive properties on the uncertainty of blast-induced vibration. Uncertainty analysis showed that uncertainty of rock properties constitutes the main portion of blast-induced vibration uncertainty rather than that of explosive properties. Numerical analysis also showed that the loading rate, which is the ratio of the peak blasting pressure to the rise time, is the main influential factor on blast-induced vibration. The loading rate is again more influenced by rock properties than by explosive properties.

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A Harmonized Method for Dose-response Risk Assessment Based on the Hazard & Risk Evaluation of Chemicals (HREC) According to the Industrial Safety and Health Act (ISHA) (산업안전보건법 상 유해성.위험성 평가제도 적용을 위한 양-반응 평가의 통일화 방안 연구)

  • Lim, Cheol-Hong;Yang, Jeong-Sun;Park, Sang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.175-183
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: This study developed a harmonized method for risk assessment based on the Hazard & Risk Evaluation of Chemicals (HREC) according to the Industrial Safety and Health Act (ISHA). Methods: Three preliminary studies, performed during 2010 and 2011 by the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute and three academic research groups, were compared. The differences in risk assessment, especially in the dose-response assessment method, were analyzed. A new harmonized method for dose-response assessment was suggested and its applicability for the HREC was examined. Results: Considering the various steps of each dose-response assessment, the equivalent steps in quantitative correction, uncertainty factor 2 (UF2) for intra-species uncertainty, and UF3 for the experimental period in the uncertainty correction were relatively high. Using our new method, the total correction values (quantitative correction plus uncertainty correction) ranged from 72~15,789 to 30~60, and the ratio of the threshold limit value (TLV) to the reference concentration decreased from 12.8~1900 to 5.4~11.8. Furthermore, when we performed risk characterization by our new method, hazard quotient (HQ) values for chloroethylene, epichlorohydrin, and barium sulfate became 3.0, 14.1, and 1.13 respectively, whereas three previous studies reported HQ values of 7.1, 4580, and 87.3 considering reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. HQs of the three chemicals were calculated to be 0.6, 2.4, and 0.1 respectively, when compared to their TLVs. Conclusions: Our new method could be applicable for the HREC because the total correction values and the ratio of TLVs were within reasonable ranges. It is also recommended that additional risk management measures be applied for epichlorohydrin, for which the HQ values were greater than 1 when compared with both reference values and the TLV. Our proposed method could be used to harmonize dose-response assessment methods for the implementation of risk assessment based on the HREC according to ISHA.

Analysis on Adequacy of the Satellite Soil Moisture Data (AMSR2, ASCAT, and ESACCI) in Korean Peninsula: With Classification of Freezing and Melting Periods (인공위성 기반 토양 수분 자료들(AMSR2, ASCAT, and ESACCI)의 한반도 적절성 분석: 동결과 융해 기간을 구분하여)

  • Baik, Jongjin;Cho, Seongkeun;Lee, Seulchan;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.625-636
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    • 2019
  • Soil moisture is a representative factor that plays a key role in hydrological cycle. It is involved in the interaction between atmosphere and land surface, and is used in fields such as agriculture and water resources. Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), and European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESACCI) data were used to analyze the applicability and uncertainty of satellite soil moisture product in the Korean peninsula. Cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching and triple collocation (TC) analysis were carried out to investigate uncertainty and correction of satellite soil moisture data. Comparisons of pre-calibration satellite soil moisture data with the Automated Agriculture Observing System (AAOS) indicated that ESACCI and ASCAT data reflect the trend of AAOS well. On the other hand, AMSR2 satellite data showed overestimated values during the freezing period. Correction of satellite soil moisture data using CDF matching improved the error and correlation compared to those before correction. Finally, uncertainty analysis of soil moisture was carried out using TC method. Clearly, the uncertainty of the satellite soil moisture, corrected by CDF matching, was diminished in both freezing and thawing periods. Overall, it is expected that using ASCAT and ESACCI rather than AMSR2 soil moisture data will give more accurate soil moisture information when correction is performed on the Korean peninsula.

Spatiotemporal Uncertainty of Rainfall Erosivity Factor Estimated Using Different Methodologies (적용 기법에 따른 강우침식인자 산정 결과의 시공간적 불확실성)

  • Hwang, Syewoon;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Shin, Sangmin;Yoo, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.6
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2016
  • RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is the empirical formular widely used to estimate rates of soil erosion caused by rainfall and associated overland flow. Among the factors considered in RUSLE, rainfall erosivity factor (R factor) is the major one derived by rainfall intensity and characteristics of rainfall event. There has been developed various methods to estimate R factor, such as energy based methods considering physical schemes of soil erosion and simple methods using the empirical relationship between soil erosion and annual total rainfall. This study is aimed to quantitatively evaluate the variation among the R factors estimated using different methods for South Korea. Station based observation (minutely rainfall data) were collected for 72 stations to investigate the characteristics of rainfall events over the country and similarity and differentness of R factors calculated by each method were compared in various ways. As results use of simple methods generally provided greater R factors comparing to those for energy based methods by 76 % on average and also overestimated the range of factors using different equations. The variation coefficient of annual R factors was calculated as 0.27 on average and the results significantly varied by the stations. Additionally the study demonstrated the rank of methods that would provide exclusive results comparing to others for each station. As it is difficult to find universal way to estimate R factors for specific regions, the efforts to validate and integrate various methods are required to improve the applicability and accuracy of soil erosion estimation.

Measurement of Proton Beam Dose-Averaged Linear Energy Transfer Using a Radiochromic Film

  • Seohyeon An;Sang-il Pak;Seonghoon Jeong;Soonki Min;Tae Jeong Kim;Dongho Shin;Youngkyung Lim;Jong Hwi Jeong;Haksoo Kim;Se Byeong Lee
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Proton therapy has different relative biological effectiveness (RBE) compared with X-ray treatment, which is the standard in radiation therapy, and the fixed RBE value of 1.1 is widely used. However, RBE depends on a charged particle's linear energy transfer (LET); therefore, measuring LET is important. We have developed a LET measurement method using the inefficiency characteristic of an EBT3 film on a proton beam's Bragg peak (BP) region. Methods: A Gafchromic EBT3 film was used to measure the proton beam LET. It measured the dose at a 10-cm pristine BP proton beam in water to determine the quenching factor of the EBT3 film as a reference beam condition. Monte Carlo (MC) calculations of dose-averaged LET (LETd) were used to determine the quenching factor and validation. The dose-averaged LETs at the 12-, 16-, and 20-cm pristine BP proton beam in water were calculated with the quenching factor. Results: Using the passive scattering proton beam nozzle of the National Cancer Center in Korea, the LETd was measured for each beam range. The quenching factor was determined to be 26.15 with 0.3% uncertainty under the reference beam condition. The dose-averaged LETs were measured for each test beam condition. Conclusions: We developed a method for measuring the proton beam LET using an EBT3 film. This study showed that the magnitude of the quenching effect can be estimated using only one beam range, and the quenching factor determined under the reference condition can be applied to any therapeutic proton beam range.

Improvement of Ammonia Emission Inventory Estimation Methodology for Fertilizer Application in the Agricultural Sector (농업부문 비료사용 농경지의 암모니아 배출량 산정방법 개선)

  • Choi, Hanmin;Hyun, Junge;Kim, You Jin;Yoo, Gayoung
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.237-242
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    • 2019
  • Ammonia is main precursor gas of secondary particulate matter and contributes almost 78% of total ammonia emission from the agricultural sector in Korea. The current method of estimating ammonia emission from fertilizer application, which contributes 7% of the total emission, has high uncertainty and needs to be improved to better predict PM2.5 concentration. In this study, we suggest an improvement method for ammonia emission quantification from fertilizer application. The first improvement was in the emission factor of NPK fertilizer by conducting a field study to verify the currently used factor. The improved NPK emission factor of 52.2 kg NH ton-1N was confirmed by comparing with the value from the EEA (European Environment Agency) and adjusting the value for the Korean climate and soil conditions. We also improved the amount of fertilizer usage by including the sales amount to the fertilizer supply amount of the Korean Farmers Association, increasing total fertilizer usage by 39.8%. As the statistical data on fertilizer supply and sales are compiled yearly, we estimated monthly emission of ammonia by considering cultivated areas and timing of fertilization for each crop. In summary, we suggest a novel and practical method to improve estimation methodology of ammonia emission from the field of fertilizer application: 1) emission factor of NPK fertilizer was reconfirmed; 2) total amount of fertilizer use was revised considering fertilizer sales; and 3) monthly emission of ammonia was realized by considering different crop practices. A bottom-up approach to compile activity data is needed to increase the estimation accuracy of monthly emission of ammonia, which is very helpful for predicting PM2.5 concentration.

Surrogate Model-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis of an I-Shape Curved Steel Girder Bridge under Seismic Loads (지진하중을 받는 I형 곡선거더 단경간 교량의 대리모델 기반 전역 민감도 분석)

  • Jun-Tai, Jeon;Hoyoung Son;Bu-Seog, Ju
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.976-983
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The dynamic behavior of a bridge structure under seismic loading depends on many uncertainties, such as the nature of the seismic waves and the material and geometric properties. However, not all uncertainties have a significant impact on the dynamic behavior of a bridge structure. Since probabilistic seismic performance evaluation considering even low-impact uncertainties is computationally expensive, the uncertainties should be identified by considering their impact on the dynamic behavior of the bridge. Therefore, in this study, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the main parameters affecting the dynamic behavior of bridges with I-curved girders. Method: Considering the uncertainty of the earthquake and the material and geometric uncertainty of the curved bridge, a finite element analysis was performed, and a surrogate model was developed based on the analysis results. The surrogate model was evaluated using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination, and finally, a global sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model was performed. Result: The uncertainty factors that have the greatest influence on the stress response of the I-curved girder under seismic loading are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the height of the bridge (h), and the yield stress of the steel (fy). The main effect sensitivity indices of PGA, h, and fy were found to be 0.7096, 0.0839, and 0.0352, respectively, and the total sensitivity indices were found to be 0.9459, 0.1297, and 0.0678, respectively. Conclusion: The stress response of the I-shaped curved girder is dominated by the uncertainty of the input motions and is strongly influenced by the interaction effect between each uncertainty factor. Therefore, additional sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty of the input motions, such as the number of input motions and the intensity measure(IM), and a global sensitivity analysis considering the structural uncertainty, such as the number and curvature of the curved girders, are required.

Influence factor analysis on the measurement of smoke density from floor materials in rolling stock (철도차량 바닥재 연기밀도 측정의 영향인자분석)

  • Kwon, Tae-Soon;Lee, Duck-Hee;Park, Won-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.629-634
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we investigated the effect of factors that influence the measurement of smoke density using synthetic rubber flooring. The characteristics of rolling stock in an enclosed environment can cause enormous loss of life by smoke inhalation during fires inside passenger cars. The amount of smoke generation from interior materials for rolling stock is strictly restricted domestically and in other countries. Precise measurement of smoke density is therefore required to assess the fire performance of interior materials. Major factors that influence the measurement of smoke density include the uniformity of the specimen, the variations in conditions and instruments, and the operational and maintenance environment of the instruments. The contribution of factors was analyzed by estimating the uncertainty to investigate the contribution ratios of the major factors. The results show a contribution ratio of about 86% for the variation from the measurement of light transmission using a photomultiplier tube. Thus, this factor was the most representative for the measurement of smoke density. The contribution ratio of the other factors was low at about 11%, including irradiant flux conditions (${\pm}0.5 kW/m^2$) and the influence of the operational and maintenance environment of the instrument. These results were obtained using specimens with high uniformity.

Validation of the Need for Closure Scale-Short Form (단축형 종결 욕구의 타당화)

  • Kim, Eunkyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.166-173
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of the present study was to validate the Need for Closure Scale-Short Form (NFCS-SF), which measures the need for cognitive closure. Participants completed questionnaires regarding need for cognitive closure, intolerance of uncertainty, depression, and anxiety. Of the 536 data collected between May and July 2017, data from a total of 495 participants were analyzed using SPSS 20.0 and M-Plus. The results of the study are as follows. First, a 15-item selection comprised three items from each facet scale via exploratory factor analysis. Second, the NFCS-SF demonstrated good internal consistency (Study 1, Cronbach's α=.85; Study 2, Cronbach's α=.84). Third, the results of the confirmatory factor analyses supported a 5-factor model (χ2(80)=178.34, p<.001; CFI=.87, TLI=.83, RMSEA=.07, SRMR=.08). Fourth, the NFCS-SF showed significant correlation with the measures of intolerance of uncertainty (r=.58, p<.01), depression (r=.16, p<.05), and anxiety (state anxiety, r=.31, p<.01; trait anxiety, r=.29, as well as the NFCS (r=.86, p<.01). Based on these findings, significance and limitations of the results as well as suggestions for further study are discussed.

Estimation Method of Creep Coefficient in Concrete Structures (콘크리트 구조물에서 크리프 계수 추정 방법)

  • Park, Jong-Bum;Park, Jung-Il;Chang, Sung-Pil;Cho, Jae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.619-628
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    • 2009
  • To predict the time-dependent behavior of concrete structures, the models which describe the time-dependent characteristics of concrete, i.e. creep and shrinkage are required. However, there must be significant differences between the displacements that are obtained using the given creep and shrinkage models and the measured displacements, because of the uncertainties of creep and shrinkage model itself and those of environmental condition. There are some efforts to reduce these error or uncertainties by using the model which are obtained from creep test for the concrete in construction site. Nevertheless, the predicted values from this model may be still different from the actual values due to the same reason. This study aimed to propose a method of estimating the creep coefficient from the measured displacements of concrete structure, where creep model uncertainty factor was considered as an error factor of creep model. Numerical validation for double composite steel box and concrete beam showed desirable feasibility of the presented method. Consideration of the time-dependent characteristics of creep as one of the error factors make it possible to predict long-term behaviors of concrete structures more realistically, especially long-span PSC girder bridges and concrete cable-stayed bridges of which major problem is the geometry control under construction and maintenance.