• 국제학술발표논문집
• /
• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
• /
• pp.502-506
• /
• 2013

The cash flow forecasting is normally done by contractors in construction industry at early stages of the project for contractual decisions. The decision making in such situations involve uncertainty about future cash flows and assessment of working capital requirements gains more importance in projects constrained by cash. The traditional approach to assess the working capital requirements is deterministic in and neglects the uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate approach to assessment of working capital requirements for contractor based on fuzzy set theory by considering the uncertainty and ambiguity involved at payment periods. Statistical methods are used to deal with the uncertainty for working capital curves. Membership functions of the fuzzy sets are developed based on these statistical measures. Advantage of fuzzy peak working capital requirements is demonstrated using peak working capital requirements curves. Fuzzy peak working capital requirements curves are compared with deterministic curves and the results are analyzed. Fuzzy weighted average methodology is proposed for the assessment of peak working capital requirements.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제37권3호
• /
• pp.245-258
• /
• 2005

This paper addresses two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty in probabilistic accident consequence assessments. The off-site consequence assessment code OSCAAR has been applied to uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the individual risks of early fatality and latent cancer fatality in the population outside the plant boundary due to a severe accident. A new stratified meteorological sampling scheme was successfully implemented into the trajectory model for atmospheric dispersion and the statistical variability of the probability distributions of the consequence was examined. A total of 65 uncertain input parameters was considered and 128 runs of OSCAAR with 144 meteorological sequences were performed in the parameter uncertainty analysis. The study provided the range of uncertainty for the expected values of individual risks of early and latent cancer fatality close to the site. In the sensitivity analyses, the correlation/regression measures were useful for identifying those input parameters whose uncertainty makes an important contribution to the overall uncertainty for the consequence. This could provide valuable insights into areas for further research aiming at reducing the uncertainties.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.751-767
• /
• 2015

A new procedure is proposed for assessing probabilistic condition of structures considering effect of measured data uncertainty. In this procedure, multiple Finite Element (FE) models are identified by using weighting vectors that represent the uncertainty conditions of measured data. The distribution of structural parameters is analysed using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in relation to uncertainty conditions, and the identified models are classified into groups according to their similarity by using a K-means method. The condition of a structure is then assessed probabilistically using FE models in the classified groups, each of which represents specific uncertainty condition of measured data. Yeondae bridge, a steel-box girder expressway bridge in Korea, is used as an illustrative example. Probabilistic condition of the bridge is evaluated by the distribution of load rating factors obtained using multiple FE models. The numerical example shows that the proposed method can quantify uncertainty of measured data and subsequently evaluate efficiently the probabilistic condition of bridges.

• STI Policy Review
• /
• 제2권3호
• /
• pp.35-44
• /
• 2011

Korea has rapidly increased R&D investment over the last few decades and the intensity of R&D investment is among the highest in the world; however, there are serious concerns about R&D performance and R&D efficiency. This study is to improve the economic assessment methodology regarding a feasibility study for national R&D programs that are thought to be one of the most prominent ways to enhance R&D efficiency. In order to improve the methodology of economic assessment, a few of important factors such as technical or market uncertainty, spillover effect, and R&D contribution ratio should be covered in the model. The focus of this article is technological and market uncertainty that has a close relation with strategic flexibility and utilization potential to increase the value of R&D programs. To improve the current linear and definitive R&D process, a new framework with strategic flexibility is suggested, in which the result of economic assessment that considers technological and market uncertainty is reflected in planning. That kind of feedback process is expected to enhance the value of the program/project as well as R&D efficiency.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제51권spc1호
• /
• pp.1079-1089
• /
• 2018

기존 기후변화 영향평가에서 발생하는 불확실성에 대한 연구들은 전체과정에서 총 불확실성과 그 전파에 대한 것보다 각 단계별 불확실성에 초점을 맞추어 연구가 진행되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 first-order Taylor series expansion에 기반하여 전망의 분산을 이용하는 Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM)를 제안하였으며, 이 방법은 각 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 증감정도, 단계별 불확실성 비율, 총 불확실성의 전파 과정 제시가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 과정의 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정 분석을 위해 미래 2030년부터 2059년까지를 대상으로 2개 배출 시나리오, 3개 GCM, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하였다. 결과를 분석하면, UDM을 이용한 총 불확실성은 5.45(배출시나리오: 4.45, 상세화기법: 0.45, 상세화기법: 0.27, 수문모형: 0.28)이며, 배출 시나리오의 불확실성(4.45)이 가장 크게 나타났다. 불확실성은 각 단계를 거칠수록 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 어떠한 배출시나리오를 선정하느냐에 따라 미래 수자원전망이 매우 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 다음으로 Hawkins and Sutton (2009)가 제안한 Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM)을 이용한 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 분석에서 가장 불확실성이 큰 요인은 배출 시나리오(FUM 불확실성: 0.52)이며, 이 결과는 UDM 결과와 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서 이 연구에서 제안한 UDM은 기후변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 이해와 적합한 분석 및 미래 기후변화 대비 보다 나은 수자원 전망이 가능하도록 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• Water Engineering Research
• /
• 제3권4호
• /
• pp.215-234
• /
• 2002

Uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results was analyzed in order to provide the basis fer the investigation of their effects on the flood damage assessments and dam safety risk assessments. The Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling technique was used to generate random values for two uncertain input parameters (i.e., dam breach parameters and Manning's n roughness coefficients) of a dam breach flood routing analysis model. The flood routing results without considering the uncertainty in two input parameters were compared with those with considering the uncertainty. This paper showed that dam breach flood routing results heavily depend on the two uncertain input parameters. This study indicated that the flood damage assessments in the downstream areas can be critical if uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results are considered in a reasonable manner.

• Toxicological Research
• /
• 제17권
• /
• pp.17-24
• /
• 2001

Risk assessment is useful tool making good decisions on the risks of certain hazardous com-pound and suggests safe margin through scientific process using toxicological data, statistical tool, exposure value and relevant variants. The goal of risk management is to protect the public health from hazardous compound based on result of risk assessment having reality. For the suggestion of exact man-aging information, risk assessment must be designed to represent a "plausible estimate" of the exposure to the individuals and to minimize uncertainty. Risk assessment methodology and knowledge are expected to change more rapidly than before and up-to-date methodology should be applied in regulatory aspects through the Agency. For the useful application of risk assessment, the communication between the risk assessor and the risk manager is needed before the initiation of the risk assessment and upon its completion. Generally, the risk assessment itself as a practical tool in the regulatory decision making process would be regarded with social economic impact.ic impact.

• 한국유체기계학회 논문집
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.42-47
• /
• 2011

Measurement uncertainty analysis of fuel flow using turbine flowmeter was performed for the case of altitude engine test. SAE ARP4990 was used as the fuel flow calculation procedure, as well as the mathematical model for the measurement uncertainty assessment. The assessment was performed using Sensitivity Coefficient Method. 11 parameters involved in the calculation of the flow rate were considered. For the given equipment setup, the measurement uncertainty of fuel flow was assessed in the range of 1.19~1.86 % for high flow rate case, and 1.47~3.31 % for low flow rate case. Fluctuation in frequency signal from the flowmeter had the largest influence on the fuel flow measurement uncertainty for most cases. Fuel temperature measurement had the largest for the case of low temperature and low flow rate. Calibration of K-factor and the interpolation of the calibration data also had large influence, especially for the case of very low temperature. Reference temperature, at which the reference viscosity of the sample fuel was measured, had relatively small contribution, but it became larger when the operating fuel temperature was far from reference temperature. Measurement of reference density had small contribution on the flow rate uncertainty. Fuel pressure and atmospheric pressure measurement had virtually no contribution on the flow rate uncertainty.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제35권2호
• /
• pp.108-120
• /
• 2003

In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

• 국제강구조저널
• /
• 제18권5호
• /
• pp.1607-1616
• /
• 2018

Quantitatively modeling and propagating all sources of uncertainty stand at the core of seismic fragility assessment of structures. This paper investigates the effects of various sources of uncertainty on seismic responses and seismic fragility estimates of single-layer reticulated domes. Sensitivity analyses are performed to examine the sensitivity of typical seismic responses to uncertainties in structural modeling parameters, and the results suggest that the variability in structural damping, yielding strength, steel ultimate strain, dead load and snow load has significant effects on the seismic responses, and these five parameters should be taken as random variables in the seismic fragility assessment. Based on this, fragility estimates and fragility curves incorporating different levels of uncertainty are obtained on the basis of the results of incremental dynamic analyses on the corresponding set of 40 sample models generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The comparisons of these fragility curves illustrate that, the inclusion of only ground motion uncertainty is inappropriate and inadequate, and the appropriate way is incorporating the variability in the five identified structural modeling parameters as well into the seismic fragility assessment of single-layer reticulated domes.