• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertain data

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Exploring market uncertainty in early ship design

  • Zwaginga, Jesper;Stroo, Ko;Kana, Austin
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.352-366
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    • 2021
  • To decrease Europe's harmful emissions, the European Union aims to substantially increase its offshore wind energy capacity. To further develop offshore wind energy, investment in ever-larger construction vessels is necessary. However, this market is characterised by seemingly unpredictable growth of market demand, turbine capacity and distance from shore. Currently it is difficult to deal with such market uncertainty within the ship design process. This research aims to develop a method that is able to deal with market uncertainty in early ship design by increasing knowledge when design freedom is still high. The method uses uncertainty modelling prior to the requirement definition stage by performing global research into the market, and during the concept design stage by iteratively co-evolving the vessel design and business case in parallel. The method consists of three parts; simulating an expected market from data, modelling multiple vessel designs, and an uncertainty model that evaluates the performance of the vessels in the market. The case study into offshore wind foundation installation vessels showed that the method can provide valuable insight into the effect of ship parameters like main dimensions, crane size and ship speed on the performance in an uncertain market. These results were used to create a value robust design, which is capable of handling uncertainty without changes to the vessel. The developed method thus provides a way to deal with market uncertainty in the early ship design process.

Design wind speed prediction suitable for different parent sample distributions

  • Zhao, Lin;Hu, Xiaonong;Ge, Yaojun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.423-435
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    • 2021
  • Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

Prediction of duration and construction cost of road tunnels using Gaussian process regression

  • Mahmoodzadeh, Arsalan;Mohammadi, Mokhtar;Abdulhamid, Sazan Nariman;Ibrahim, Hawkar Hashim;Ali, Hunar Farid Hama;Nejati, Hamid Reza;Rashidi, Shima
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2022
  • Time and cost of construction are key factors in decision-making during a tunnel project's planning and design phase. Estimations of time and cost of tunnel construction projects are subject to significant uncertainties caused by uncertain geotechnical and geological conditions. The Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) technique for predicting ground condition and construction time and cost of mountain tunnel projects is used in this work. The GPR model is trained with data from past mountain tunnel projects. The model is applied to a case study in which the predicted time and cost of tunnel construction using the GPR model are compared with the actual construction time and cost for model validation and reducing the uncertainty for the future projects. In addition, the results obtained from the GPR have been compared with to other models of artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) that the GPR model provides more accurate results.

Molecular systematics of Poaceae based on eight chloroplast markers, emphasizing the phylogenetic positions of Korean taxa

  • LEE, Jung-Hoon;KIM, Ki-Joong;KIM, Bo-Yun;KIM, Young-Dong
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.127-143
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to clarify the phylogenetic position and relationships of Korean Poaceae taxa. A total of 438 taxa including 155 accessions of Korean Poaceae (representing 92% and 72% of Korean Poaceous genera and species, respectively) were employed for phylogeny reconstruction. Sequence data of eight chloroplast DNA markers were used for molecular phylogenetic analyses. The resulted phylogeny was mostly concordant with previous phylogenetic hypotheses, especially in terms of subfamilial and tribal relationships. Several taxa-specific indels were detected in the molecular phylogeny, including a 45 bp deletion in rps3 (PACMAD [Panicoideae, Arundinoideae, Chloridoideae, Micrairoideae, Aristidoideae, Danthonioideae] clade), a 15 bp deletion in ndhF (Oryzeae + Phyllorachideae), a 6 bp deletion in trnLF (Poeae s.l.), and two (17 bp and 378 bp) deletions in atpF-H (Pooideae). The Korean Poaceae members were classified into 23 tribes, representing eight subfamilies. The subfamilial and tribal classifications of the Korean taxa were generally congruent with a recently published system, whereas some subtribes and genera were found to be non-monophyletic. The taxa included in the PACMAD clade (especially Andropogoneae) showed very weak and uncertain phylogenetic relationships, presumably to be due to evolutionary radiation and polyploidization. The reconstructed phylogeny can be utilized to update the taxonomic positions of the newly examined grass accessions.

Method for determining the design load of an aluminium handrail on an offshore platform

  • Kim, Yeon Ho;Park, Joo Shin;Lee, Dong Hun;Seo, Jung Kwan
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.511-525
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    • 2021
  • Aluminium outfitting is widely used in offshore platforms owing to its anti-corrosion ability and its light weight. However, various standards exist (ISO, NORSOK and EN) for the design of handrails used in offshore platforms, and different suppliers have different criteria. This causes great confusion for designers. Moreover, the design load required by the standards is not clearly defined or is uncertain. Thus, many offshore projects reference previous project details or are conservatively designed without additional clarification. In this study, all of the codes and standards were reviewed and analysed through prior studies, and data on variable factors that directly and indirectly affect the handrails applied to offshore platforms were analysed. A total of 50 handrail design load scenarios were proposed through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. To verify the proposed new handrail design load selection scenario, structural analysis was performed using SACS (offshore structural analysis software). This new proposal through deterministic and probabilistic approaches is expected to improve safety by clarifying the purpose of the handrails. Furthermore, the acceptance criteria for probabilistic scenarios for handrails suggest considering the frequency of handrail use and the design life of offshore platforms to prevent excessive design. This study is expected to prevent trial and error in handrail design while maintaining overall worker safety by applying a loading scenario suitable for the project environment to enable optimal handrail design.

Investigating Factors that affect Attitude on Electric Vehicles for Global Climate Change and Environmental Policy

  • Hyeongdae MUN;Yooncheong CHO
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate how consumers perceive electric vehicles and factors that affect attitude, satisfaction, and intention to use electric vehicles and to explore policy issues regarding climate change and global environment. By classifying actual and potential users, this study developed the following research questions: i) factors including economic feasibility, sociality, environmental sustainability, inefficiency, inconvenience, convenience, and uncertainty affect attitude to electric vehicles; ii) attitude to electric vehicles affects actual consumers' satisfaction; and iii) attitude to electric vehicles affects potential users' intention to use. Research design, data and methodology: This study conducted an online survey and applied factor and regression analyses and ANOVA to test hypotheses. Results: The results of this study found that economic feasibility and convenience factors significantly affect attitude in both cases of actual and potential users. How actual users perceive efficiency of electric vehicles negatively and uncertain issues such as battery technology affect attitude to electric vehicles. Conclusions: This study provides policy implications that foster promotional policies for the adoption of electric vehicles for environment and regulate negative aspects. This study also provides managerial implications for manufacturers to develop better technology competences to enhance reliability on electric vehicles.

Social Support in the Times of Social Distancing: Learnings from the South Asian Context

  • BASHIR, Mohsin;SALEEM, Ammara;ALI, Qamar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2022
  • This study will examine the relationship between social support from the work and family domains, referred to as multiple social network ties (MSNT), and employees' job and family-related performance outcomes during the COVID-19 crisis. The study also demonstrates the importance of employees' work-family balance (WFB) in moderating the association between MSNT and job and family-related performance. A two-wave design was used to collect data from 320 managerial level personnel in Pakistan's textile sector. The path analysis technique of structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to analyze the responses. In times of crisis, social support mechanisms could potentially replace organizational support mechanisms for employees dealing with work and family obligations, according to the study. The findings of this study show that work-family balance is a significant partial mediator between MSNT and employees' job and family-related outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a best-fit model. This research supports the pragmatic view of MSNT's action mechanism in generating jobs for employees and family-related results, especially in uncertain situations. According to the findings, employees who have a positive work-life balance are happier and more productive in both work and personal life. It has major implications for human resource management (HRM) research and practice.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Earnings Management in the Distribution and Service Industries

  • RYU, Haeyoung;CHAE, Soo-Joon
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to investigate whether distribution and service companies maintained their accounting information quality and provided reliable information despite the economic changes occurring after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. The distribution industry has enjoyed increased demand as many companies expanded their untact distribution channels, including to online sales. However, as the pandemic drags on, their future prospects remain uncertain. Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, we define 2018-2019 as the "pre COVID-19 period" and 2020 as the "post COVID-19 period." An empirical analysis was performed using a regression model that includes POST, the independent variable, indicating the post COVID-19 period, and discretionary accruals(DA), a proxy for earnings management, as a dependent variable. Results: The analysis shows that the coefficient of POST is significantly positive (+) for the dependent variable DA. This finding suggests that distribution and service companies engaged in more earnings management during the post COVID-19 period than during the pre COVID-19 period, indicating their awareness of the uncertainty of future business performance as the pandemic persists. An additional analysis confirmed that smaller companies with fewer stakeholders and higher information asymmetry tend to engage more in earnings management than larger companies.

Effects of Embeddedness and Structural Holes on Innovation Performance: The Moderating Role of Environmental Uncertainty

  • Minjung KIM
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The ability of a firm to acquire resources through marketing networks is crucial for its competitiveness. Nonetheless, the influence of these networks on the performance of a firm's innovation is still uncertain, particularly in the face of environmental uncertainty. This research investigates the impact of marketing networks, specifically network embeddedness and structural holes, on the performance of innovation in situations characterized by environmental uncertainty. Research design, data and methodology: The empirical examination was carried out within the framework of internal network entities, specifically the manufacturer-supplier-sub supplier relationships, involving the primary suppliers of a Korean engineering firm. Construct measures utilized in this study were derived from existing measures and prior research. A questionnaire survey was conducted with a major first-tier supplier of a Korean engineering firm. Proposed hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling. Results: The survey findings suggest that only network embeddedness has an impact on the perception of major first-tier suppliers regarding the buyer's innovation performance. Conclusions: To strengthen the empirical evidence regarding the effects of marketing networks on innovation performance, future research should take into account cultural factors such as collectivism, which is indicative of the distinctive business-to-business marketing relationships observed in the Korean context.

Characterization of six new complete mitochondrial genomes of Chiasmodontidae (Scombriformes, Percomorpha) and considerations about the phylogenetic relationships of the family

  • Igor Henrique Rodrigues-Oliveira;Rubens Pasa;Fabiano Bezerra Menegidio;Karine Frehner Kavalco
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.10.1-10.6
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    • 2023
  • The fishes of the Chiasmodontidae family, known as swallower fishes, are species adapted to live in deep seas. Several studies have shown the proximity of this family to Tetragonuridae and Amarsipidae. However, the phylogenetic position of this clade related to other Pelagiaria groups remains uncertain even when phylogenomic studies are employed. Since the low number of published mitogenomes, our study aimed to assemble six new mitochondrial genomes of Chiasmodontidae from database libraries to expand the discussion regarding the phylogeny of this group within Scombriformes. As expected, the composition and organization of mitogenomes were stable among the analyzed species, although we detected repetitive sequences in the D-loop of species of the genus Kali not seen in Chiasmodon, Dysalotus, and Pseudoscopelus. Our phylogeny incorporating 51 mitogenomes from several families of Scombriformes, including nine chiasmodontids, recovered interfamilial relationships well established in previous studies, including a clade containing Chiasmodontidae, Amarsipidae, and Tetragonuridae. However, phylogenetic relationships between larger clades remain unclear, with disagreements between different phylogenomic studies. We argue that such inconsistencies are not only due to biases and limitations in the data but mainly to complex biological events in the adaptive irradiation of Scombriformes after the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event.