• Title/Summary/Keyword: u-확률

Search Result 158, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

A Study on the U.S Emergency Communications Operating System and Standard Operating Procedures Analysis (미국 재난통신 운영체계 및 표준운영절차 분석 연구)

  • Han, Cheol-Hee;Park, Su-Hyeong;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.78-86
    • /
    • 2017
  • Disasters in South Korea are taking on more diverse and intricate aspects than before, while being affected by the industrial development and deterioration of the cities. Therefore, it is urgently needed for success in disaster countermeasures to secure emergency communications operating system which would make it possible to share various information between the control tower and field personnel quickly and accurately. This study proposes a method of improving the national emergency communications operating system based on the Federal disaster management system, emergency communications system, and Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) employed in the US, which is the leading country in the field of disaster management. First, the organization of the emergency communications needs to be more systematized than in the past. The organization of the emergency communications of the central and local governments have to be administered according to their different roles and objectives. Furthermore, they must cooperate with each other based on interoperability. Second, emergency communications councils need to be established, composed of representatives related to disasters, and national and regional units need to be formed and operated separately. Third, the SOPs should not only cover both the operational and technical elements, but also assign the roles and responsibilities to the members of the disaster communications system. These improvements will assure the correct functioning of the disaster communications system in the field, which is expected to increase the probability of success in disaster countermeasures.

Study on the Feasibility of Space Weapon Development Utilizing Active Debris Removal Techniques and Understanding of Space Maneuver Warfare (우주 쓰레기 제거기술을 활용한 우주무기 개발 개연성 고찰 및 우주기동전(Space Maneuver Warfare)의 이해)

  • Seonghwan Choi
    • Journal of Space Technology and Applications
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.165-198
    • /
    • 2023
  • According to the studies recently published through advanced maui optical and space surveillance technologies (AMOS) Conference 2021, LEO conjunction assessment revolves around not on operating satellites but space debris such as rocket bodies and non-operational satellites, hence suggesting a solution through space traffic management. Against this backdrop, the issue of active debris removal (ADR) has emerged to the surface as an international challenge throughout the globe. In step with this, the United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution calling on nations to halt tests of direct-ascent anti-satellites, to which U.S. and twelve other nations included Republic of Korea were original signatories. ADR techniques are also actively being researched in the civil sector, and these commercial services, if successfully developed, could possibly be utilized for military use as well. As such, this paper will help readers' understanding for the current status of ADR techniques, space threat assessments, on-orbit rendezvous and proximity operations by looking at previous cases, reflecting on space-faring nations' ADR techniques and its development probability in relation to space weapons. As a conclusion, this study will propose the needs of developing space propulsion system by understanding Space Maneuver Warfare in preparation for the future space battlefield.

An Analysis on Climate Change and Military Response Strategies (기후변화와 군 대응전략에 관한 연구)

  • Park Chan-Young;Kim Chang-Jun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.171-179
    • /
    • 2023
  • Due to man-made climate change, global abnormal weather phenomena have occurred, increasing disasters. Major developed countries(military) are preparing for disasters caused by extreme weather appearances. However, currently, disaster prevention plans and facilities have been implemented based on the frequency and intensity method based on statistical data, it is not enough to prepare for disasters caused by frequent extreme weather based on probability basis. The U.S. and British forces have been the fastest to take research and policy approaches related to climate change and the threat of disaster change, and are considering both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The South Korean military regards the perception of disasters to be storm and flood damage, and there is a lack of discussion on extreme weather and disasters due to climate change. In this study, the process of establishing disaster management systems in developed countries(the United States and the United Kingdom) was examined, and the response policies of each country(military) were analyzed using literature analysis techniques. In order to maintain tight security, our military should establish a response policy focusing on sustainability and resilience, and the following three policy approaches are needed. First, it is necessary to analyze the future operational environment of the Korean Peninsula in preparation for the environment that will change due to climate change. Second, it is necessary to discuss climate change 'adaptation policy' for sustainability. Third, it is necessary to prepare for future disasters that may occur due to climate change.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.121-142
    • /
    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

A Study on LRFD Reliability Based Design Criteria of RC Flexural Members (R.C. 휨부재(部材)의 L.R.F.D. 신뢰성(信賴性) 설계기준(設計基準)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Cho, Hyo Nam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-32
    • /
    • 1981
  • Recent trends in design standards development in some European countries and U.S.A. have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability based design criteria such as LSD, LRFD, PBLSD, adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design process and placing it on a consistent reliability bases for various construction materials. A reliability based design criteria for RC flexural members are proposed in this study. Lind-Hasofer's invariant second-moment reliability theory is used in the derivation of an algorithmic reliability analysis method as well as an iterative determination of load and resistance factors. In addition, Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis and the derivation of design criteria. Uncertainty measures for flexural resistance and load effects are based on the Ellingwood's approach for the evaluation of uncertainties of loads and resistances. The implied relative safety levels of RC flexural members designed by the strength design provisions of the current standard code were evaluated using the second moment reliability analysis method proposed in this study. And then, resistance and load factors corresponding to the target reliability index(${\beta}=4$) which is considered to be appropriate level of reliability considering our practices are calculated by using the proposed methods. These reliability based factors were compared to those specified by our current ultimate strength design provisions. It was found that the reliability levels of flexural members designed by current code are not appropriate, and the code specified resistance and load factors were considerably different from the reliability based resistance and load factors proposed in this study.

  • PDF

Clinical Experience of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (복부 대동맥류 수술의 임상적 고찰)

  • Kwak, Young-Tae;Lim, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Sak;Yoo, Kyung-Jong;Chang, Byung-Chul;Kang, Meyun-Shick;Hong, Yoo-Sun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.261-266
    • /
    • 2003
  • Background: Surgery of abdominal aortic aneurysm revealed high operative mortality. We reviewed our 11-years' experiences of abdominal aortic aneurysm operation and wish to obtain information on the treatment. Material and Method: From Jan. 1990 to Dec. 2000, 48 patients were operated due to abdominal aortic aneurysm in Yonsei Cardiovascular Center Mean age was $62.8{\pm}12.7$ and there were 40 males and 8 females. Among 48 patients, nine patients had ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, and mean aneurysm diameter of non-ruptured cases was $8.8{\pm}2.4$cm. Result: There were 6 early deaths, and early mortality was 12.5%. Among 9 patients of preoperative aneurysm rupture, three patients died (33.3%), and among 39 patients of non-ruptured cases, 3 patients died (7.7%). Among preoperative variables, age (p<0.05), preoperative BUN level (p<0.05), and DM (p<0.05) were risk factors of early mortality. Among discharged 42 patients, 40 patients were followed up (f/u rate=95.2%) and mean follow up was $3.6{\pm}0.2$ years. During follow up periods, five patients died (late mortality=11.9%), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed $81.7{\pm}7.6$% survival rate at five and ten year. Linealized incidence of graft related event was 3.53% per patient-year. Conclusion: Surgical mortality of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was higher than non-ruptured cases; therefore, early resection of the aneurysm can decrease the surgical mortality.

A Proposal for Simplified Velocity Estimation for Practical Applicability (실무 적용성이 용이한 간편 유속 산정식 제안)

  • Tai-Ho Choo;Jong-Cheol Seo; Hyeon-Gu Choi;Kun-Hak Chun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-82
    • /
    • 2023
  • Data for measuring the flow rate of streams are used as important basic data for the development and maintenance of water resources, and many experts are conducting research to make more accurate measurements. Especially, in Korea, monsoon rains and heavy rains are concentrated in summer due to the nature of the climate, so floods occur frequently. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the flow rate most accurately during a flood to predict and prevent flooding. Thus, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) introduces 1, 2, 3 point method using a flow meter as one way to measure the average flow rate. However, it is difficult to calculate the average flow rate with the existing 1, 2, 3 point method alone.This paper proposes a new 1, 2, 3 point method formula, which is more accurate, utilizing one probabilistic entropy concept. This is considered to be a highly empirical study that can supplement the limitations of existing measurement methods. Data and Flume data were used in the number of holesman to demonstrate the utility of the proposed formula. As a result of the analysis, in the case of Flume Data, the existing USGS 1 point method compared to the measured value was 7.6% on average, 8.6% on the 2 point method, and 8.1% on the 3 point method. In the case of Coleman Data, the 1 point method showed an average error rate of 5%, the 2 point method 5.6% and the 3 point method 5.3%. On the other hand, the proposed formula using the concept of entropy reduced the error rate by about 60% compared to the existing method, with the Flume Data averaging 4.7% for the 1 point method, 5.7% for the 2 point method, and 5.2% for the 3 point method. In addition, Coleman Data showed an average error of 2.5% in the 1 point method, 3.1% in the 2 point method, and 2.8% in the 3 point method, reducing the error rate by about 50% compared to the existing method.This study can calculate the average flow rate more accurately than the existing 1, 2, 3 point method, which can be useful in many ways, including future river disaster management, design and administration.

Assessment Study on Educational Programs for the Gifted Students in Mathematics (영재학급에서의 수학영재프로그램 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hyun;Whang, Woo-Hyung
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.235-257
    • /
    • 2010
  • Contemporary belief is that the creative talented can create new knowledge and lead national development, so lots of countries in the world have interest in Gifted Education. As we well know, U.S.A., England, Russia, Germany, Australia, Israel, and Singapore enforce related laws in Gifted Education to offer Gifted Classes, and our government has also created an Improvement Act in January, 2000 and Enforcement Ordinance for Gifted Improvement Act was also announced in April, 2002. Through this initiation Gifted Education can be possible. Enforcement Ordinance was revised in October, 2008. The main purpose of this revision was to expand the opportunity of Gifted Education to students with special education needs. One of these programs is, the opportunity of Gifted Education to be offered to lots of the Gifted by establishing Special Classes at each school. Also, it is important that the quality of Gifted Education should be combined with the expansion of opportunity for the Gifted. Social opinion is that it will be reckless only to expand the opportunity for the Gifted Education, therefore, assessment on the Teaching and Learning Program for the Gifted is indispensible. In this study, 3 middle schools were selected for the Teaching and Learning Programs in mathematics. Each 1st Grade was reviewed and analyzed through comparative tables between Regular and Gifted Education Programs. Also reviewed was the content of what should be taught, and programs were evaluated on assessment standards which were revised and modified from the present teaching and learning programs in mathematics. Below, research issues were set up to assess the formation of content areas and appropriateness for Teaching and Learning Programs for the Gifted in mathematics. A. Is the formation of special class content areas complying with the 7th national curriculum? 1. Which content areas of regular curriculum is applied in this program? 2. Among Enrichment and Selection in Curriculum for the Gifted, which one is applied in this programs? 3. Are the content areas organized and performed properly? B. Are the Programs for the Gifted appropriate? 1. Are the Educational goals of the Programs aligned with that of Gifted Education in mathematics? 2. Does the content of each program reflect characteristics of mathematical Gifted students and express their mathematical talents? 3. Are Teaching and Learning models and methods diverse enough to express their talents? 4. Can the assessment on each program reflect the Learning goals and content, and enhance Gifted students' thinking ability? The conclusions are as follows: First, the best contents to be taught to the mathematical Gifted were found to be the Numeration, Arithmetic, Geometry, Measurement, Probability, Statistics, Letter and Expression. Also, Enrichment area and Selection area within the curriculum for the Gifted were offered in many ways so that their Giftedness could be fully enhanced. Second, the educational goals of Teaching and Learning Programs for the mathematical Gifted students were in accordance with the directions of mathematical education and philosophy. Also, it reflected that their research ability was successful in reaching the educational goals of improving creativity, thinking ability, problem-solving ability, all of which are required in the set curriculum. In order to accomplish the goals, visualization, symbolization, phasing and exploring strategies were used effectively. Many different of lecturing types, cooperative learning, discovery learning were applied to accomplish the Teaching and Learning model goals. For Teaching and Learning activities, various strategies and models were used to express the students' talents. These activities included experiments, exploration, application, estimation, guess, discussion (conjecture and refutation) reconsideration and so on. There were no mention to the students about evaluation and paper exams. While the program activities were being performed, educational goals and assessment methods were reflected, that is, products, performance assessment, and portfolio were mainly used rather than just paper assessment.