• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.294-304
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• 2009

A statistical prediction model for the typhoon intensity and track in the Northwestern Pacific area was developed based on the artificial neural network scheme. Specifically, this model is focused on the 5-day prediction after tropical cyclone genesis, and used the CLIPPER parameters (genesis location, intensity, and date), dynamic parameters (vertical wind shear between 200 and 850hPa, upper-level divergence, and lower-level relative vorticity), and thermal parameters (upper-level equivalent potential temperature, ENSO, 200-hPa air temperature, mid-level relative humidity). Based on the characteristics of predictors, a total of seven artificial neural network models were developed. The best one was the case that combined the CLIPPER parameters and thermal parameters. This case showed higher predictability during the summer season than the winter season, and the forecast error also depended on the location: The intensity error rate increases when the genesis location moves to Southeastern area and the track error increases when it moves to Northwestern area. Comparing the predictability with the multiple linear regression model, the artificial neural network model showed better performance.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.148-161
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• 2012

The intensive observation (ProbeX-2010) with 6-hour launches of radiosonde was performed over Seoul metropolitan area (Dongducheon, Incheon Airport, and Yangpyeong) from 13 Aug. to 3 Sep. 2010. Five typical heavy rainfall patterns occurred consecutively which are squall line, stationary front, remote tropical cyclone (TC), tropical depression, and typhoon patterns. On 15 Aug. 03 KST, when squall line developed over Seoul metropolitan area, dry mid-level air was drawn over warm and moist low-level air, inducing strong convective instability. From 23 to 26 Aug and from 27 to 29 Aug. Rainfall event occurred influenced by stationary front and remote TC, respectively. During the stationary frontal rainy period, thermal instability was dominant in the beginning stage, but dynamic instability became strong in the latter stage. Especially, heavy rainfall occurred on 25 Aug. when southerly low level jet formed over the Yellow Sea. During the rainy period by the remote TC, thermal and dynamic instability sustained together. Especially, heavy rainfall event occurred on 29 Aug. when the tropical air with high equivalent potential temperature (>345 K) occupied the deep low-middle level. On 27 Aug. and 2 Sep. tropical depression and typhoon Kompasu affected Seoul metropolitan area, respectively. During these events, dynamic instability was very strong.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.5_3
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• pp.1037-1051
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• 2020

The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.126-138
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• 1996

The characteristics of rapid development of the low pressure system over the East Sea from 06 to 08 Nov., 1995 has been analyzed in detail by the synoptic numerical products and satellite observations. The Low system was initially triggered the development of the baroclinic leaf cloud over the border of the northern part of Korea and China and moved eastward and then developed explosively com-ma or lambda type cloud system over the East Sea. To forecast well the general development and movement of the coastal winter cyclone over the East Sea popularly in a numerical simulation by several scientists, the large baroclinicity, continuous support of water vapor, and sequential cold outbreak over the warm sea surface have been more commonly concerned about. The cyclone which the central surface pressure was dropped 40hPa within 24 hours has often accompanied strong wind and heavy snow- or rain-fall in the winter season. In all successive observations with 12-hourly satellite imagery and analyzed meteorological variables in this period, the centers of the sea-level pressure and 500hPa geopotential height associated with this cyclone were typically illustrated by moving farther eastward using GMS combined enhanced IR images. The maxi-mum wind sustained by this system with the intensity and central pressure of tropical storm was about 60 knots with the center pressure drop of 44hPa/day similar to the North American cyclonic bomb and Atlantic storm.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.12
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• pp.1657-1671
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• 2015

In this study, the wind direction and the wind speed of the nearest temperature observations point of the National Weather Service was analyzed in order to investigate the rapid rise and drop of water temperature in the East Coast appeared after passing of the 2015 typhoon No. 9 and 11. Then the figures were simulated and analyzed using the WRF(weather research and forecast) model to investigate in more detailed path of the typhoon as well as the changes in the wind field. The results were as follows. A sudden drop of water temperature was confirmed due to upwelling on the East coast when ninth typhoon Chanhom is transformed from tropical cyclones into extra tropical cyclone, then kept moving eastwards from Pyongyang forming a strong southerly wind after 13th and this phenomenon lasted for two days. The high SST(sea surface temperature) is confirmed due to a strong northerly wind by 11th typhoon Nangka. This strong wind directly affected the east coast for three days causing the Ekman effect which transported high offshore surface waters to the coast. The downwelling occurred causing an accumulation of high temperature surface water. As a results, the SST of 15m and 25m rose to that of 5m.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.315-329
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• 2015

We investigated the characteristics of meteorological conditions related to the strong downslope wind over the leeward side of the Taebaek Mountains during the period 2005~2010. The days showing the strong wind exceeding $14ms^{-1}$ in Gangwon province were selected as study cases. A total of 15 days of strong wind were observed at Sokcho, Gangneung, Donghae, and Taebaek located over the Yeongdong region. Seven cases related to tropical cyclone (3 cases) and heavy snowfall (2 cases) and heavy rainfall (2 cases) over the Yeongdong region were excluded. To investigate the characteristics of the remaining 8 cases, we used synoptic weather chart, Sokcho radiosonde, Gangneung wind profiler and numerical model. The cases showed no precipitation (or ${\leq}1mm\;day^{-1}$). From the surface and upper level weather chart, we found the pressure distribution of southern high and northern low pattern over the Korean peninsula and warm ridge over the Yeongdong region. Inversion layer (or stable layer) and warm ridge with strong wind were located in about 1~3 km (925~700 hPa) over mountains. The Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) indicated that warm core and temperature ridge with horizontal temperature gradient were $0.10{\sim}0.23^{\circ}C\;km^{-1}$ which were located on 850 hPa pressure level above mountaintop. These results were summarized as a forecasting guidance of downslope windstorm in the Yeongdong region.