• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• 제18권4호
• /
• pp.41-53
• /
• 2011

Trust prediction between users in social network based on the trust propagation assumes properties of transitivity and composability of trust propagation. But it has been hard to find studies which test on how those properties have been operated in real social network. This study aims to validate if the longer the distance of trust paths and the less the numbers of trust paths, the higher prediction error occurs using two real social network data set. As a result, the longer the distance of trust paths, we can find higher prediction error when predicting level of trust between source and target users. But we can not find decreasing trend of prediction error though the possible number of trust paths between source and target users increases.

• 설비공학논문집
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.262-270
• /
• 2001

This paper deals with a prediction method for the condensation of ternary refrigerant mixture inside a horizontal smooth tube. Based on some reliable assumptions, the governing equations for the local heat and mass transfer characteristics are derived, and the prediction for the condensation of ternary zeotropic refrigerant mixtures composed of HFC32/HFC125/HFC134a, including R407C, is carried out. The local values of vapor quality, thermodynamic states at bulk vapor, vapor-liquid interface and bulk liquid, mass flux etc. are obtained for a constant wall temperature and a constant wall heat flux conditions, and the effects of the composition of HFC32/HFC125/HFC134a on heat transfer characteristics are examined. The prediction result is also compared with experimental data for condensation of ternary refrigerant mixtures. The predicted wall temperature distribution has a similar trend with experimental data but the predicted local heat transfer coefficients are 20-30% higher than the experimental data.

• 한국병원경영학회지
• /
• 제25권2호
• /
• pp.69-75
• /
• 2020

Purposes: This study aims to investigate the number of cataract surgeries and predict future trends using 13-year data. Methodology: Trends investigation and comparison of prediction methods was conducted to determine better prediction model using Major Surgery Statistics from Korean Statistical Information Service in 2006-2018. ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) was selected and prediction was conducted using R program. Findings: As a results, the number of surgeries will continue to increase. The trends was predicted to increase during January-April, and it declined over time and was the lowest in August. Pratical Implications: Therefore, it is necessary that management will be needed by continuously investigating and predicting the demand and trend for surgery to prepare an alternative to the increase.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 1998년도 하계학술대회 논문집 G
• /
• pp.2299-2301
• /
• 1998

In this paper, a modified RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network structure is suggested for the prediction of time series with non-linear, non-stationary characteristics. Conventional RBF neural network predicting time series by using past outputs is for sensing the trajectory of the time series and for reacting when there exists strong relation between input and hidden neuron's RBF center. But this response is highly sensitive to level and trend of time serieses. In order to overcome such dependencies, hidden neurons are modified to react to the increments of input variable and multiplied by increments(or decrements) of out puts for prediction. When the suggested structure is applied to prediction of Lorenz equation, and Rossler equation, improved performances are obtainable.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
• /
• 제21권9호
• /
• pp.103-108
• /
• 2021

The emergence of new technologies and their implementation by different manufacturers of electronic devices are experiencing an ascending trend. Most of the time, these protocols are expected to reach a certain degree of maturity, and electronic equipment manufacturers use simplified communication standards and interfaces that have already reached maturity in terms of their development such as ModBUS, KNX or CAN. This paper proposes an IoT solution of the Smart Home type based on an Analysis and Prediction System. A data acquisition component was implemented and there was defined an algorithm for the analysis and prediction of actions based on the values collected from the data update component and the data logger records.

• 정보처리학회논문지:컴퓨터 및 통신 시스템
• /
• 제4권2호
• /
• pp.47-56
• /
• 2015

에너지 절감형 서버 클러스터 환경에서는 서버 전원 모드가 부하상황에 따라 제어된다. 다시 말하면 현재 부하를 처리하는 데 필요한 대수의 서버들만 ON하고 나머지 서버들은 OFF한다. 이 알고리즘은 정상적인 상황에서는 잘 동작하지만 부하가 급증 또는 급감하는 비정상적인 상황에서는 QoS를 보장할 수 없다. 왜냐하면 서버가 OFF에서 ON으로 바뀌는 데 필요한 지연시간 때문에 ON 서버 대수를 당장 증가시킬 수 없기 때문이다. 본 논문에서는 정상적인 상황뿐만 아니라 비정상적인 상황에서도 QoS를 향상시키는 새로운 소비 전력 예측 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안된 예측 알고리즘은 기존 시계열 분석에 기반한 예측과 추세를 반영한 예측 조정의 두 부분으로 구성된다. 15대의 서버 클러스터를 이용하여 실험이 수행되었고, 4가지 유형의 기존의 시계열 예측 모델과 본 논문에서 제안하는 4가지 유형의 수정된 모델에 대해 성능을 비교하였다. 실험 결과 4가지 유형 중 추세조정 지수평활법(ESTA)과 본 논문에서 제안된 ESTA(MESTA)가 표준화된 QoS 및 단위전력당 좋은 응답수 측면에서 가장 우수한 성능을 보였으며, 또한 본 논문에서 제안한 MESTA 알고리즘이 기존의 ESTA 알고리즘에 비해 가상 부하패턴과 실제 부하패턴에 대해 QoS가 7.5%, 3.3% 각각 향상됨을 보여주었다.

• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
• /
• 제4권3호
• /
• pp.235-245
• /
• 2002

본 연구는 터널 굴착시 막장 전방의 지반변화를 사전에 예측할 수 있는 방법을 제시하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 막장 전방에 파쇄대가 방향성을 가지고 존재 할 때 터널의 3차원 해석을 통하여 터널의 내공변위의 변화 경향을 살펴보았으며, 이를 통하여 막장전방의 지반 변화를 파악하고자 하였다. 이러한 터널의 내공변위의 변화는 경향선과 영향선을 이용하여 표현할 수 있으며 이를 이용하여 막장 전방에 존재하는 파쇄대를 예측하고자 하였다. 수치해석 결과에 의하면 막장전방에 파쇄대가 존재 할 경우 막장이 파쇄대에 접근할 수록 급격한 경향선의 변화가 나타난다. 또한 파쇄대가 방향성을 가지고 있는 경우에는 경향선의 급격한 변화 외에 측벽부의 변위 경향이 비대칭을 이루므로 인하여 평사투영도 상에 나타난 변위가 비대칭을 형성하는 것으로 파악되었다. 이러한 수치해석결과에 의한 내공변위 해석결과를 현장 계측 자료와 비교하였으며, 현장에서 계측한 오차를 줄일 수 있도록 계측데이터가 정규분포 한다고 가정하여 현장데이터를 분석한 결과 막장전방의 파쇄대의 존재 유무를 파악할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 해양환경안전학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 해양환경안전학회 2003년도 추계학술발표회
• /
• pp.219-225
• /
• 2003

The present study intends to assess the long-term steric sea-level change and its prediction, and potential impacts to the sea-level rise due to the 21st global warming in the coastal zone of the Korea in which much socioeconomic activities have been occurred. The analysis of the 23 tide-gauge data near Korea reveals the overall mean sea-level trend of 2.31 mm/yr.In the satellite altimeter data (Topex/Poseidon and ERS), the sea-level trend in the East Sea is 4.6mm/yr. Both are larger than those of the global average value. However, it is quite questionable that the sea-level trends with the tide-gauge data on the neighboring seas of Korea relate to global warming because of the relatively short observation period and large spatial variability. It is also not clear whether the high trend of altimeter data in the East Sea is related to the acceleration of sea level rise in the Sea, short response time of the Sea, natural variability such as decadal variability, short duration of the altimeter. The coastal zone of Korea appears to be quite vulnerable to the 21st sea level rise such that for the I-m sea level rise with high tide and storm surge, the inundation area is 2,643 km2, which is about $1.2\%$ of total area and the population in the risk areas of inundation is 1.255 million, about $2.6\%$ of total population. The coastal zone west of Korea is appeared to be the most vulnerable area compared to the east and south. In the west of the Korea, the North Korea appears to be more vulnerable than South Korea. In order to cope with the future possible impact of sea-level rise to the coastal zone of Korea effectively, it is essential to improve scientific information in the sea-level rise trend, regional prediction, and vulnerability assessment near Korean coast.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제15권6호
• /
• pp.2785-2791
• /
• 2014

Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권14호
• /
• pp.5829-5834
• /
• 2015

Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).