• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제37권6호
• /
• pp.567-574
• /
• 2013

Although Korea coastal area has the increasing potential marine accident due to frequent ship's encounter, increased vessel traffic and large vessel, there is no specific model to evaluate the navigating vessel's risk considering the domestic traffic situation. The maritime transport environmental assessment is necessary due to the amended maritime traffic law. However, marine safety diagnosis is now carried out by foreign model. In this paper, therefore, we suggest a domestic traffic model reflecting the characteristics of korea coastal area and navigator's risk as we named PARK(Potential Assessment of Risk) model. We can evaluate the subjective risk by establishing the model and model output into maritime risk exposure system. To evaluate this model's effectiveness, we used ship handling simulation and applied, analyzed collision accident which occurred in korea coastal area. And also, we applied integrated to an ECDIS program for monitoring traffic risk of vessels with real time based AIS data and apply to evaluate traffic risk in busan harbor waterway. As a result, we could evaluate busan harbor waterway risk effectively.

• 해양환경안전학회지
• /
• 제19권3호
• /
• pp.257-263
• /
• 2013

The classification of risk factors and the identification of risk acceptance criteria are core works to assess risk levels with high enough confidential level in the field of marine traffic environment. In the previous study work, the twenty kinds of risk factors and its assessment criteria for the domestic marine traffic environment were proposed. In this paper, with these previous studying results, the relative importance of the risk factors were analyzed by questionnaire survey of marine traffic experts using the analytic hierarchy process. The analysis results showed that the relative importance of the visibility restriction is the highest among the twenty kinds of risk factors, and the relative importance of the traffic condition is the highest among the five kinds of risk categories. As results from analysis, it is expected that the approaching method on the relative importance is to be one of basic techniques for the development of risk assessment models in the domestic marine traffic environment.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제15권13호
• /
• pp.5229-5232
• /
• 2014

Background: While many studies have concluded that local traffic density is positively associated with childhood leukemia, the results are inconsistent. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between traffic density and the risk of childhood leukemia. Methods: A systematic literature review was carried out using PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from January 1979 to December 2013. We selected and assessed journal articles evaluating the relationship between local traffic density and the risk of leukemia in children. The analysis was carried out using STATA version 12.0. Results: A total of 11 articles, including 12 estimates of effect, were included in our meta-analysis. The summary effect size from the random-effects model, expressed as an odds ratio, was 1.03 (95% CI: 0.98-1.09, p=0.002). No significant association between traffic density and the risk of childhood leukemia was found. Similar conclusions were found on subgroup analysis. Conclusions: The results of our meta-analysis suggested no association between traffic density and the risk of childhood leukemia. This implies that living in close proximity to roads with heavy traffic may not increase the risk of childhood leukemia. However, further high-quality prospective trials are needed to support these results.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제31권5호
• /
• pp.149-157
• /
• 2016

This paper presents the traffic speed limit of heavy vehicles at each wind velocity region, which is based on their accident risk analysis under cross-wind. The variables for the accident risk analysis are overall height, overall length, intake weight, and friction coefficient of the road surface. It was confirmed from analysis results that the risk of overturning increased with higher overall height and length, and the risk of sliding decreased with higher intake weight. The risk of sliding was largest at the friction coefficient of 0.1, and the risk of overturning was lagest at friction coefficient more than 0.25. Finally, traffic speed limit was proposed by using the accident risk analysis.

• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제34권7호
• /
• pp.517-523
• /
• 2010

There are enormous challenges in the Istanbul Strait- one of the most important, congested and narrow waterways in the world - from the view point of risk determination and risk mitigation for the local traffic. Previously several traffic parameters such as; traffic volume for local vessels, traffic flow and potential encounters of local traffic, in addition to the possibility of collision, were investigated in order to determine the degree of dangers in the southern entrance of the Istanbul Strait. Furthermore, risky zones were also determined in this waterway. On the basis of the results of those, a group of expert was surveyed. These experts were pilots, Vessel Traffic Services Operators (VTS-O), Local Traffic Vessel Captains and Master Mariners who had several experience of navigation through the Istanbul Strait. In order to assess experts perceptions of danger and to propose further studies based on this survey. The questionnaire was analyzed by using SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) program version 13.0. Finally, some differences and/or shares on risk perceptions of expert in the Istanbul Strait are considered.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
• /
• 제23권3호
• /
• pp.220-225
• /
• 2013

항구 등 선박교통이 밀집된 구역에서 선박의 사고는 빈번하게 발생한다. 해양사고는 한번 발생하면 대형사고로 이어질 확률이 높으므로, 철저한 해상교통관리가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 실 해역의 통계적인 해상교통정보와 실시간 선박 통항분포를 바탕으로 항로 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 시뮬레이터를 개발하고자 한다. 항로 위험도 평가 시뮬레이터는 항로정보 입력부, 통항분포 분석부, 알고리즘 실행부로 구성하였다. 또한 완도해역의 해상교통정보를 시뮬레이터에 적용하여 항로의 정량적인 항로 위험도를 산출하고자 한다.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.21-40
• /
• 2003

본 논문에서는 GIS(Geographic Information System:지리정보체계)를 기반으로 도로의 선형조건을 이용하여 고속도로의 사고위험도를 파악하고 평가할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다. 고속도로 평면곡선부에 대한 다양한 사고분석을 통해 도로의 선형조건이 교통사고에 미치는 영향을 규명하였으며. 이 결과를 토대로 사고예측모형을 구축하였다. 특히 사고영향인자를 규명하는 데에 있어서는 도로선형요소의 상호작용과 선형의 연속성을 반영함으로써 보다 현실적이고 객관적인 예측모형을 구축할 수 있도록 하였다. 아울러 사고예측모형의 추정결과와 사고자료를 토대로 고속도로의 선형조건에 따른 종합적인 사고위험도지수를 설정하고 이에 대한 평가기준을 마련하였다. 한편 주어진 도로선형조건에 따라 사고발생가능성을 예측하고 사고위험도를 평가하는 일련의 과정을 GIS와 결합하여 프로그래밍 함으로써 해당구간의 사고율 사고위험도지수, 위험도평가등급이 자동적으로 결정될 수 있게 하였을 뿐만 아니라 관련정보 및 평가결과를 시각적으로 제공하여 이용자가 보다 쉽게 이해하고 편리하게 사용할 수 있는 사고위험도 평가 프로그램을 개발하였다. 개발된 사고예측모형과 이를 토대로 설정한 사고위험도지수 및 위험도평가등급은 안전하고 비용-효율적인 도로설계에 도움을 줄 수 있을 뿐 만 아니라, 사고취약구간에 대한 대책 마련에도 이바지 할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제40권5호
• /
• pp.257-263
• /
• 2016

Mombasa is the principle port of Kenya, serving inland countries in Eastern and central Africa. Mombasa port has undergone a massive infrastructure upgrade and dredging works with an expectation that more vessels and large post Panamax ships will be able to enter Mombasa port. Therefore, it is vital to carry out a marine traffic risk assessment in order to quantify the degree of navigation safety needed in the Mombasa approach channel and also to evaluate the navigation risk imposed on transit traffic by local ferry traffic. In this paper, a marine traffic risk assessment is carried out using the IWRAP mk2, Environmental Stress (ES) model, and the PARK model. Risk assessment results show that Likoni area has an unacceptable stress/risk ranking at 20.7% by the ES model and 38.89% by the PARK model. The IWRAP mk2 model shows that the crossing area has the highest risk of crossing collision and the area at the entrance to the inner channel has a high risk of grounding. The conclusions derived from this study will provide the basis for proposing the most effective countermeasure to improve navigation safety in the Mombasa approach channel.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국항해항만학회 2016년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.81-84
• /
• 2016

Mombasa is the principle port of Kenya, serving hinter countries in Eastern and central Africa. Mombasa port has undergone a massive infrastructure upgrade and dredging works with an expectation that more vessels and large post Panamax ships will be able to call at Mombasa port. Therefore, it is vital to carry out a marine traffic risk assessment so as to quantify the degree of navigation safety on Mombasa approach channel and also to evaluate navigation risk imposed on transit traffic by local ferry traffic. In this paper marine traffic risk assessment is carried out using IWRAP mk2, Environmental Stress model, and PARK model. Risk assessment results show that Likoni area has unacceptable stress/ risk ranking at 20.7% on ES model and 38.89% by PARK model. IWRAP mk2 model shows that crossing area has the highest risk of crossing collision and the area at the entrance to inner channel has a high risk of grounding. The conclusions derived from this study will provide the basis for proposing the most effective countermeasure so as to improve navigation safety in Mombasa approach channel.

• 해양환경안전학회지
• /
• 제18권5호
• /
• pp.431-438
• /
• 2012

해상교통환경의 위험도를 평가하기 위한 기술로는 대표적으로 FSA, PAWSA, IWRAP 등이 있으며, 이러한 기술의 개발을 위해서는 해상교통환경에 적합한 위험요소를 선정하고 이에 대한 평가기준이 마련되어야 한다. 기존 기술에서 위험도는 사고의 출현빈도와 이로 인한 영향의 곱으로 정의되어 이에 따라 사고의 출현빈도 및 영향에 해당되는 위험요소들이 각각 구분되어 선정되고 있었다. 그러나, 본 연구는 각 위험요소에 요소별 출현빈도와 영향을 포함하여 이들의 합으로 위험도를 정의함으로써 기존 기술에서 사고의 영향에 해당되었던 위험요소들을 제외하는 한편, 위험요소 분류체계에 관한 기존 연구의 사례 검토를 통하여 위험도를 구성하는 위험요소를 20가지로 추출한 후 유사한 성격에 따라 5가지 카테고리로 분류하였다. 또한, 선정된 각 위험요소에 대하여 관련 통계자료 등을 이용 실용적으로 용이하게 평가할 수 있는 기준을 제시하여, 향후 국내 해상교통환경에 적합한 위험도 평가모델의 개발을 위한 기초를 마련하였다.