• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.95-100
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• 2018

The study investigates the factors that affect Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade flows with its main trading partners and attempts to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Using panel data, the gravity model is applied to estimate Kyrgyzstan's trade from 2000 to 2016 for its 35 main trading partners. The coefficients derived from the gravity-model estimation are then used to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Results proved to be successful and explained 63% of the fluctuations in Kyrgyzstan's trade. According to the results, Kyrgyzstan's and its partners' GDP have a positive effect on trade, while distance and partners' population prove to have a negative effect. Predicted trade potential reveals that neighboring countries (China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) and Russia still have a significant trade potential. Kyrgyzstan, being a less developed economy, even by Central Asia standards, can only achieve its goals of reducing poverty and becoming more developed by increasing its overall trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, it is essential to study the main determinants of Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade. In this way, we can help policy makers formulate policies to expand Kyrgyzstan's trade. This study is the first attempt to apply to the gravity model to Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to predict trade potential.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.39-60
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• 2021

Despite the fast growth and rising importance of digital trade, there still exists no multilateral agreement governing digital trade. Significant differences in policy directions regarding key digital trade issues among the U.S., EU and China are the main stumbling blocks for reaching agreement on the multilateral front. To overcome this deficiency in digital trade rules, there has been active movement among mainly countries in the Asia-Pacific region for rule-making on digital trade. Starting with the CPTPP chapter on E-Commerce in 2018, there has been a series of digital trade rules agreed in bilateral or plurilateral formats, such as the USMCA, USJDTA, DEPA, DEA and RCEP. Korea is currently only member of RCEP, which contains an e-commerce chapter with lower levels of commitment as compared to other digital trade agreements. This paper provides a broad analysis of the recently concluded digital trade agreements, comparing the different coverage of rules, levels of commitment, and rules templates. The analysis aims to provide implications for the desirable direction of rule-making on digital trade and Korea's digital trade strategy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.243-260
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• 2013

The dominant academic literature about trade agreements maintains that they are only about national terms-of-trade manipulation and not at all about purely political concerns. Non-academic economists, commentators, and diplomats by contrast think that trade agreements are all about political concerns. There are two substantive and important distinctions between the two views. i Practitioners maintain that policymakers care virtually not at all about the terms of trade or about trade-tax revenue. ii Practitioners, unlike academics, maintain that trade-agreement negotiations themselves change the underlying political economy. Observation of actual trade policy measures, though not conclusive, suggests that the practitioners are right and that the academics are wrong.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.427-465
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• 2018

East Asia, for long the epitome of successful engagement in trade, faces serious challenges: technological change that may threaten the very model of labor intensive industrialization and a backlash against globalization that may reduce access to important markets. The analysis in this article suggests that how East Asia copes with these global challenges will depend on how it addresses three more proximate national and regional challenges. The first is the emergence of China as a global trade giant, which is fundamentally altering the trading patterns and opportunities of its neighbors. The second is the asymmetric implementation of national reform - in goods trade and investment versus services - which is affecting the evolution of comparative advantage and productivity in each country. The third is the divergence between the relatively shallow and fragmented agreements that regulate the region's trade and investment and the growing importance of regional and global value chains as crucial drivers of productivity growth.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.177-215
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• 2018

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.237-252
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• 2020

This paper characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in the environment of Melitz (2003) with firm productivity heterogeneity. In particular, without making parametric assumptions on firm productivity distribution, this paper derives the optimal degree of reciprocal tariff reductions that maximize the world welfare. A reciprocal import subsidy raises the industry productivity, lowering aggregate price; a reciprocal import tariff helps correct the markup distortion, increasing nominal income. With all the conflicting effects of import tariffs on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reduction is shown to be free trade.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.333-359
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• 2013

Two mega-regional negotiations are changing the landscape of Asia Pacific trade policy: an Asian track centered on ASEAN (the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP), and a Trans-Pacific track centered on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) among 12 economies, including the United States, which Korea is expected to join. Modeling results suggest that both would generate substantial benefits for Korea and the global economy. From Korea's viewpoint, the agreements would establish new FTAs with China, Japan and smaller economies, improve the utilization of FTAs by permitting the regional cumulation of inputs, and help to upgrade some Korean FTAs to more rigorous standards. By participating in these agreements, Korea could also help to guide them toward inclusive, high-quality regional outcomes. As one of the region's most open and agile economies, Korea has a large stake in regional integration and would be well advised to pursue both tracks.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.191-202
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• 2019

Despite innovative efforts to accommodate changes in the payment environment, the new types of settlement risks that are emerging require preemptive and proactive responses. Therefore, Korea should complement and develop large-value funds payment system operation and risk management policies by introducing international standards and linking with advanced financial institutions. This study examines the major issues such as the development process and characteristics of the large-value funds payment system of the two countries, the operation policy of the central bank, and the risk management policy by comparing the US Fedwire with the Korea Bok-Wire+. In addition, policy implications are suggested for efficient operation and development of Bok-Wire+.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2006.11b
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• pp.371-396
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• 2006

To see the implication of trade policy in endogeneous growth model, we introduce trade protection that takes the form of an import tariff and represents one plus the rate of protection provided to industry sector. We showed that considering goodness of fit of regression model, we can see that the empirical evidence is strongly in favor of the character of trade policies as the instrument spurring economic growth. As for import tariff, we see that 1% increase in the rate of tariff that protect domestic market causes the rate of growth to increase by 0.87%. An import tariff to final product significantly spurs product development and faster growth come as a result. But, we should note that the effects of trade policy are muted by the induced changes in the output of intermediates in an economy that is relatively unproductive in the research lab.

• Journal of Public Diplomacy
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.28-42
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• 2022

The aim of this article is to rethink the role of international trade as a public diplomacy tool by considering the uncertainties that stem from political tensions. The main contribution made in this article is theoretical rather than statistical. However, we analyze trade and public opinion data to study the relationship between both factors. Using Latinobarometer, a cross-sectional survey that collects public opinion data from Latin America, this article analyses public opinion toward the United States and China. One of the main takeaways from this study is that, despite its potential to showcase political stability, public diplomacy undervalues 'unintended consequences' of international trade relations. This article takes up international trade as an unintended, but arguably effective, resource to be developed for the practice of public diplomacy. Findings presented in this article do not claim causation between trade and opinion, something that can be explored by further research, but rather introduce new questions for further research on the public diplomacy of trade relations.