• Title/Summary/Keyword: time-series prediction

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Analysis on Spatial Variability of Rainfall in a Small Area (소규모 지역에 대한 강우의 공간변화도 분석)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Kim, Won;Kim, Dong-Gu;Lee, Chanjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.11
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    • pp.905-913
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    • 2015
  • This study deployed six rain gauges in a small area for a dense network observing rainfall and analyzed the spatial variability of rainfall. They were arranged in a $2{\times}3$ rectangular grid with equal space of 60 m. The rainfall measurements from five gauges were analyzed during the period of 50 days because one was seriously affected by alien substance. The maximum difference in cumulative rainfall from them is approximately 38.5 mm. The correlation coefficients from hourly rainfall time series differ from each other while daily rainfall coincide. The coefficient of variation in hourly rainfall varies up to 224% and that in daily rainfall up to 91%. The results from uncertainty analysis show that with only four rain gauges areal mean rainfall cannot be estimated over 95% accuracy. For reliable flood prediction and effective water management it is required to develop a new technique for the estimation of areal rainfall.

Prediction of Salinity Changes for Seawater Inflow and Rainfall Runoff in Yongwon Channel (해수유입과 강우유출 영향에 따른 용원수로의 염분도 변화 예측)

  • Choo, Min Ho;Kim, Young Do;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2014
  • In this study, EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to simulate the salinity distribution for sea water inflow and rainfall runoff. The flowrate was given to the boundary conditions, which can be calculated by areal-specific flowrate method from the measured flowrate of the representative outfall. The boundary condition of the water elevation can be obtained from the hourly tidal elevation. The flowrate from the outfall can be calculated using the condition of the 245 mm raifall. The simulation results showed that at Sites 1~2 and the Mangsan island (Site 4) the salinity becomes 0 ppt after the rainfall. However, the salinity is 30 ppt when there is no rainfall. Time series of the salinity changes were compared with the measured data from January 1 to December 31, 2010 at the four sites (Site 2~5) of Yongwon channel. Lower salinities are shown at the inner sites of Yongwon channel (Site 1~4) and the sites of Songjeong river (Site 7~8). The intensive investigation near the Mangsan island showed that the changes of salinity were 21.9~28.8 ppt after the rainfall of 17 mm and those of the salinity were 2.33~8.05 ppt after the cumulative rainfall of 160.5 mm. This means that the sea water circulation is blocked in Yongwon channel, and the salinity becomes lower rapidly after the heavy rain.

Bio-Sensing Convergence Big Data Computing Architecture (바이오센싱 융합 빅데이터 컴퓨팅 아키텍처)

  • Ko, Myung-Sook;Lee, Tae-Gyu
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2018
  • Biometric information computing is greatly influencing both a computing system and Big-data system based on the bio-information system that combines bio-signal sensors and bio-information processing. Unlike conventional data formats such as text, images, and videos, biometric information is represented by text-based values that give meaning to a bio-signal, important event moments are stored in an image format, a complex data format such as a video format is constructed for data prediction and analysis through time series analysis. Such a complex data structure may be separately requested by text, image, video format depending on characteristics of data required by individual biometric information application services, or may request complex data formats simultaneously depending on the situation. Since previous bio-information processing computing systems depend on conventional computing component, computing structure, and data processing method, they have many inefficiencies in terms of data processing performance, transmission capability, storage efficiency, and system safety. In this study, we propose an improved biosensing converged big data computing architecture to build a platform that supports biometric information processing computing effectively. The proposed architecture effectively supports data storage and transmission efficiency, computing performance, and system stability. And, it can lay the foundation for system implementation and biometric information service optimization optimized for future biometric information computing.

Numerical Modeling for the Detection of Debris Flow Using Detailed Soil Map and GIS (정밀토양도와 GIS를 이용한 토석류 발생지역 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Pan Gu;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2017
  • This study presents the prediction methodology of debris flow occurrence areas using the SINMAP model. Former studies used a single calibration region applying some of the soil test results to predict debris flow occurrence in SINMAP model, which couldn't subdivide the soil properties for the target areas. On the other hands, a multi-calibration region using a detailed soil map and soil strength parameters (c, ${\phi}$) for each soil series to make up for limitation of former studies is proposed. In this process, soils with soil erodibility factor (K) are classified into three types: 1) gravel and gravelly soil. 2) sand and sandy soil, and 3) silt and clay. In addition, T/R estimation method using mean elevation of target area instead of T/R method using actual occurrence time is suggested in this study. The suggested method is applied to Seobyeok-1 ri area, Bonghwa-gun where debris flow occurred. As a result of comparison between two T/R estimation method, both T/R estimations are almost equal. Therefore, the suggested methodologies in this study will contribute to set up the national-wide mitigation plan against debris flow occurrence.

Time Series Analysis of Area of Deltaic Barrier Island in Nakdong River Using Landsat Satellite Image (Landsat 위성영상을 활용한 낙동강 삼각주 연안사주의 면적 시계열 분석)

  • Lee, Seulki;Yang, Mihee;Lee, Changwook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.457-469
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    • 2016
  • Nakdong river barrage was affected by artificial interference such as construction of port, industrial complex and estuary barrage. This change in Nadong river lead to environmental changes and affected the ability of barrier islands. Therefore, it is decided that the observation of changes in the Nakdong river estuary is very important. In this paper, the topographic change of the Nakdong river barrage observe based on Landsat TM, ETM+ images from 1984 to 2015. In addition, this study tried to conduct a comparative analysis on the area for change of sandy sediment according to tide level. This results could estimate height and volume about sandy sediment accumulated on the lower sand dune. Also, these results are expected to be the basis for prediction of the changing topography of the sand dune. The area of the average change in region 1,2,3 was calculated as 3,015m2, 167,550m2, 14,596m2. This result is expected to be very useful for the continuous observation for sediment changes of Nakdong river.

Development of Permanent Displacement Model for Seismic Mountain Slope (지진 시 산사면의 영구변위 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, Jong-Hoo;Park, Duhee;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Park, Inn-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2015
  • Empirical seismic displacement equations based on the Newmark sliding block method are widely used to develop seismic landslide hazard map. Most proposed equations have been developed for embankments and landfills, and do not consider the dynamic response of sliding block. Therefore, they cannot be applied to Korean mountain slopes composed of thin, uniform soil-layer underlain by an inclined bedrock parallel to the slope. In this paper, a series of two-dimensional dynamic nonlinear finite difference analyses were performed to estimate the permanent seismic slope displacement. The seismic displacement of mountain slopes was calculated using the Newmark method and the equivalent acceleration time history. The calculated seismic displacements of the mountain slopes were compared to a widely used empirical displacement model. We show that the displacement prediction is significantly enhanced if the slope is modeled as a flexible sliding mass and the amplification characteristics are accounted for. Regression equation, which uses PGA, PGV, Arias intensity of the ground motion and the fundamental period of soil layer, is shown to provide a reliable estimate of the sliding displacement. Furthermore, the empirical equation is shown to reliably predict the hazard category.

Modeling and analysis of selected organization for economic cooperation and development PKL-3 station blackout experiments using TRACE

  • Mukin, Roman;Clifford, Ivor;Zerkak, Omar;Ferroukhi, Hakim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.356-367
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    • 2018
  • A series of tests dedicated to station blackout (SBO) accident scenarios have been recently performed at the $Prim{\ddot{a}}rkreislauf-Versuchsanlage$ (primary coolant loop test facility; PKL) facility in the framework of the OECD/NEA PKL-3 project. These investigations address current safety issues related to beyond design basis accident transients with significant core heat up. This work presents a detailed analysis using the best estimate thermal-hydraulic code TRACE (v5.0 Patch4) of different SBO scenarios conducted at the PKL facility; failures of high- and low-pressure safety injection systems together with steam generator (SG) feedwater supply are considered, thus calling for adequate accident management actions and timely implementation of alternative emergency cooling procedures to prevent core meltdown. The presented analysis evaluates the capability of the applied TRACE model of the PKL facility to correctly capture the sequences of events in the different SBO scenarios, namely the SBO tests H2.1, H2.2 run 1 and H2.2 run 2, including symmetric or asymmetric secondary side depressurization, primary side depressurization, accumulator (ACC) injection in the cold legs and secondary side feeding with mobile pump and/or primary side emergency core coolant injection from the fuel pool cooling pump. This study is focused specifically on the prediction of the core exit temperature, which drives the execution of the most relevant accident management actions. This work presents, in particular, the key improvements made to the TRACE model that helped to improve the code predictions, including the modeling of dynamical heat losses, the nodalization of SGs' heat exchanger tubes and the ACCs. Another relevant aspect of this work is to evaluate how well the model simulations of the three different scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively capture the trends and results exhibited by the actual experiments. For instance, how the number of SGs considered for secondary side depressurization affects the heat transfer from primary side; how the discharge capacity of the pressurizer relief valve affects the dynamics of the transient; how ACC initial pressure and nitrogen release affect the grace time between ACC injection and subsequent core heat up; and how well the alternative feeding modes of the secondary and/or primary side with mobile injection pumps affect core quenching and ensure stable long-term core cooling under controlled boiling conditions.

Generalized Sigmidal Basis Function for Improving the Learning Performance fo Multilayer Perceptrons (다층 퍼셉트론의 학습 성능 개선을 위한 일반화된 시그모이드 베이시스 함수)

  • Park, Hye-Yeong;Lee, Gwan-Yong;Lee, Il-Byeong;Byeon, Hye-Ran
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.1261-1269
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    • 1999
  • 다층 퍼셉트론은 다양한 응용 분야에 성공적으로 적용되고 있는 대표적인 신경회로망 모델이다. 그러나 다층 퍼셉트론의 학습에서 나타나는 플라토에 기인한 느린 학습 속도와 지역 극소는 실제 응용문제에 적용함에 있어서 가장 큰 문제로 지적되어왔다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 여러 가지 다양한 학습알고리즘들이 개발되어 왔으나, 계산의 비효율성으로 인해 실제 문제에는 적용하기 힘든 예가 많은 등, 현재까지 만족할 만한 해결책은 제시되지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 다층퍼셉트론의 베이시스 함수로 사용되는 시그모이드 함수를 보다 일반화된 형태로 정의하여 사용함으로써 학습에 있어서의 플라토를 완화하고, 지역극소에 빠지는 것을 줄이는 접근방법을 소개한다. 본 방법은 기존의 변형된 가중치 수정식을 사용한 학습 속도 향상의 방법들과는 다른 접근 방법을 택함으로써 기존의 방법들과 함께 사용하는 것이 가능하다는 특징을 갖고 있다. 제안하는 방법의 성능을 확인하기 위하여 간단한 패턴 인식 문제들에의 적용 실험 및 기존의 학습 속도 향상 방법을 함께 사용하여 시계열 예측 문제에 적용한 실험을 수행하였고, 그 결과로부터 제안안 방법의 효율성을 확인할 수 있었다. Abstract A multilayer perceptron is the most well-known neural network model which has been successfully applied to various fields of application. Its slow learning caused by plateau and local minima of gradient descent learning, however, have been pointed as the biggest problems in its practical use. To solve such a problem, a number of researches on learning algorithms have been conducted, but it can be said that none of satisfying solutions have been presented so far because the problems such as computational inefficiency have still been existed in these algorithms. In this paper, we propose a new learning approach to minimize the effect of plateau and reduce the possibility of getting trapped in local minima by generalizing the sigmoidal function which is used as the basis function of a multilayer perceptron. Adapting a new approach that differs from the conventional methods with revised updating equation, the proposed method can be used together with the existing methods to improve the learning performance. We conducted some experiments to test the proposed method on simple problems of pattern recognition and a problem of time series prediction, compared our results with the results of the existing methods, and confirmed that the proposed method is efficient enough to apply to the real problems.

A study of applying soil moisture for improving false alarm rates in monitoring landslides (산사태 모니터링 오탐지율 개선을 위한 토양수분자료 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Seungcheol;Jeong, Jaehwan;Choi, Minha;Yoon, Hongsik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1205-1214
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    • 2021
  • Precipitation is one of a major causes of landslides by rising of pore water pressure, which leads to fluctuations of soil strength and stress. For this reason, precipitation is the most frequently used to determine the landslide thresholds. However, using only precipitation has limitations in predicting and estimating slope stability quantitatively for reducing false alarm events. On the other hand, Soil Moisture (SM) has been used for calculating slope stability in many studies since it is directly related to pore water pressure than precipitation. Therefore, this study attempted to evaluate the appropriateness of applying soil moisture in determining the landslide threshold. First, the reactivity of soil saturation level to precipitation was identified through time-series analysis. The precipitation threshold was calculated using daily precipitation (Pdaily) and the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), and the hydrological threshold was calculated using daily precipitation and soil saturation level. Using a contingency table, these two thresholds were assessed qualitatively. In results, compared to Pdaily only threshold, Goesan showed an improvement of 75% (Pdaily + API) and 42% (Pdaily + SM) and Changsu showed an improvement of 33% (Pdaily + API) and 44% (Pdaily + SM), respectively. Both API and SM effectively enhanced the Critical Success Index (CSI) and reduced the False Alarm Rate (FAR). In the future, studies such as calculating rainfall intensity required to cause/trigger landslides through soil saturation level or estimating rainfall resistance according to the soil saturation level are expected to contribute to improving landslide prediction accuracy.

Comparison of Prediction Accuracy Between Classification and Convolution Algorithm in Fault Diagnosis of Rotatory Machines at Varying Speed (회전수가 변하는 기기의 고장진단에 있어서 특성 기반 분류와 합성곱 기반 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 비교)

  • Moon, Ki-Yeong;Kim, Hyung-Jin;Hwang, Se-Yun;Lee, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2022
  • This study examined the diagnostics of abnormalities and faults of equipment, whose rotational speed changes even during regular operation. The purpose of this study was to suggest a procedure that can properly apply machine learning to the time series data, comprising non-stationary characteristics as the rotational speed changes. Anomaly and fault diagnosis was performed using machine learning: k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest. To compare the diagnostic accuracy, an autoencoder was used for anomaly detection and a convolution based Conv1D was additionally used for fault diagnosis. Feature vectors comprising statistical and frequency attributes were extracted, and normalization & dimensional reduction were applied to the extracted feature vectors. Changes in the diagnostic accuracy of machine learning according to feature selection, normalization, and dimensional reduction are explained. The hyperparameter optimization process and the layered structure are also described for each algorithm. Finally, results show that machine learning can accurately diagnose the failure of a variable-rotation machine under the appropriate feature treatment, although the convolution algorithms have been widely applied to the considered problem.