• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• v.54 no.4
• /
• pp.611-622
• /
• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• v.15 no.6
• /
• pp.1335-1349
• /
• 2019

Crowdsensing technologies can improve the efficiency of smart parking system in comparison with present sensor based smart parking system because of low install price and no restriction caused by sensor installation. A lot of sensing data is necessary to predict parking lot saturation in real-time. However in real world, it is hard to reach the required number of sensing data. In this paper, we model a saturation predication combining a time-based prediction model and a sensing data-based prediction model. The time-based model predicts saturation in aspects of parking lot location and time. The sensing data-based model predicts the degree of saturation of the parking lot with high accuracy based on the degree of saturation predicted from the first model, the saturation information in the sensing data, and the number of parking spaces in the sensing data. We perform prediction model learning with real sensing data gathered from a specific parking lot. We also evaluate the performance of the predictive model and show its efficiency and feasibility.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.82-89
• /
• 2023

Various machine-learning models may yield high predictive power for massive time series for time series prediction. However, these models are prone to instability in terms of computational cost because of the high dimensionality of the feature space and nonoptimized hyperparameter settings. Considering the potential risk that model training with a high-dimensional feature set can be time-consuming, we evaluate a feature-importance-based feature selection method to derive a tradeoff between predictive power and computational cost for time series prediction. We used two machine learning techniques for performance evaluation to generate prediction models from a retail sales dataset. First, we ranked the features using impurity- and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) -based feature importance measures in the prediction models. Then, the recursive feature elimination method was applied to eliminate unimportant features sequentially. Consequently, we obtained a subset of features that could lead to reduced model training time while preserving acceptable model performance.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.54 no.8
• /
• pp.3027-3033
• /
• 2022

Background: In this study, various types of deep-learning models for predicting in vitro radiosensitivity from gene-expression profiling were compared. Methods: The clonogenic surviving fractions at 2 Gy from previous publications and microarray gene-expression data from the National Cancer Institute-60 cell lines were used to measure the radiosensitivity. Seven different prediction models including three distinct multi-layered perceptrons (MLP), four different convolutional neural networks (CNN) were compared. Folded cross-validation was applied to train and evaluate model performance. The criteria for correct prediction were absolute error < 0.02 or relative error < 10%. The models were compared in terms of prediction accuracy, training time per epoch, training fluctuations, and required calculation resources. Results: The strength of MLP-based models was their fast initial convergence and short training time per epoch. They represented significantly different prediction accuracy depending on the model configuration. The CNN-based models showed relatively high prediction accuracy, low training fluctuations, and a relatively small increase in the memory requirement as the model deepens. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a CNN-based model with moderate depth would be appropriate when the prediction accuracy is important, and a shallow MLP-based model can be recommended when either the training resources or time are limited.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.241-253
• /
• 2015

In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.111-115
• /
• 2024

This study builds a machine learning model optimized for clocks among various techniques in the field of artificial intelligence and applies it to clock stabilization or synchronization technology based on atomic clock noise characteristics. In addition, the possibility of providing stable source clock data is confirmed through the characteristics of machine learning predicted values during holdover of atomic clocks. The proposed machine learning model is evaluated by comparing its performance with the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, an existing statistical clock prediction model. From the results of the analysis, the prediction model proposed in this study (MSE: 9.47476) has a lower MSE value than the ARIMA model (MSE: 221.2622), which means that it provides more accurate predictions. The prediction accuracy is based on understanding the complex nature of data that changes over time and how well the model reflects this. The application of a machine learning prediction model can be seen as a way to overcome the limitations of the statistical-based ARIMA model in time series prediction and achieve improved prediction performance.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.35 no.9
• /
• pp.735-740
• /
• 2011

It is necessary to develop the one stop system in order to protect our marine environment rapidly from oil spill accident. The purpose of this study is to develop real time database for oil spill prediction modeling and implement real time prediction modelling with ESI and server-client GIS based user interface. The existing oil spill prediction model cannot provide one stop information system for public and government who should protect sea from oil spill accident. The development of multi user based information system permits integrated handling of real time meteorological data from external ftp. A server-client GIS based model is integrated on the basis of real time database and ESI map to provide the result of the oil spill prediction model. End users can access through the client interface and request analysis such as oil spill prediction and GIS functions on the network as their own purpose.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.15 no.11
• /
• pp.3913-3934
• /
• 2021

Real-time prediction of Web service of quality (QoS) provides more convenience for web services in cloud environment, but real-time QoS prediction faces severe challenges, especially under the cold-start situation. Existing literatures of real-time QoS predicting ignore that the QoS of a user/service is related to the QoS of other users/services. For example, users/services belonging to the same group of category will have similar QoS values. All of the methods ignore the group relationship because of the complexity of the model. Based on this, we propose a real-time Matrix Factorization based Clustering model (MFC), which uses category information as a new regularization term of the loss function. Specifically, in order to meet the real-time characteristic of the real-time prediction model, and to minimize the complexity of the model, we first map the QoS values of a large number of users/services to a lower-dimensional space by the PCA method, and then use the K-means algorithm calculates user/service category information, and use the average result to obtain a stable final clustering result. Extensive experiments on real-word datasets demonstrate that MFC outperforms other state-of-the-art prediction algorithms.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.91-100
• /
• 2005

Grid computing is widely applicable to various fields of industry including process control and manufacturing, military command and control, transportation management, and so on. In a viewpoint of application area, grid computing can be classified to three aspects that are computational grid, data grid and access grid. This paper focuses on computational grid which handles complex and large-scale computing problems. Computational grid is characterized by system dynamics which handles a variety of processors and jobs on continuous time. To solve problems of system complexity and reliability due to complex system dynamics, computational grid needs scheduling policies that allocate various jobs to proper processors and decide processing orders of allocated jobs. This paper proposes a service prediction-based job scheduling model and present its scheduling algorithm that is applicable for computational grid. The service prediction-based job scheduling model can minimize overall system execution time since the model predicts the next processing time of each processing component and distributes a job to a processing component with minimum processing time. This paper implements the job scheduling model on the DEVS modeling and simulation environment and evaluates its efficiency and reliability. Empirical results, which are compared to conventional scheduling policies, show the usefulness of service prediction-based job scheduling.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.65-72
• /
• 2003

Internet roundtrip delay/time (RTT) prediction plays an important role in detecting packet losses in reliable transport protocols for traditional web applications and determining proper transmission rates in many rate-based TCP-friendly protocols for Internet-based real-time applications. The widely adopted autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model with fixed-parameters is shown to be insufficient for all scenarios due to its intrinsic limitation that it filters out all high-frequency components of RTT dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a novel parameter-varying RTT model for Internet roundtrip time prediction based on the information theory and the maximum entropy principle (MEP). Since the coefficients of the proposed RTT model are updated dynamically, the model is adaptive and it tracks RTT dynamics rapidly. The results of our experiments show that the MEP algorithm works better than the ARMA method in both RTT prediction and RTO estimation.