• Title/Summary/Keyword: theoretical probability

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Theoretical Background of Division of Role in Technology Financing Based on Uncertainty Implied in Industrial Technology Development (산업기술개발의 불확실성에 따른 금융지원의 역할분담에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • 김선근
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.206-222
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    • 1997
  • The conventional analysis with which justifies government intervention of the private sector's innovation activities is the market failure approach. According to such analysis, fund allocation through autonomous market mechanisms is not optimal in technology financing because of the disparity between the desirable level of investment for society as a whole and that for private firms. To optimize the fund allocation, public policies such as subsidy, preferencial loan and venture capital investment programs are designed for technology development projects performed by private firms. They, however, have not been effective in increasing private investment for such projects. In most cases, it was found that little considerations given to the relationship between uncertainty embodied in technology development projects and each types of financing. With respect to optimizing fund allocation, technology development projects should be financed by different means according to their probability of success and the expected value of technology. Employing various theoretical models on financing decision-making we verify here that technology development projects to be supported by commercial banks or venture capital institutions is limited contingent upon levels of uncertainty adn expected value. Under the assumption that financial institutions are risk averse, loan or investment can be available only if the probability of success of the project is higher than the probability premium and the current market rate of interest. Therefore, the projects that have lower probability of success and/or small expected return are excluded from commercial loan or investment programs. However, the remaining projects, whose probability of success is low but with high expected return, may be applied under government subsidy programs. To achieve optimality of fund allocation and to activate technology financing, we conclude that there should be a systematic division of role among financial institutions including government commercial banks, and venture capital institutions.

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Unsaturated Throughput Analysis of IEEE 802.11 DCF under Imperfect Channel Sensing

  • Shin, Soo-Young
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.989-1005
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, throughput of IEEE 802.11 carrier-sense multiple access (CSMA) with collision-avoidance (CA) protocols in non-saturated traffic conditions is presented taking into account the impact of imperfect channel sensing. The imperfect channel sensing includes both missed-detection and false alarm and their impact on the utilization of IEEE 802.11 analyzed and expressed as a closed form. To include the imperfect channel sensing at the physical layer, we modified the state transition probabilities of well-known two state Markov process model. Simulation results closely match the theoretical expressions confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model. Based on both theoretical and simulated results, the choice of the best probability detection while maintaining probability of false alarm is less than 0.5 is a key factor for maximizing utilization of IEEE 802.11.

Improved Conditional Differential Attacks on Round-Reduced Grain v1

  • Li, Jun-Zhi;Guan, Jie
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.4548-4559
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    • 2018
  • Conditional differential attack against NFSR-based cryptosystems proposed by Knellwolf et al. in Asiacrypt 2010 has been widely used for analyzing round-reduced Grain v1. In this paper, we present improved conditional differential attacks on Grain v1 based on a factorization simplification method, which makes it possible to obtain the expressions of internal states in more rounds and analyze the expressions more precisely. Following a condition-imposing strategy that saves more IV bits, Sarkar's distinguishing attack on Grain v1 of 106 rounds is improved to a key recovery attack. Moreover, we show new distinguishing attack and key recovery attack on Grain v1 of 107 rounds with lower complexity O($2^{34}$) and appreciable theoretical success probability 93.7%. Most importantly, our attacks can practically recover key expressions with higher success probability than theoretical results.

Stochastic Model based Fault Diagnosis System of Induction Motors using Online Probability Density Estimation (온라인 확률분포 추정기법을 이용한 확률모델 기반 유도전동기의 고장진단 시스템)

  • Cho, Hyun-Cheol;Kim, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Kwon-Soon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.10
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    • pp.1847-1853
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents stochastic methodology based fault detection algorithm for induction motor systems. We measure current of healthy induction motors by means of hall sensor systems and then establish its probability distribution. We propose online probability density estimation which is effective in real-time implementation due to its simplicity and low computational burden. In addition, we accomplish theoretical analysis to demonstrate convergence property of the proposed estimation by using statistical convergence and system stability theory. We apply our fault diagnosis approach to three-phase induction motors and achieve real-time experiment for evaluating its reliability and practicability in industrial fields.

Performance Analysis of Multi-Hop Decode-and-Forward Relaying with Selection Combining

  • Bao, Vo Nguyen Quoe;Kong, Hyung-Yun
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.616-623
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, exact closed-form expressions for outage probability and bit error probability (BEP) are presented for multi-hop decode-and-forward (DF) relaying schemes in conjunction with cooperative diversity, in which selection combining technique is employed at each node. We have shown that the proposed protocol offers remarkable diversity advantage over direct transmission as well as the conventional DF relaying schemes with the same combining technique. We then investigate the system performance when different diversity schemes are employed. It has been observed that the system performance loss due to selection combining relative to maximal ratio combining is not significant. Simulations are performed to confirm our theoretical analysis.

Application of Probability Density Function in SFEM and Corresponding Limit Value (추계론적 유한요소해석에서의 확률밀도함수 사용과 수렴치)

  • Noh Hyuk-Chun
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.857-864
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    • 2006
  • Due to the difficulties in numerical generation of random fields that satisfy not only the probabilistic distribution but the spectral characteristics as well. it is relatively hard to find an exact response variability of a structural response with a specific random field which has its features in the spatial and spectral domains. In this study. focusing on the fact that the random field assumes a constant over the domain under consideration when the correlation distance tends to infinity, a semi-theoretical solution of response variability is proposed for in-plane and plate bending structures. In this procedure, the probability density function is used directly resulting in a semi-exact solution for the random field in the state of random variable. It is particularly noteworthy that the proposed methodology provides response variability for virtually any type of probability density functions.

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A Parametric Study on Secondary Electron Emission from MgO

  • Yoon, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Yong-Seog
    • 한국정보디스플레이학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.953-956
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    • 2008
  • Using the theoretical model of Auger electron emission, effects of MgO properties which include band gap energy, escape probability, gas ion, and doping elements on the yield of secondary electron emission were examined. The results indicated that the band gap of MgO must be decreased and escape probability must be enhanced in order to increase the yield of secondary electrons from Xe ions and that may proved to be a critical for achieving high luminance efficacy in ac-PDPs.

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Cooperative Multi-Hop Transmission Protocol with Incremental Relaying Strategy over Rayleigh Fading Channel

  • Duy, Tran Trung;An, Chong-Koo
    • Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.142-147
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose a novel protocol called Cooperative Multi-hop transmission using Incremental Relaying (CMIR). We evaluate the performance of the CMIR protocol by deriving expressions for the average end-to-end outage probability and the average number of transmissions. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to verify the accuracy of the theoretical analyses.

A Study on Analysis through the Probability and Statistics of the Curriculum and Text book in Elementary, Middle and High School (초.중.고교 확률.통계의 효율적인 지도에 관한 연구)

  • 오후진;유병대
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 1998
  • Probability and statistics is an important section in mathematics which is deeply related to everyday living, natural science and social science. In spite of its importance, many students will throw away it because it becomes very harder as its step(stage) deepens and probability and statistics' relative importance is very small in Korea-SAT(the test of college entrance in Korea). Therefore, by analyzing the involvement carefully between the curriculum in the elementary, middle, high school and the text book, by studying the problem and improvement direction, it is necessary to investigate an effective teaching method. This study intends to give the students the confidence, interests, and accomplishment motive about probability and statistics field and to make a rational and creative decision-making through mathematical speculation by proposing an effective teaching method through analyzing an existing facts in school's probability and statistics field. The contents of this study are composed of four chapters. Chapter three looks into the mathematical curriculum in the elementary, middle, high school and its teaching meaning, the outline of contents, some tips on teaching and problems and presents an effective and concrete teaching method on the basis of the theoretical background in the chapter two. Chapter four is a conclusive part and gives the general improvement and intentional direction in educating the probability and statistics.

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Characteristics of Probability Distribution of BOD Concentration in Anseong Stream Watershed (안성천 유역의 BOD농도 확률분포 특성)

  • Kim, Kyung Sub;Ahn, Taejin
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.425-431
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    • 2009
  • It is very important to know the probability distribution of water-quality constituents for water-quality control and management of rivers and reservoirs effectively. The probability distribution of BOD in Anseong Stream was analyzed in this paper using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test which is widely used goodness-of-fit method. It was known that the distribution of BOD in Anseong Stream is closer to Log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distributions than Normal distribution. Normal distribution can be partially applied depending on significance level, but Log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distributions can be used in any significance level. Also the estimated Log-normal distribution of BOD at Jinwi3 station was to be compared with the measured in 2001, 2002 and 2003 years. It was revealed that the estimated probability distribution of BOD at Jinwi3 follows a theoretical distribution very well. The applicable probability distribution of BOD can be used to explain more rigorously and scientifically the achievement or violation of target concentration in TMDL(Total Maximum Daily Load).