• 제목/요약/키워드: the estimation of policy

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시스템다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 온실가스 감축정책 평가 (System Dynamics Application for the Evaluation of Greenhouse Gases Reduction Policy)

  • 장남정;김민경;양고수
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.55-68
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    • 2013
  • It is necessary to evaluate the greenhouse gases (GHGs) reduction policy by central and regional governments to set up the suitable GHG emissions measures. Quantitative, qualitative and synthetic methods have been adopted by previous researches to estimate GHG reduction policy. However, these methods mostly focused on the results of the reduction policy, rather than understanding and fixing the integrated structures of GHG emissions. In this research, System Dynamics(SD) was applied to 1 million green homes program, self-carfree-day system and carbon point program. The results showed that SD analyses could be appliable for the estimation of GHG reduction policy by developing the feedback loops and dynamic simulation model. SD can be consider as a supplementary tool to estimate the GHG reduction policies through the recognition of the structure in complex real system.

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지역 합계출산율에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석: 횡단면 의존성을 고려한 모형을 이용하여 (Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Total Fertility Rate: Using a Model Considering Cross-sectional Dependence)

  • 김소연;류수열
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.335-352
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - Low fertility rate is a serious problem, and this study analyzes factors affecting total fertility rate using panel data from 16 metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea from 2000 to 2022. Design/methodology/approach - Estimating the SAR model considering the weak cross-sectional dependence that exists in variables related to the regional total fertility rate, and using the DKSE estimation method considering the strong cross-sectional dependence. Findings - Estimation results considering weak and strong cross-sectional dependence were similar, confirming the robustness of the results. Female labor force participation rate has a positive effect on total fertility rate, and employment rate has no effect. However, the interaction term is a negative (-) sign. Crude marriage rate has a positive effect on total fertility rate, and apartment price has a slightly positive effect. Environmental factor has no effect, and policy factor has a negative effect. Research implications or Originality - In order for an increase in the female labor force participation rate to lead to an increase in the total fertility rate, qualitative improvements in female employment must be made. Financial investment policies for childbirth must increase their effectiveness. The problem of low fertility rate requires not only population policy but also social, economic, cultural, environmental, and policy conditions to be considered.

Policy-based Loans to Korean SME Exporters and the Intensive Margin of Exports

  • Whang, Unjung;Koo, Kyong Hyun
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.179-204
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    • 2022
  • This study examines the extent to which policy-based loans to SME exporters affect their export performance (the intensive margin of exports). We also investigate the heterogeneous export effects of policy-based loans that may depend on firm- and industry-specific characteristics, such as credit ratings, debt-to-assets ratios, firm size and age. To do so, we conduct a survey, of 1,000 Korean SMEs, that collect information on firm-level exports and policy-based loans. The main empirical findings strongly support that SMEs that receive policy-based loans tend to increase their export volumes. However, these loans' positive impact on exports are only valid for SME exporters with credit scores of 12 or greater (that is, SMEs that have difficulty accessing the external financial market). The estimation results with respect to SMEs' dependence on external financing imply that policy-based loans for SMEs in sectors that are heavily dependent on external finance are effective in that they are instrumental in increasing these firms' exports. These empirical findings emphasize the importance of the external financial market to SME exporters who face various up-front investments that are related to their exporting activities.

The Effect of Trade Agreements on Korea's Bilateral Trade Volume: Mitigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty in Trading Countries

  • Heedae Park;Jiyoung An
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

이기종 저장장치를 위한 제거 비용 평가 기반 캐시 관리 기법 (A Cache Management Technique Based on Eviction Cost Estimation for Heterogeneous Storage Devices)

  • 박세진;박찬익
    • 대한임베디드공학회논문지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2012
  • The objective of cache is to reduce I/O access of physical storage device so that user accesses their data faster. Traditionally, the most important metric to measure the performance of cache is hitratio. Thus, when the cache maintains hitratio high, it is regarded as a good cache replacement policy. However, the cache miss latency is different when the storages are heterogeneous. Though the cache hitratio is high, if the cache often misses with low performance disk, then the user experiences low performance. To address this problem we proposed eviction cost estimation based cache management. In our result, the eviction cost estimation based cache management has 10~30% throughput improvement compared with LRU cache management.

신도시 계획단계에서의 교통부문 온실가스 배출량 산정 및 감축효과 분석방법론 연구 (Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport Sector in New Town Development)

  • 한상진;박경욱;박수진
    • 환경정책연구
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.45-69
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    • 2013
  • 2020년까지의 국가온실가스 감축목표를 달성하기 위해서는 도시교통부문에서 상당한 감축노력이 필요하다. 특히 새롭게 개발되는 신도시의 온실가스 배출량을 줄이는 노력은 이러한 목표달성에 도움이 된다. 본 연구는 Schipper, celine, Roger(2000)가 개발한 교통부문 온실가스 배출량 산정의 일반모형을 토대로 신도시 개발 계획에 따른 교통부문의 베이스라인 온실가스 배출량을 산정한다. 이를 위해 우리나라에서 이용이 가능한 교통부문의 통계자료를 어떻게 활용할 수 있는지 제시한다. 이 과정에서 차종별, 대-km별 온실가스 배출원단위를 산정하였다. 아울러 다양한 교통부문의 온실가스 저감정책 효과를 분석하는데 개발된 모형이 활용될 수 있는지를 판단하기 위해 자전거 이용 활성화 정책을 사례로 온실가스 저감잠재량을 분석한다. 인천광역시 검단 1지구 신도시를 대상으로 적용한 결과 교통부문의 베이스라인 온실가스 배출량은 연간 약 36만 톤으로 추정되었고 자전거 이용 활성화 정책으로 5%의 자전거 수단분담율을 달성할 경우 연간 약 1,869톤의 온실가스를 줄일 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

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양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료의 추정방법에 따른 지불의사금액의 변동성 연구 (Study on Variability of WTP Estimates by the Estimation Methods using Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data)

  • 신영철
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 조기사망 위험 감소를 위한 지불의사금액에 대한 양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료를 이용하여, 자의적인 모수적 분포(즉, 정규분포, 로지스틱분포, 로그정규분포, 지수분포)를 가정하여 도출하는 지불의사금액 대푯값(즉, 평균 내지 중앙값)의 변동성을 비교 검토하였다. 이를 위해 특정 모수적 분포라는 제약을 갖지 않는 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법(nonparametric estimation method)에 의한 결과를 함께 비교 검토하면, 정책의사결정에서는 인정되기 어려운 수준의 WTP 대푯값들의 변동성이 확인되었다. 한편 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 대푯값은 기본적으로 자의적 모수적 분포 가정에 의한 일종의 오지정 편의를 회피할 수 있다. 또한 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법으로는 단일양분선택형 CV 자료이든 이중양분선택형 CV 자료이든 거의 유사한 추정치를 도출하고, 모수적 분포를 가정한 추정방법으로는 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻지 못하는 상황에서도 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻을 수 있는 강건성(robustness)을 보여주었다. 그러므로 양분선택형 CV 자료에서 특정 모수적 분포의 적합성을 판단하기 어려운 상황에서 자의적 모수적 분포의 가정에서 도출한 WTP의 대푯값들이 상당한 변동성을 보인다면, Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 평균 추정치가 정책의사결정에서 논란의 여지를 회피할 수 있는 비자의적이고 강건한 추정치가 될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있다.

The Impact of Minimum Wage Policy on Employment in Myanmar

  • KYAW, Min Thu;CHO, Yooncheong
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the minimum wage policy and the employment labor force in Myanmar by exploring firms' actions such as installing supplementary machines to substitute for labor resources and by addressing gender issues in employment. Research design, data, and methodology: This paper applies a fixed-effect estimation method by using the World Bank's enterprise panel data set surveyed in Myanmar. Results: Findings suggest that the minimum wage reduces both full-time and part-time employment, while the first minimum wage policy increases overall female employment. The adverse impacts are more pronounced for female employees of Joint Venture enterprises and enterprises located in the less-populated regions. Investment in capital such as equipment and machinery increase to substitute for labor after the minimum wage policy implementation; as a result, full-time employment slightly decreases. Conclusions: Appropriate measures concerning the minimum wage policy must be prepared by the government and institutions related to the labor union to serve the well-being of employees. Government of Myanmar should fix the minimum wage in a reasonable period based on the fiscal year for both employers and employees to prevent possible issues and losses resulting from the minimum wage being set.

품질하자보증비의 추정 (Estimation of Warranty Cost)

  • 최정호;이상용
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제20권43호
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    • pp.357-364
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    • 1997
  • After the buyer purchases the product, the seller's role does not end. If the product fails to function properly before the end of the warranty period, the seller is responsible for its repair or replacement under the seller's warranty policy. There are two common types of warranty policies: the free replacement warranty and the rebate warranty. Under the free replacement warranty policy, replacement or repairs during the warranty period are provided by the seller free of charge to the buyer. Under the rebate warranty policy, a failed item is replaced by a new one or is repaired at a cost to the age of the failed item. The rebate warranty is most often used for items such as a battery or an automobile tire which wear out and must be replaced at failure. This paper proposes a easy way of estimating the warranty cost under the free replacement warranty policy assuming an exponential product failure function on repairable products.

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