• Title/Summary/Keyword: the cause-effect relationship

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Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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Effect of rheumatoid arthritis on periodontitis: a historical cohort study

  • Torkzaban, Parviz;Hjiabadi, Tayebeh;Basiri, Zahra;Poorolajal, Jalal
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic multi-systemic disease that causes damage to the bone and connective tissues. This study was conducted in order to accurately measure the correlation between RA and periodontitis, and to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of RA on periodontal indices. Methods: In this historical cohort study, which was conducted from February to May 2011 in Hamadan city, Iran, 53 exposed people (with RA) were compared with 53 unexposed people (without RA) in terms of clinical periodontal indices (the outcomes of interest) including 1) plaque index (PI), 2) bleeding on probing (BOP), and 3) clinical attachment loss (CAL). Results: A sample of 106 volunteers were evaluated, 53 rheumatoid versus 53 non-rheumatoid subjects. There was a statistically significant correlation between RA and BOP (P<0.001) and between RA and CAL (P<0.001). However, there was no statistically significant correlation between RA and any of the periodontal indices. No correlation was seen between gender and any of the indices either. There was a strong positive correlation between age and all three periodontal indices (P<0.001). Conclusions: The present study indicated a potential effect of RA on periodontal indices. However, much more evidence based on a prospective cohort study is needed to support the cause and effect relationship between RA and periodontal indices.

The Exploration of the Dialectical Interface of Other and Subject: A Reading of Christina Rossetti's "Goblin Market" (대타자와 주체의 변증법적 인터페이스 탐색 -크리스티나 로제티의 「도깨비 시장」 읽기)

  • Kim, Kyung-Soon
    • Journal of English Language & Literature
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.219-241
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    • 2007
  • This study takes its point of departure from Lacanian psychoanalysis and explores the point that an irremediable gap in the human subject can be illuminated in terms of the Lacanian categories, fantasy, symptom, gaze or voice as cause of desire of the Other. With respect to the category of the symptom, Lacan claims that the Other is always already there in the constitution of the subject, that is, the relation of the subject to the Other that is overwhelming as well as attracting the subject. Chapter II deals with the unthought, excessive ground of the conscious that borders on the subject, as is the case of self-excentric aspect of the man. Indeed, in Lacan's early work, the subject is essentially a relationship to the Other as desire(objet petit a), and there is no such thing as a symptom or fantasy without some subjective involvement. Lacanian unknown real, perpetual excess as the cause of desire animates the subject even as it threatens to blast it apart. The structures that establish the lines of desire in every individual are derived from an ineluctably intersubjective field. The Other is always already there in the constitution of the subject. In the final years of Lacan's teaching we find a kind of universalization of the symptom and almost everything that is becomes in a way symptom. Symptom, embodied in Laura in "Goblin Market," is her only substance, the only positive support of her being. By looking at the Laura's symptom in chapter III we gain an insight into the forbidden domain, into a real space that should be left unseen and unthought. The voice of goblin men therefore functions as a sublime object that is animating as well as dominating element even as it threatens to disintegrate the subject. Objet petit a as a sublime object that must be excluded in reality returns in the real, taking on a certain materiality which has an effect on Laura, that is, animates Laura's desire. Objet petit a is a real object, signifying nothing. In conclusion, the theoretical importance of Lacanian psychoanalysis is the relation between a subject and an Other as Objet petit a.

The Effect of the Buffer Size in QoS for Multimedia and bursty Traffic: When an Upgrade Becomes a Downgrade

  • Sequeira, Luis;Fernandez-Navajas, Julian;Saldana, Jose
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.8 no.9
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    • pp.3159-3176
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    • 2014
  • This work presents an analysis of the buffer features of an access router, especially the size, the impact on delay and the packet loss rate. In particular, we study how these features can affect the Quality of Service (QoS) of multimedia applications when generating traffic bursts in local networks. First, we show how in a typical SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) network in which several multimedia flows (VoIP, videoconferencing and video surveillance) share access, the upgrade of the bandwidth of the internal network may cause the appearance of a significant amount of packet loss caused by buffer overflow. Secondly, the study shows that the bursty nature of the traffic in some applications traffic (video surveillance) may impair their QoS and that of other services (VoIP and videoconferencing), especially when a certain number of bursts overlap. Various tests have been developed with the aim of characterizing the problems that may appear when network capacity is increased in these scenarios. In some cases, especially when applications generating bursty traffic are present, increasing the network speed may lead to a deterioration in the quality. It has been found that the cause of this quality degradation is buffer overflow, which depends on the bandwidth relationship between the access and the internal networks. Besides, it has been necessary to describe the packet loss distribution by means of a histogram since, although most of the communications present good QoS results, a few of them have worse outcomes. Finally, in order to complete the study we present the MOS results for VoIP calculated from the delay and packet loss rate.

A Total Survey Error Analysis of the Exit Polling for General Election 2008 in Korea (2008 총선 출구조사의 총조사오차 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Won;Kwak, Eun-Sun
    • Survey Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.33-55
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    • 2010
  • In this study, we newly define the Total Survey Error(TSE) in exit poll and investigate the TSEs of the exit poll survey for the 18th general election of 2008 to analyse the cause of the exit poll prediction error. To explore the main cause and effect of the total survey error, the total survey error was divided by the sampling error which comes from sampling process of poll stations and the non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each electoral district. We consider the relationship between non-response rates and total survey error as well as non-sampling error. Also, we study the representativeness of the exit poll sample by comparing the sex/age distribution of the exit poll data and the National Election Commission poll data.

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The Relationship between Reflux Laryngitis and Voice Change after Alcohol Intake (알코올 섭취 후 나타나는 음성 변화와 역류성 후두염과의 관계)

  • 문고정;김기형;김성태;안철민
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.98-103
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    • 2003
  • Background and Objectives : Although many studies have examined the effect of drinking on voice change, its cause and degree remain unclear. Since voice change occurs more frequently the day following drinking, rather than immediately afterwards, we examined whether the voice change was correlated with reflux laryngitis due to gastroesophageal motor disturbances. Subjects and Methods : For this study, 10 patients were selected who had neither voice change nor symptoms of reflux laryngitis at baseline (male : female=5 : 5, mean age=28 years old) They were subjected to psychoacoustic, acoustic, and aerodynamic tests and video stroboscopy at 4:00 P.M. the day before drinking (test 1), at 8:00 A.M. (test 2) and 4:00 P.M. (test 3) on the following day. On the day of drinking, the subjects had to drink more than their usual amount of Soju(Korean liquor) and were not allowed to talk much. The stroboscopy findings were quantified using the PC Belafsky score. Results : The laryngeal response to gastric reflux after drinking was compared between tests 1 and 2. In both tests, laryngeal edema and injection were observed on video stroboscopy. The psychoacoustic test detected more severe hoarseness in test 2 than in test 1. In addition, the acoustic test detected a mild increase in both jitter and shimmer. However, the differences between tests 2 and 3, which were performed when there was reduced or no gastric reflux, were not significant. Conclusions : Drinking may cause gastric reflux, which produces reversible voice change by irritating the vocal cords and larynx. Therefore, reflux laryngitis should be suspected in a patient whose voice changes markedly after drinking.

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Improvement and Implementation to Enhance the Effectiveness of the Total Pollution Load Control System (수질오염총량관리제 실효성 제고를 위한 제도개선 및 추진 방향)

  • Seok-Gyu Kim;Seung-Young Oh;Su-Young Park;Eun-Hye Na;Yong-Seok Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.343-355
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    • 2023
  • After the implementation of the total pollution load control system, the effect of improving river water quality by expanding investments in basic environmental facilities, inducing operational efficiency, and reducing the load of various pollutants was clear. However, since the implementation of the system, the management of non-point pollutants has been neglected; management focused on specific substances (biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (T-P)) and lacked specific cause analysis and action plans, failed to establish a relationship between water quality and pollution load, failed to reflect stakeholder demands for river water quality management, and failed to apply technical conditions. Therefore, to overcome the limitations raised and achieve a practical and efficient advanced total pollution system, the current system was partially improved and will continue to be improved. This study analyzed the performance and limitations of the total pollution system and introduced recent improvements and the contents that are being improved. The main contents included reducing emissions and reduction monitoring, using water quality tele-monitoring system (TMS) data and self-measurement data, adding population-inducing facilities, and adjusting regional development projects from 20 to 30 multi-family housing units, currentizing each pollutant source according to the roadmap. If the system is improved in a developmental direction and responds to various changes, it will be a more practical and effective policy.

Mesothelioma in Sweden: Dose-Response Analysis for Exposure to 29 Potential Occupational Carcinogenic Agents

  • Plato, Nils;Martinsen, Jan I.;Kjaerheim, Kristina;Kyyronen, Pentti;Sparen, Par;Weiderpass, Elisabete
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.290-295
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    • 2018
  • Background: There is little information on the dose-response relationship between exposure to occupational carcinogenic agents and mesothelioma. This study aimed to investigate this association as well as the existence of agents other than asbestos that might cause mesothelioma. Methods: The Swedish component of the Nordic Occupational Cancer (NOCCA) study consists of 6.78 million individuals with detailed information on occupation. Mesothelioma diagnoses recorded in 1961-2009 were identified through linkage to the Swedish Cancer Registry. We determined cumulative exposure, time of first exposure, and maximum exposure intensity by linking data on occupation to the Swedish NOCCA job-exposure matrix, which includes 29 carcinogenic agents and corresponding exposure for 283 occupations. To assess the risk of mesothelioma, we used conditional logistic regression models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: 2,757 mesothelioma cases were identified in males, including 1,416 who were exposed to asbestos. Univariate analyses showed not only a significant excess risk for maximum exposure intensity, with a hazard ratio of 4.81 at exposure levels 1.25-2.0 fb/ml but also a clear dose-response effect for cumulative exposure with a 30-, 40-, and 50-year latency time. No convincing excess risk was revealed for any of the other carcinogenic agents included in the Swedish NOCCA job-exposure matrix. Conclusion: When considering asbestos exposure, past exposure, even for short periods, might be enough to cause mesothelioma of the pleura later in life.

A Study on the Long-run Equilibrium Relationship and Causality between the Prices of Fisheries Products at Different Levels of Distribution -Focused on Hairtail and Squid in Pusan- (수산물의 유통단계별 가격간 장기균형관계와 인과성 분석 -부산지역의 갈치, 오징어를 중심으로-)

  • 강석규;이광진
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 1998
  • Fisheries products in Korea generally go through three markets, namely the wholesale market at production site (Market A), the wholesale market at consumption site (Market B), and the retail market (Market C), from producers to end consumers. As the products move from Market A through Market B to Market C, the marginal gap of prices asked in these markets demonstrates an apparent relationship. The producers, middlemen, consumers, and governmental departments concerned may influence the marketing prices of fisheries products. This study employing the cointegration theory tries to investigate whether causality of the price-setting among these markets exists and, if any, what it is. The authors have focused their attention on fisheries markets in Pusan, analyzing the long-run equilibrium relationship and causality between the prices of hairtail and squid among markets at different levels. Data used in this study cover the period f개m August 1984 to December 1997 fer hairtail, and the period from May 1989 to December 1997 for squid. The main findings of the study may be summarized as follows: First, regardless of the price time-series of hairtail and squid in individual market, the first difference is necessary fur satisfying the stationary conditions since each time-series is a first integration. This means homogeneous integration of time-series, which is a requirement of the long-run equilibrium of prices at different markets, is satisfied. Second, the study of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices at Market A and Market B shows that a long-run equilibrium relationship does exist for selling prices of the two species at Market A and Market B. Third, the ECM (error correction model ) used here to describe the long- and short-run dynamics of price change demonstrates that, in the case of squid, the price change in Market A will lead to a corresponding price change in Market B in the long-run period. In the short-run, however, the price at Market H is not only influenced by the price change in Market A but influence the price at Market A as well, that is, the Prices between Market A and Market B have a feedback effect. It should be stressed that the limitation in data collection, which cover only two species of hairtail and squid, is likely to cause a sampling bias. Nonetheless, we may conclude that a dynamic relation in the formation of prices does exist in view of the transaction amount of species at different markets. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would not only contribute to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting among academic circle and fishing community, but would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.

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The Effect of the Shift Work on Drinking and the Mediating Effect of Sleep (교대근무가 음주에 미치는 영향 및 수면의 매개효과)

  • Jeong, Heeju;Kong, Ji-Sook;Kim, Mi Kyung;Kim, Seok Hyeon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2021
  • Objectives : Shift work has been known to cause various health problems by making it difficult for humans to adapt to their natural circadian rhythms. In particular, shift workers tend to complain of sleep difficulties associated with work schedules, and sometimes use alcohol as a self-medication to induce sleep. To date, no clear mechanism has been identified regarding the link between shift work and sleep, between shift work and drinking. This study aims to confirm the relationship between shift work and sleep, and to analyze whether the change in sleep caused by shift work causes drinking. Methods : This study included 11360 people (5704 men and 5656 women) among the Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey data in 2014, 2016 and 2018. The work type between 6am-6pm was defined as day work, and other work types were defined as shift work. Using logistic regression analysis, the relationship between shift work and sleep quality, shift work and high risk drinking, drinking amount at 1 time, drinking frequency were analyzed. In addition, we analyzed whether sleep mediates the relationship between shift work and drinking using mediated analysis. Results : Shift work showed a significant negative relationship with sleep quality in men and women (male OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.11-1.70, female OR=1.26, 95% CI=1.05-1.50). There was no significant relationship between shift work and alcohol in the case of men, but in the case of women, there was a significant positive relationship between shift work and the number of alcohol consumption (OR=1.34, 95% CI=1.04-1.72). When mediation analysis was conducted, it was found that women's sleep quality partially mediated the relationship between shift work and the frequency of drinking. Conclusions : The results of this study suggest that shift work causes sleep difficulties, and in the case of women, drinking can be induced through the partial mediating effect of sleep. Considering that women are more likely to choose drinking as a coping method for sleep problems, more active interventions for female shift workers are needed.