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A Study on Knowledge Entity Extraction Method for Individual Stocks Based on Neural Tensor Network (뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 기반 주식 개별종목 지식개체명 추출 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Yunseok;Lee, Hyun Jun;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2019
  • Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.

Antimicrobial, Antioxidant and Cellular Protective Effects against Oxidative Stress of Anemarrhena asphodeloides Bunge Extract and Fraction (지모 뿌리 추출물과 분획물의 항균활성과 항산화 활성 및 세포보호 연구)

  • Lee, Yun Ju;Song, Ba Reum;Lee, Sang Lae;Shin, Hyuk Soo;Park, Soo Nam
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.360-371
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    • 2018
  • Extracts and fractions of Anemarrhena asphodeloides Bunge were prepared and their physiological activities and components were analyzed. Antimicrobial activities of the ethyl acetate and aglycone fractions were $78{\mu}g/ml$ and $31{\mu}g/ml$, respectively, for Staphylococcus aureus and $156{\mu}g/ml$ and $125{\mu}g/ml$, respectively, for Pseudomonas aeruginosa. 1,1-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl free radical scavenging activities ($FSC_{50}$) of 50% ethanol extract, ethyl acetate fraction, and aglycone fraction of A. asphodeloides extracts were $146.2{\mu}g/ml$, $23.19{\mu}g/ml$, and $71.06{\mu}g/ml$, respectively. The total antioxidant capacity ($OSC_{50}$) in an $Fe^{3+}$-EDTA/hydrogen peroxide ($H_2O_2$) system were $17.5{\mu}g/ml$, $1.5{\mu}g/ml$, and $1.4{\mu}g/ml$, respectively. The cytoprotective effect (${\tau}_{50}$) in $^1O_2$-induced erythrocyte hemolysis was 181 min with $4{\mu}g/ml$ of the aglycone fraction. The ${\tau}_{50}$ of the aglycone fraction was approximately 4-times higher than that of (+)-${\alpha}$-tocopherol (${\tau}_{50}$, 41 min). Analysis of $H_2O_2$-induced damage of HaCaT cells revealed that the maximum cell viabilities for the 50% ethanol extract, ethyl acetate fraction, and aglycone fraction were 86.23%, 86.59%, and 89.70%, respectively. The aglycone fraction increased cell viability up to 11.53% at $1{\mu}g/ml$ compared to the positive control treated with $H_2O_2$. Analysis of ultraviolet B radiation-induced HaCaT cell damage revealed up to 41.77% decreased intracellular reactive oxygen species in the $2{\mu}g/ml$ aglycone fraction compared with the positive control treated with ultraviolet B radiation. The findings suggest that the extracts and fractions of A. asphodeloides Bunge have potential applications in the field of cosmetics as natural preservatives and antioxidants.

A Study on Estimating Shear Strength of Continuum Rock Slope (연속체 암반비탈면의 강도정수 산정 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Lee, Su-gon;Lee, Byok-Kyu;Woo, Jae-Gyung;Hur, Ik;Lee, Jun-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2019
  • Considering the natural phenomenon in which steep slopes ($65^{\circ}{\sim}85^{\circ}$) consisting of rock mass remain stable for decades, slopes steeper than 1:0.5 (the standard of slope angle for blast rock) may be applied in geotechnical conditions which are similar to those above at the design and initial construction stages. In the process of analysing the stability of a good to fair continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope, a general method of estimating rock mass strength properties from design practice perspective was required. Practical and genealized engineering methods of determining the properties of a rock mass are important for a good continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope. The Genealized Hoek-Brown (H-B) failure criterion and GSI (Geological Strength Index), which were revised and supplemented by Hoek et al. (2002), were assessed as rock mass characterization systems fully taking into account the effects of discontinuities, and were widely utilized as a method for calculating equivalent Mohr-Coulomb shear strength (balancing the areas) according to stress changes. The concept of calculating equivalent M-C shear strength according to the change of confining stress range was proposed, and on a slope, the equivalent shear strength changes sensitively with changes in the maximum confining stress (${{\sigma}^{\prime}}_{3max}$ or normal stress), making it difficult to use it in practical design. In this study, the method of estimating the strength properties (an iso-angle division method) that can be applied universally within the maximum confining stress range for a good to fair continuum rock mass slope is proposed by applying the H-B failure criterion. In order to assess the validity and applicability of the proposed method of estimating the shear strength (A), the rock slope, which is a study object, was selected as the type of rock (igneous, metamorphic, sedimentary) on the steep slope near the existing working design site. It is compared and analyzed with the equivalent M-C shear strength (balancing the areas) proposed by Hoek. The equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method and iso-angle division method was estimated using the RocLab program (geotechnical properties calculation software based on the H-B failure criterion (2002)) by using the basic data of the laboratory rock triaxial compression test at the existing working design site and the face mapping of discontinuities on the rock slope of study area. The calculated equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method was interlinked to show very large or small cohesion and internal friction angles (generally, greater than $45^{\circ}$). The equivalent M-C shear strength of the iso-angle division is in-between the equivalent M-C shear properties of the balancing the areas, and the internal friction angles show a range of $30^{\circ}$ to $42^{\circ}$. We compared and analyzed the shear strength (A) of the iso-angle division method at the study area with the shear strength (B) of the existing working design site with similar or the same grade RMR each other. The application of the proposed iso-angle division method was indirectly evaluated through the results of the stability analysis (limit equilibrium analysis and finite element analysis) applied with these the strength properties. The difference between A and B of the shear strength is about 10%. LEM results (in wet condition) showed that Fs (A) = 14.08~58.22 (average 32.9) and Fs (B) = 18.39~60.04 (average 32.2), which were similar in accordance with the same rock types. As a result of FEM, displacement (A) = 0.13~0.65 mm (average 0.27 mm) and displacement (B) = 0.14~1.07 mm (average 0.37 mm). Using the GSI and Hoek-Brown failure criterion, the significant result could be identified in the application evaluation. Therefore, the strength properties of rock mass estimated by the iso-angle division method could be applied with practical shear strength.

Experimental investigation of the photoneutron production out of the high-energy photon fields at linear accelerator (고에너지 방사선치료 시 치료변수에 따른 광중성자 선량 변화 연구)

  • Kim, Yeon Su;Yoon, In Ha;Bae, Sun Myeong;Kang, Tae Young;Baek, Geum Mun;Kim, Sung Hwan;Nam, Uk Won;Lee, Jae Jin;Park, Yeong Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : Photoneutron dose in high-energy photon radiotherapy at linear accelerator increase the risk for secondary cancer. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the dose variation of photoneutron with different treatment method, flattening filter, dose rate and gantry angle in radiation therapy with high-energy photon beam ($E{\geq}8MeV$). Materials and Methods : TrueBeam $ST{\time}TM$(Ver1.5, Varian, USA) and Korea Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (KTEPC) were used to detect the photoneutron dose out of the high-energy photon field. Complex Patient plans using Eclipse planning system (Version 10.0, Varian, USA) was used to experiment with different treatment technique(IMRT, VMAT), condition of flattening filter and three different dose rate. Scattered photoneutron dose was measured at eight different gantry angles with open field (Field size : $5{\time}5cm$). Results : The mean values of the detected photoneutron dose from IMRT and VMAT were $449.7{\mu}Sv$, $2940.7{\mu}Sv$. The mean values of the detected photoneutron dose with Flattening Filter(FF) and Flattening Filter Free(FFF) were measured as $2940.7{\mu}Sv$, $232.0{\mu}Sv$. The mean values of the photoneutron dose for each test plan (case 1, case 2 and case 3) with FFF at the three different dose rate (400, 1200, 2400 MU/min) were $3242.5{\mu}Sv$, $3189.4{\mu}Sv$, $3191.2{\mu}Sv$ with case 1, $3493.2{\mu}Sv$, $3482.6{\mu}Sv$, $3477.2{\mu}Sv$ with case 2 and $4592.2{\mu}Sv$, $4580.0{\mu}Sv$, $4542.3{\mu}Sv$ with case 3, respectively. The mean values of the photoneutron dose at eight different gantry angles ($0^{\circ}$, $45^{\circ}$, $90^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$, $180^{\circ}$, $225^{\circ}$, $270^{\circ}$, $315^{\circ}$) were measured as $3.2{\mu}Sv$, $4.3{\mu}Sv$, $5.3{\mu}Sv$, $11.3{\mu}Sv$, $14.7{\mu}Sv$, $11.2{\mu}Sv$, $3.7{\mu}Sv$, $3.0{\mu}Sv$ at 10MV and as $373.7{\mu}Sv$, $369.6{\mu}Sv$, $384.4{\mu}Sv$, $423.6{\mu}Sv$, $447.1{\mu}Sv$, $448.0{\mu}Sv$, $384.5{\mu}Sv$, $377.3{\mu}Sv$ at 15MV. Conclusion : As a result, it is possible to reduce photoneutron dose using FFF mode and VMAT method with TrueBeam $ST{\time}TM$. The risk for secondary cancer of the patients will be decreased with continuous evaluation of the photoneutron dose.

A Study on Labor Saving in Paddy Rice Cultivation (논벼재배에 있어서의 노동력 절감에 관한 연구)

  • Young-Chul Chang
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.11
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    • pp.81-97
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    • 1972
  • Experiments and investigations were done basically and practically for the purpose of labor saving in paddy rice cultivation especially on Homizil i.e. hoeing and herbicide, 1969. 8 concrete tanks were established on the open base of Keon Kuk University for comparison of percolation, dissolved oxygen and yield test of rice in the paddy plot of tank. The dimension of the bottom of each tank is square meter. Each of the 4 of the 8 tanks is 21cm in height and each of the remaining 4 tanks is 36cm. Each tank has a system that comprises 2 sets of tubes, each of which has 20 holes of 5mm in diameter scattered every side and is covered with nylon cloth taking water in the tank. One set consists of 4 P.V.C tubes. The first set is situated 8cm below the top of the tank and the second set is located at bottom layer inside the tank. The 4 tubes of each set are combined together and led to the glass tube which protects from inside to outside. And this inside-outside glass tube is connected to the small rubber tube. Also a glass tube is set 4cm below the top of the tank. Paddy loam was filled on sand in each of the tanks in the soil depth of either 15cm or 30cm. The depth of sand was 5cm in the soil depth of 15cm and 10cm in the soil depth of 30cm. (Fig. 1, 2 and 3). The paddy rice was grown in the tank. The percolation of water, the dissolved oxygen and the yield of rice were observed in the tank. And the dissolved oxygen was detected by Winkler method. A sandy paddy field of heavy percolation was selected at the field of the National Agricultural Material Inspection Center in Seoul. It was divided into 9 plots. These plots were given 3 treatments: (A) not hoeing, (B) hoeing one time and (C) hoeing two times. These treatments were replicated 3 times along the latin square design. The paddy rice was grown and sprayed with Stam F-34 in the all plots for the purpose of killing weeds before hoeing. The two types of paddy of field i.e. one for normal percolation and the other for ill drainage were selected at Iri Crop Experiment Station, Jeonla-Bukdo. Each field was divided into 24 plots for 8 treatments. They are: (A) not hoeing; (B) hoeing one time; (C) hoeing two times; (D) not hoeing but treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (E) hoeing one time and weeding two times also treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (F) hoeing two times and weeding one time a], o treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (G) hoeing two times and weeding two times also treating with herbicide, Pamcon, ; (H) usual manner. The labor hours and expenses needed for weeding in the paddy by hoeing were investigated in a farmer at Suwon and the price of herbicide and the yield of rice were taken out at Iri, Jeonla-Bukdo. The results obtained from the above experiments and investigations are as follows: 1. The relationship between percolation and dissolved oxygen shows that a very small amount of oxygen is detected in the soil water under 2cm below surface of earth in the paddy even when percolation is over 4.0cm per 24 hours (Tab. 1). 2. The relationship between percolation and yield of rice shows that the yield of rice increases in the percolation of 0cm and 1.5cm per 24 hours and decreases in the percolation of 2.5cm and 3.4cm in the plot of the 15cm ploughing depth and increases in the percolation of 1.4cm and 3.0cm and decreases in the percolation of 0cm and 4.0cm in the plot of 30cm ploughing depth (Tab. 1 and Fig. 5). 3. The yield of paddy weeded with Stam F-34 in the sandy field of heavy percolation in Seoul was 3.02 tons in the plot of not hoeing, 2.99 tons in hoeing one time and 3.05 tons in hoeing two times per hectare (Tab. 5). 4.1). 4. 1) The yield of rice per 10 ares in the field of normal percolation at Iri was 338kg in not hoeing, 379kg in hoeing one time, 383kg in hoeing two times, 413kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and not hoeing, 433kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing one time and weeding two times, 399kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding one time, 420kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding two times and 418kg in usual manner (Tab. 6-1). 2) The yield of rice per 10 ares in the field of ill drainage at Iri was 323kg in not hoeing, 363kg in hoeing one time, 342kg in hoeing two times, 388kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and not hoeing, 425kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing one time and weeding two times, 427kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding one time, 449kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding two times and 412kg in usual manner (Tab. 6-2). 5. 1) The labor hours for weeding by hoeing was 37.1 hours but 53.5 hours if hours for meal, smoking and so on are included, and the expenses including labor cost needed for weeding by hoeing in the paddy rice was 2, 346 Won per 10 ares at Suwon (Tab. 7). 2) The labor hours for weeding by spraying herbicide with hand sprayer in the paddy rice was about 5 hours per 10 ares at Suwon and the expenses for weeding by spraying herbicide in the paddy rice was 750 Won but 1130 Won if the loss by decrement of rice in the paddy field of ill drainage per 10 ares is calculated in estimation at Iri (Tab. 8). From these observations and investigations it is known that using of some kinds of herbicides Saves labor and expenses of weeding, almost without giving damages to the rice itself, in the field of normal or heavy percolation comparing usual manner of hoeing.

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Ecological Studies on the Transition of Sheath Blight of Rice in Korea (한국(韓國)에서의 벼 잎집무늬마름병 발생변동(發生變動)에 관(關)한 생태학적(生態學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Yu, Seung-hun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.283-316
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    • 1977
  • In an attempt to obtain a basic information to develop an effective integrated system of controlling sheath blight of rice in Korea, the transition of this disease, the variation of cultural characters and pathogenicity of the pathogen, environmental conditions affecting the disease outbreak and varietal resistance have been investigated. 1. Rice sheath blight which has been minor disease in the past was widely spread, especially since 1971. This disease has promptly spread all over the country and infected 65.2% of total rice growing area in 1976. Various factors are considered to be related to such transition of this disease. Above all, increace of application of nitrogenous fertilizer, early season and earlier cultivation of rice, introduction of more susceptible "Tongil" varieties etc. must be important factors influencing the outbreak of this disease. 2. Great variations in cultural characteristics-such as mycelial growth rate, color of the medium, amount of the aerial mycelium, shape and color of the sclerotia- and in the pathogenicity of isolates of the pathogen, Thanatephorus cucumeris Dank were observed. The optimum temperature for mycelial growth also varied with isolates, from $25^{\circ}C$ to $30^{\circ}C$. There were not necessarily any correlation between curtural characteristics and pathogenicity of isolates of Thanatephorus cucumens. 3. Mycelial grow th of isolates of Thanatephorus cucumens on the PDA medium were correlated with the air temperatures of the region where the isolates were collected. The isolates from the regions with high temperature grew well on PDA medium at $35^{\circ}C$ than those from the region with low temperature, on the other hand, the isolates from the regions with the low temperature grew well on the same medium at $12^{\circ}C$ than those from the regions with high temperature. 4. Pectin polygalacturonase (PG) and cellulase (Cx) were most active on the 3rd day after inoculation on the leaves of rice plant with Thanatephorus cucumeris, whereas pectin methylestrase (PE) was most active on the 4th day after inoculation. Relationship between the activities of PE of isolates and the strength of pathogenicity of isolates was obtained, but PG and cellulase activities were not correlated with pathogenicity of isolates. 5. The tolerence of sclerotia from in-vitro culture to low temperature varied with their water content, the dried cultural sclerotia were more tolerent than wet ones, Dried cultural sclerotia maintained almost 100% germinability for 45 days at $-20^{\circ}C$, whereas wet sclerotia lost viability at $-5^{\circ}C$. The germination ratio of the sclerotia after overwintering changed from 18% to 70% according to the water content of the test paddy fields and the ratio was low in wet paddy condition. 6. To investigate the host range of this fungi in and near paddy field, 17 weeds were inoculated with fungi. The lesions of sheath blight disease was obserbed on Sagittaria trifolia L., Echinochloa crusgalli P. Beauv., Monochoria vaginal is Presl, Polygonum Hydropiper L., Eclipta prostrata L., Digitaria sanguinalis Scapoli. 7. When the level of nitrogen applied was doubled over standard level, total nitrogen content in rice sheath increased, ami when silicate was applied, starch content in rice sheath decreased, inducing the rice plants more susceptible to sheath blight disease. Increased dressing of potash ferilizer reduced the incidence of sheat blight disease. 8. The percentage of infected stems in the early period increased more in the narrow hill plot than in the wide hill plot, but in the late period this tendency was inversed; the percentage of infected stems as well as severity in the wide hill plot increased more compared to the narrow hill plot, and the disease severity in the one plant per hill plot was also low. The number of stems in the wide hill plot was more than the number of stems in the narrow hill plot. This indicates that the microclimate, such as the relative humidity, in the narrow hill plot was more favorable for the development of this disease. 9. There was a high negative correlation between the disease severity of varieties to the sheath blight and the maturity of the varieties, that is, the early varieties were more susceptible than the late ones, and much-tillering varieties usually showed more infection than less tillering varieties. 10. No relationship was obtained between the percentage of infected stems in the early period and the severity after heading, whereas a distinct relationship was obtained between former and latter after Aug. 10.

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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