• Title/Summary/Keyword: temperature prediction model

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Analysis and Prediction for Spatial Distribution of Functional Feeding Groups of Aquatic Insects in the Geum River (금강 수계 수서곤충 섭식기능군의 공간분포 분석 및 예측)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Park, Young-Jun;Nam, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to define a correlation between spatial distribution characteristics of FFG(Functional Feeding Groups) of aquatic insects and related environmental factors in the Geum River based on the theory of RCC(River Continuum Concept). For that objective we had used SMRA(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis) method to analyze close relationship between the distribution of aquatic insects and the physical and chemical factors that may affect their inhabiting environment in the study area. And then, a probabilistic method named Frequency Ratio Model(FRM) and spatial analysis function of GIS were applied to produce a predictive distribution map of biota community considering their distribution characteristics according to the environmental factors as related variables. As a result of SMRA, the values of decision coefficient for factors of elevation, stream width, flow velocity, conductivity, temperature and percentage of sand showed higher than 0.5. Therefore these 6 environmental factors were considered as major factors that might affect the distribution characteristics of aquatic insects. Finally, we had calculated RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between the predicted distribution map and prior survey database from other researches to verify the result of this study. The values of RMSE were calculated from 0.1892 to 0.4242 according to each FFG so we could find out a high reliability of this study. The results of this study might be used to develop a new estimation method for aquatic ecosystem with macro invertebrate community and also be used as preliminary data for conservation and restoration of stream habitats.

Kinetic Modelling for the Prediction of Shelf-life of Kimchi Based on Total Acidity as a Quility Index (총산도를 기준한 김치의 품질수명 예측모델 연구)

  • Lee, Kwang-Hyuck;Cho, Hyung-Yong;Pyun, Yu-Ryang
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.306-310
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    • 1991
  • A simplified mathematical model to estimate changes in total acidity of Chinese cabbage kimchi during fermentation was developed as a function of temperature and salt concentration. Assuming that tolerable acceptability reached at 0.75% total acidity, the shelf-life of kimchi was predicted by the model. The predicted value was in good agreement with the actual shelf-life measured by organoleptic tests.

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Analysis of Carbonization Behavior of Hydrochar Produced by Hydrothermal Carbonization of Lignin and Development of a Prediction Model for Carbonization Degree Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (열수 탄화 공정을 거친 리그닌 하이드로차(hydrochar)의 탄화 거동 분석과 근적외선 분광법을 이용한 예측 모델 개발)

  • HWANG, Un Taek;BAE, Junsoo;LEE, Taekyeong;HWANG, Sung-Yun;KIM, Jong-Chan;PARK, Jinseok;CHOI, In-Gyu;KWAK, Hyo Won;HWANG, Sung-Wook;YEO, Hwanmyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we investigated the carbonization characteristics of lignin hydrochar prepared by hydrothermal carbonization and established a model for predicting the carbonization degree using near-infrared spectroscopy and partial least squares regression. The carbon content of the hydrothermally carbonized lignin at the temperature of 200 ℃ was higher by approximately 3 wt% than that of the untreated sample, and the carbon content tended to gradually increase as the heating time increased. Hydrothermal carbonization made lignin more carbon-intensive and more homogeneous by eliminating the microparticles. The discriminant and predictive models using near-infrared spectroscopy and partial least squares regression approppriately determined whether hydrothermal carbonization has been applied and predicted the carbon content of hydrothermal carbonized lignin with high accuracy. In this study, we confirmed that we can quickly and nondestructively predict the carbonization characteristics of lignin hydrochar manufactured by hydrothermal carbonization using a partial least squares regression model combined with near-infrared spectroscopy.

A Numerical Study on the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Building Fires Using GIS and a CFD Model (GIS와 전산유체역학 모델을 이용한 기상 조건이 건물 화재에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Mun, Da-Som;Kim, Min-Ji;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.395-408
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we investigated the effects of wind speed and direction on building fires using GIS and a CFD model. We conducted numerical simulations for a fire event that occurred at an apartment in Ulsan on October 8, 2020. For realistic simulations, we used the profiles of wind speeds and directions and temperatures predicted by the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS). First, using the realistic boundary conditions, we conducted two numerical simulations (a control run, CNTL, considered the building fire and the other assumed the same conditions as CNTL except for the building fire). Then, we conducted the additional four simulations with the same conditions as CNTL except for the inflow wind speeds and direction. When the ignition point was located on the windward of the building, strong updraft induced by the fire had a wide impact on the building roof and downwind region. The evacuation floor (15th floor) played a role to spread fire to the downwind wall of the building. The weaker the wind speed, the narrower fire spread around the ignition point, but the higher the flame above the building reaches. When the ignition point was located on the downwind wall of the building, the flame didn't spread to the upwind wall of the building. The results showed that wind speed and direction were important for the flow and temperature (or flame) distribution around a firing building.

Prediction of Chinese Cabbage Yield as Affected by Planting Date and Nitrogen Fertilization for Spring Production (정식시기와 질소시비 수준에 따른 봄배추의 생육량 추정)

  • Lee, Sang Gyu;Seo, Tae Cheol;Jang, Yoon Ah;Lee, Jun Gu;Nam, Chun Woo;Choi, Chang Sun;Yeo, Kyung-Hwan;Um, Young Chul
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.271-275
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    • 2012
  • The average annual and winter ambient air temperatures in Korea have risen by $0.7^{\circ}C$ and $1.4^{\circ}C$, respectively, during the last 30 years. The continuous rise in temperature presents a challenge in growing certain horticultural crops. Chinese cabbage, one most important cool season crop, may well be used as a model to study the influence of climate change on plant growth, because it is more adversely affected by elevated temperatures than warm season crops. This study examined the influence of transplanting time, nitrogen fertilizer level and climate parameters, including air temperature and growing degree days (GDD), on the performance of a Chinese cabbage cultivar (Chunkwang) during the spring growing season to estimate crop yield under the unfavorable environmental conditions. The chinese cabbage plants were transplanted from Apr. 8 to May 13, 2011 when 3~4 leaves were occurred, at internals of 7 days and cultivated with 3 levels of nitrogen fertilization. The data from plants transplanted on Apr. 22 and 29, 2012 were used for the prediction of yield as affected by planting date and nitrogen fertilization for spring production. In our study, plant dry weight was higher when the seedlings were transplanted on 15th (168 g) than on 22nd (139 g) of April. There was no significant difference in the yield when plants were grown with different levels of nitrogen fertilizer. The values of correlation coefficient ($R^2$) between GDD and number of leaves, and between GDD and dry weight of the above-ground plant parts were 0.9818 and 0.9584, respectively. Nitrogen fertilizer did not provide a good correlation with the plant growth. Results of this study suggest that the GDD values can be used as a good indicator in predicting the top biomass yield of Chinese cabbage.

Numerical analysis of FEBEX at Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland (스위스 Grimsel Test Site에서 수행된 FEBEX 현장시험에 대한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Changsoo;Lee, Jaewon;Kim, Geon-Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.359-381
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    • 2020
  • Within the framework of DECOVALEX-2019 Task D, full-scale engineered barriers experiment (FEBEX) at Grimsel Test Site was numerically simulated to investigate an applicability of implemented Barcelona basic model (BBM) into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D simulator, which was developed for the prediction of the coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior of bentonite buffer. And the calculated heater power, temperature, relative humidity, total stress, saturation, water content and dry density were compared with in situ data monitored in the various sections. In general, the calculated heater power and temperature provided a fairly good agreement with experimental observations, however, the difference between power of heater #1 and that of heater #2 could not captured in the numerical analysis. It is necessary to consider lamprophyre with low thermal conductivity around heater #1 and non-simplified installation progresses of bentonite blocks in the tunnel for better modeling results. The evolutions and distributions of relative humidity were well reproduced, but hydraulic model needs to be modified because the re-saturation process was relatively fast near the heaters. In case of stress evolutions due to the thermal and hydraulic expansions, the computed stress was in good agreement with the data. But, the stress is slightly higher than the measured in situ data at the early stage of the operation, because gap between rock mass and bentonite blocks have not been considered in the numerical simulations. The calculated distribution of saturation, water content, and dry density along the radial distance showed good agreement with the observations after the first and final dismantling. The calculated dry density near the center of the FEBEX tunnel and heaters were overestimated compared with the observations. As a result, the saturation and water content were underestimated with the measurements. Therefore, numerical model of permeability is needed to modify for the production of better numerical results. It will be possible to produce the better analysis results and more realistically predict the coupled THM behavior in the bentonite blocks by performing the additional studies and modifying the numerical model based on the results of this study.

Agro-Climatic Indices Changes over the Korean Peninsula in CO2 Doubled Climate Induced by Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Coupled General Circulation Model (대기-해양-지면-해빙 접합 대순환 모형으로 모의된 이산화탄소 배증시 한반도 농업기후지수 변화 분석)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hong, Ja-Young;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2010
  • According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report, concentration of carbon dioxide has been increasing by 30% since Industrial Revolution. Most of IPCC $CO_2$ emission scenarios estimate that the concentration will reach up to double of its present level within 100-year if the current tendency continues. The global warming has resulted in the agro-climate change over the Korean Peninsula as well. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the future agro-climate induced by the increase of greenhouse gases in terms of the agro-climatic indices in the Korean peninsula. In this study, the future climate is simulated by an atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice coupled general circulation climate model, Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model(hereafter, PNU CGCM), and by a regional weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model(hereafter, WRF) for the purpose of a dynamical downscaling. The changes of the vegetable period and the crop growth period, defined as the total number of days of a year exceeding daily mean temperature of 5 and 10, respectively, have been analyzed. Our results estimate that the beginning date of vegetable and crop growth periods get earlier by 3.7 and 17 days, respectively, in spring under the $CO_2$-doubled climate. In most of the Korean peninsula, the predicted frost days in spring decrease by 10 days. Climatic production index (CPI), which closely represent the productivity of rice, tends to increase in the double $CO_2$ climate. Thus, it is suggested that the future $CO_2$ doubled climate might be favorable for crops due to the decrease of frost days in spring, and increased temperature and insolation during the heading date as we expect from the increased CPI.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Prediction of Growth of Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in Lettuce Treated with Alkaline Electrolyzed Water at Different Temperatures

  • Ding, Tian;Jin, Yong-Guo;Rahman, S.M.E.;Kim, Jai-Moung;Choi, Kang-Hyun;Choi, Gye-Sun;Oh, Deog-Hwan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.232-237
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develop a model for describing the effect of storage temperature (4, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and $35^{\circ}C$) on the growth of Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in ready-to-eat (RTE) lettuce treated with or without (control) alkaline electrolyzed water (AIEW). The growth curves were well fitted with the Gompertz equation, which was used to determine the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) of E. coli O157 : H7 ($R^2$ = 0.994). Results showed that the obtained SGR and LT were dependent on the storage temperature. The growth rate increased with increasing temperature from 4 to $35^{\circ}C$. The square root models were used to evaluate the effect of storage temperature on the growth of E. coli O157 : H7 in lettuce samples treated without or with AIEW. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$), adjusted determination coefficient ($R^2_{Adj}$), and mean square error (MSE) were employed to validate the established models. It showed that $R^2$ and $R^_{Adj}$ were close to 1 (> 0.93), and MSE calculated from models of untreated and treated lettuce were 0.031 and 0.025, respectively. The results demonstrated that the overall predictions of the growth of E. coli O157: H7 agreed with the observed data.

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.