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The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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Analysis of the Effects of E-commerce User Ratings and Review Helfulness on Performance Improvement of Product Recommender System (E-커머스 사용자의 평점과 리뷰 유용성이 상품 추천 시스템의 성능 향상에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • FAN, LIU;Lee, Byunghyun;Choi, Ilyoung;Jeong, Jaeho;Kim, Jaekyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.311-328
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    • 2022
  • Because of the spread of smartphones due to the development of information and communication technology, online shopping mall services can be used on computers and mobile devices. As a result, the number of users using the online shopping mall service increases rapidly, and the types of products traded are also growing. Therefore, to maximize profits, companies need to provide information that may interest users. To this end, the recommendation system presents necessary information or products to the user based on the user's past behavioral data or behavioral purchase records. Representative overseas companies that currently provide recommendation services include Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube. These companies support users' purchase decisions by recommending products to users using ratings, purchase records, and clickstream data that users give to the items. In addition, users refer to the ratings left by other users about the product before buying a product. Most users tend to provide ratings only to products they are satisfied with, and the higher the rating, the higher the purchase intention. And recently, e-commerce sites have provided users with the ability to vote on whether product reviews are helpful. Through this, the user makes a purchase decision by referring to reviews and ratings of products judged to be beneficial. Therefore, in this study, the correlation between the product rating and the helpful information of the review is identified. The valuable data of the evaluation is reflected in the recommendation system to check the recommendation performance. In addition, we want to compare the results of skipping all the ratings in the traditional collaborative filtering technique with the recommended performance results that reflect only the 4 and 5 ratings. For this purpose, electronic product data collected from Amazon was used in this study, and the experimental results confirmed a correlation between ratings and review usefulness information. In addition, as a result of comparing the recommendation performance by reflecting all the ratings and only the 4 and 5 points in the recommendation system, the recommendation performance of remembering only the 4 and 5 points in the recommendation system was higher. In addition, as a result of reflecting review usefulness information in the recommendation system, it was confirmed that the more valuable the review, the higher the recommendation performance. Therefore, these experimental results are expected to improve the performance of personalized recommendation services in the future and provide implications for e-commerce sites.

Studying the Differences in the Effects of Theoretical and Practical, Face-to-face and Virtual Teaching Methods on Entrepreneurship and Willingness to Start a Business: University Students During the Coronavirus Pandemic (이론 및 실습, 대면 및 비대면 교육 방식이 기업가정신과 창업의지에 미치는 효과 차이 연구: 코로나 펜데믹 상황의 대학생들을 대상으로)

  • Park, Mijung;Lee, Cheolgyu;Hwangbo, Yun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.81-96
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the differences in the effects on entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial willingness of college students under the coronavirus pandemic by dividing theoretical education into practical education, face-to-face education, and non-face-to-face education, and analyzed the differences in the effects on entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship willingness according to the education method. This study conducted entrepreneurship education for 552 students at a comprehensive university in Chungcheong-do, Korea, and analyzed the sample by dividing it into theoretical and practical education, face-to-face education, and non-face-to-face education. In addition, a two-way repeated measures ANOVA was conducted to determine whether there were differences in the entrepreneurship education course operation form according to the pre- and post-education time points. The results showed that, first, the difference between the effectiveness of entrepreneurship education before and after theoretical and practical education was significant, and the entrepreneurship of practical education was higher than that of theoretical education after education. In the test of pre- and post-training differences in entrepreneurial intention, the difference in effectiveness was significant only in practical training. Second, the results of the repeated measures ANOVA analysis of the course operation type of theoretical and practical courses according to the difference between the pre- and post-education time points showed that there were differences in the entrepreneurship effectiveness of theoretical and practical courses according to the time point of education. Third, the difference in the effectiveness of entrepreneurship education according to face-to-face and non-face-to-face education was significant, and only the effect of non-face-to-face education on entrepreneurial intention was significant before and after education. Fourth, the results of repeated measures ANOVA analysis of face-to-face and non-face-to-face course operation type showed that the effect of face-to-face and non-face-to-face entrepreneurship education differed depending on the time of education. The pre-post difference in entrepreneurial intention was significant only for the non-face-to-face program. The implication of this study is that in order to increase the effectiveness of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial will among university students, it is necessary to expand the amount of practical classes in which students actively participate in activities related to entrepreneurship. In addition, in order to increase the effectiveness of entrepreneurial will, a non-face-to-face education method that utilizes the metaverse space and increases the role of each student can contribute to increasing the effectiveness of entrepreneurial will.

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Research on the Measures and Driving Force behind the Three Major Works of Daesoon Jinrihoe in North Korea in Case of the Respective Types of Unification on the Korean Peninsula (한반도 통일 유형별 북한지역의 대순진리회 3대 중요사업 추진 여건과 방안 연구)

  • Park, Young-taek
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.39
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    • pp.137-174
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    • 2021
  • The main theme of this paper centers on how to promote Three Major Works of Daesoon Jinrihoe, charity aid, social welfare, and education projects, during the unification period. Determining the best methods of promotion is crucial because the Three Major Works must be carried out after unification, and the works must remain based on the practice of the philosophy of Haewon-sangsaeng (the Resolution of Grievances for Mutual Beneficence). The idea of Haewon-sangsaeng is in line with the preface of the U.N. Charter and the aim of world peace. North Korean residents are suffering from starvation under their devastated economy, which is certain to face a crisis of materialistic deficiency during reunification. In this study, the peaceful unification of Germany, unification under a period of sudden changes in Yemen, and the militarized unification of Vietnam were taken as case studies to diagnose and analyze the conditions which would affect the implementation of the Three Major Works. These three styles of unification commonly required a considerable budget and other forms of support to carry out the Three Major Works. Especially if unification were to occur after a period of sudden changes, this would require solutions to issues of food, shelter, and medical support due to the loss of numerous lives and the destruction of infrastructure. On the other hand, the UNHCR model was analyzed to determine the implications of expanding mental well prepared and sufficiently qualified professionals, reorganizing standard organizations within complex situations, task direction, preparing sufficient relief goods, budgeting, securing bases in border areas with North Korea, and establishing networks for sponsorship. Based on this, eight detailed tasks in the field of system construction could be used by the operators of the Three Major Works to prepare for unification. Additionally, nine tasks for review were presented in consideration of the timing of unification and the current situation between South and North Korea. In conclusion, in the event of unification, the Three Major Works should not be neglected during the transition period. The manual "Three Major Works during the Unification Period" should include strategic points on organizational formation and mission implementation, forward base and base operation, security and logistics preparation, public relations and external cooperation, safety measures, and transportation and contact systems.

Machine Learning Based MMS Point Cloud Semantic Segmentation (머신러닝 기반 MMS Point Cloud 의미론적 분할)

  • Bae, Jaegu;Seo, Dongju;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.939-951
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    • 2022
  • The most important factor in designing autonomous driving systems is to recognize the exact location of the vehicle within the surrounding environment. To date, various sensors and navigation systems have been used for autonomous driving systems; however, all have limitations. Therefore, the need for high-definition (HD) maps that provide high-precision infrastructure information for safe and convenient autonomous driving is increasing. HD maps are drawn using three-dimensional point cloud data acquired through a mobile mapping system (MMS). However, this process requires manual work due to the large numbers of points and drawing layers, increasing the cost and effort associated with HD mapping. The objective of this study was to improve the efficiency of HD mapping by segmenting semantic information in an MMS point cloud into six classes: roads, curbs, sidewalks, medians, lanes, and other elements. Segmentation was performed using various machine learning techniques including random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and gradient-boosting machine (GBM), and 11 variables including geometry, color, intensity, and other road design features. MMS point cloud data for a 130-m section of a five-lane road near Minam Station in Busan, were used to evaluate the segmentation models; the average F1 scores of the models were 95.43% for RF, 92.1% for SVM, 91.05% for GBM, and 82.63% for KNN. The RF model showed the best segmentation performance, with F1 scores of 99.3%, 95.5%, 94.5%, 93.5%, and 90.1% for roads, sidewalks, curbs, medians, and lanes, respectively. The variable importance results of the RF model showed high mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease gini for XY dist. and Z dist. variables related to road design, respectively. Thus, variables related to road design contributed significantly to the segmentation of semantic information. The results of this study demonstrate the applicability of segmentation of MMS point cloud data based on machine learning, and will help to reduce the cost and effort associated with HD mapping.

A study of the income inequality of the aged in OECD 10 countries - Focusing on the life course perspective (OECD 10개국 노인의 소득불평등에 관한 연구 -생애주기관점을 중심으로-)

  • Ji, Eun Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.333-370
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    • 2011
  • This study views the aged inequalities according to the inequality hypothesis of the life course perspective in OECD 10 countries. Focusing on educational level which is early social status and welfare state regime which is social structure factors of inequality, this study analyzes income inequality for the aged who have transformed into old age period from non-aged period. The analysis is based on the data SHARE of Europe and HRS of USA. The main results of this study are summarized in four points. First, the income inequality is quite high by welfare system and the educational level. Second, the income inequality is somewhat reduced in case the people move from the period of non-aged to the period of aged. However, gini coefficient is still high(0.475). Considering welfare state regimes, although the income inequality is high in conservative regime of non-aged period, this would be higher in aged period. This result supports cumulative advantages/disadvantages hypothesis. The liberal regime remains high income inequality which supports the theoretical argument of status maintenance. Social democratic regime provides evidence to offer some support for the status leveling hypothesis. In there, income inequality is lower in aged period even though income inequality of non-aged period is low. Third, the cumulative advantages/disadvantages of disposable income according to educational level are strengthened and heterogeneity is grown in case people transition from the late period of non-aged to aged period. But public pension has been more equally distributed than gross income. Fourth, seeing welfare state regimes, public pension of aged-period is more inequally distributed than that of non-aged period in liberal and conservative regime. Specially in conservative regime, inequality of gross income is very high and public pension is also inequally distribute So this might show that the social security system strengthens the cumulative advantages/disadvantages. However, in the social democratic regime, public pension is more equally distributed than gross income and it could be much more equally distributed in aged period, which can support the status leveling hypothesis.

Actual Conditions and Perception of Safety Accidents by School Foodservice Employees in Chungbuk (충북지역 학교급식 조리종사원의 안전사고 실태 및 인식)

  • Cho, Hyun A;Lee, Young Eun;Park, Eun Hye
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.43 no.10
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    • pp.1594-1606
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to examine safety accidents related to school foodservice, working and operating environments of school foodservice, status and awareness of safety education, educational needs, and information on qualitative improvement of school foodservice. The subjects in this study were 234 cooks in charge of cooking at elementary and secondary schools in Chungbuk. A survey was conducted from July 30 to August 8, 2012, and among 202 questionnaires gathered, 194 completed questionnaires were analyzed. Statistical analyses were performed on data utilizing the SPSS version 19.0. The main results of this study were as follows: 44.3% of workers experienced safety accidents. The most frequent safety accident was 'once' (60.5%), and most safety accidents took place between June and August (31.4%). The time at which most safety accidents happened was between 8 and 11 am. Most safety accidents happened during cooking (52.3%) and while using a soup pot or frying pot (52.4%). The most common accidents were 'burns', 'wrist and arm pain', and 'slips and falls'. Respondents who experienced safety accidents replied that 57.6% of employees dealt with injuries at their own expense, and only 35.3% utilized industrial accident insurance. In terms of the operating environment, the score for 'offering information and application' was highest (3.76 points), whereas that for 'security of budget' was lowest (1.77 points). As for accident education, employees received safety education approximately 3.45 times and 5.10 hours per year. Improving the working environment of school foodservice cooks requires administrative and financial support. Furthermore, educational materials and guidelines based on the working environment and safety accident status of school foodservice cooks are required in order to minimize potential risk factors and control safety accidents in school foodservice.

Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

A Hybrid SVM Classifier for Imbalanced Data Sets (불균형 데이터 집합의 분류를 위한 하이브리드 SVM 모델)

  • Lee, Jae Sik;Kwon, Jong Gu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.125-140
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    • 2013
  • We call a data set in which the number of records belonging to a certain class far outnumbers the number of records belonging to the other class, 'imbalanced data set'. Most of the classification techniques perform poorly on imbalanced data sets. When we evaluate the performance of a certain classification technique, we need to measure not only 'accuracy' but also 'sensitivity' and 'specificity'. In a customer churn prediction problem, 'retention' records account for the majority class, and 'churn' records account for the minority class. Sensitivity measures the proportion of actual retentions which are correctly identified as such. Specificity measures the proportion of churns which are correctly identified as such. The poor performance of the classification techniques on imbalanced data sets is due to the low value of specificity. Many previous researches on imbalanced data sets employed 'oversampling' technique where members of the minority class are sampled more than those of the majority class in order to make a relatively balanced data set. When a classification model is constructed using this oversampled balanced data set, specificity can be improved but sensitivity will be decreased. In this research, we developed a hybrid model of support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN) and decision tree, that improves specificity while maintaining sensitivity. We named this hybrid model 'hybrid SVM model.' The process of construction and prediction of our hybrid SVM model is as follows. By oversampling from the original imbalanced data set, a balanced data set is prepared. SVM_I model and ANN_I model are constructed using the imbalanced data set, and SVM_B model is constructed using the balanced data set. SVM_I model is superior in sensitivity and SVM_B model is superior in specificity. For a record on which both SVM_I model and SVM_B model make the same prediction, that prediction becomes the final solution. If they make different prediction, the final solution is determined by the discrimination rules obtained by ANN and decision tree. For a record on which SVM_I model and SVM_B model make different predictions, a decision tree model is constructed using ANN_I output value as input and actual retention or churn as target. We obtained the following two discrimination rules: 'IF ANN_I output value <0.285, THEN Final Solution = Retention' and 'IF ANN_I output value ${\geq}0.285$, THEN Final Solution = Churn.' The threshold 0.285 is the value optimized for the data used in this research. The result we present in this research is the structure or framework of our hybrid SVM model, not a specific threshold value such as 0.285. Therefore, the threshold value in the above discrimination rules can be changed to any value depending on the data. In order to evaluate the performance of our hybrid SVM model, we used the 'churn data set' in UCI Machine Learning Repository, that consists of 85% retention customers and 15% churn customers. Accuracy of the hybrid SVM model is 91.08% that is better than that of SVM_I model or SVM_B model. The points worth noticing here are its sensitivity, 95.02%, and specificity, 69.24%. The sensitivity of SVM_I model is 94.65%, and the specificity of SVM_B model is 67.00%. Therefore the hybrid SVM model developed in this research improves the specificity of SVM_B model while maintaining the sensitivity of SVM_I model.