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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

User-Perspective Issue Clustering Using Multi-Layered Two-Mode Network Analysis (다계층 이원 네트워크를 활용한 사용자 관점의 이슈 클러스터링)

  • Kim, Jieun;Kim, Namgyu;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.93-107
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regard to user-perspective issue clustering based on multi-layered two-mode network analysis. This work is significant in the context of data collection by companies about customer needs. Most companies have failed to uncover such needs for products or services properly in terms of demographic data such as age, income levels, and purchase history. Because of excessive reliance on limited internal data, most recommendation systems do not provide decision makers with appropriate business information for current business circumstances. However, part of the problem is the increasing regulation of personal data gathering and privacy. This makes demographic or transaction data collection more difficult, and is a significant hurdle for traditional recommendation approaches because these systems demand a great deal of personal data or transaction logs. Our motivation for presenting this paper to academia is our strong belief, and evidence, that most customers' requirements for products can be effectively and efficiently analyzed from unstructured textual data such as Internet news text. In order to derive users' requirements from textual data obtained online, the proposed approach in this paper attempts to construct double two-mode networks, such as a user-news network and news-issue network, and to integrate these into one quasi-network as the input for issue clustering. One of the contributions of this research is the development of a methodology utilizing enormous amounts of unstructured textual data for user-oriented issue clustering by leveraging existing text mining and social network analysis. In order to build multi-layered two-mode networks of news logs, we need some tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used not only SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module and cluster module for textual data analysis, but also NetMiner 4 for network visualization and analysis. Our approach for user-perspective issue clustering is composed of six main phases: crawling, topic analysis, access pattern analysis, network merging, network conversion, and clustering. In the first phase, we collect visit logs for news sites by crawler. After gathering unstructured news article data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from each news article in order to build an article-news network. For simplicity, 100 topics are extracted from 13,652 articles. In the third phase, a user-article network is constructed with access patterns derived from web transaction logs. The double two-mode networks are then merged into a quasi-network of user-issue. Finally, in the user-oriented issue-clustering phase, we classify issues through structural equivalence, and compare these with the clustering results from statistical tools and network analysis. An experiment with a large dataset was performed to build a multi-layer two-mode network. After that, we compared the results of issue clustering from SAS with that of network analysis. The experimental dataset was from a web site ranking site, and the biggest portal site in Korea. The sample dataset contains 150 million transaction logs and 13,652 news articles of 5,000 panels over one year. User-article and article-issue networks are constructed and merged into a user-issue quasi-network using Netminer. Our issue-clustering results applied the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm and Multidimensional Scaling (MDS), and are consistent with the results from SAS clustering. In spite of extensive efforts to provide user information with recommendation systems, most projects are successful only when companies have sufficient data about users and transactions. Our proposed methodology, user-perspective issue clustering, can provide practical support to decision-making in companies because it enhances user-related data from unstructured textual data. To overcome the problem of insufficient data from traditional approaches, our methodology infers customers' real interests by utilizing web transaction logs. In addition, we suggest topic analysis and issue clustering as a practical means of issue identification.

Phosphorus Modified Co/Al2O3 Fischer-Tropsch Catalyst for a Slurry Phase CSTR with Enhanced Hydrothermal and Mechanical Stability (수열특성 및 기계적 안정성의 개선으로 슬러리상 CSTR에 적합한 P 첨가 알루미나 기반의 Fischer-Tropsch 합성용 코발트 촉매)

  • Jung, Gyu-In;Ha, Kyoung-Su;Park, Seon-Ju;Kim, Du-Eil;Woo, Min-Hee;Jun, Ki-Won;Bae, Jong-Wook;Kang, Yong
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.229-237
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    • 2012
  • Phosphorus was incorporated into Co/$Al_2O_3$ catalyst for FTS by impregnating an acidic precursor, phosphoric acid, in ${\gamma}-Al_2O_3$ support to improve the mechanical strength, the hydrothermal stability of the catalyst particle, and the catalytic performance as well. Surface characterization techniques such as FT-IR revealed that $AlPO_4$ phase was generated on the surface of the P-modified catalyst. The addition of phosphorus was found to alleviate the interaction between cobalt and alumina surface, and to increase reducibility of catalyst. The catalytic activity such as $C_{5+}$ productivity and turnover frequency (TOF) was calculated to evaluate catalytic performance. The influence of calcination temperature of the $Al_2O_3$ containing 2 wt.% P on the catalytic performance was also investigated. Through hydrothermal stability test and XRD analysis, the P-modified catalyst had strong resistant to the pressurized and hot $H_2O$. The mechanical strength of the P-modified catalyst was also examined through an in-house fluidized-bed vessel, and it was found that the catalyst fragmentation could be successfully suppressed with P. Taken as a whole, the best performance was shown to be at 1~2 wt.% P in alumina and at the calcination temperature of $500^{\circ}C$.

S-MADP : Service based Development Process for Mobile Applications of Medium-Large Scale Project (S-MADP : 중대형 프로젝트의 모바일 애플리케이션을 위한 서비스 기반 개발 프로세스)

  • Kang, Tae Deok;Kim, Kyung Baek;Cheng, Ki Ju
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.2 no.8
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    • pp.555-564
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    • 2013
  • Innovative evolution in mobile devices along with recent spread of Tablet PCs and Smart Phones makes a new change not only in individual life but also in enterprise applications. Especially, in the case of medium-large mobile applications for large enterprises which generally takes more than 3 months of development periods, importance and complexity increase significantly. Generally Agile-methodology is used for a development process for the medium-large scale mobile applications, but some issues arise such as high dependency on skilled developers and lack of detail development directives. In this paper, S-MADP (Smart Mobile Application Development Process) is proposed to mitigate these issues. S-MADP is a service oriented development process extending a object-oriented development process, for medium-large scale mobile applications. S-MADP provides detail development directives for each activities during the entire process for defining services as server-based or client-based and providing the way of reuse of services. Also, in order to support various user interfaces, S-MADP provides detail UI development directives. To evaluate the performance of S-MADP, three mobile application development projects were conducted and the results were analyzed. The projects are 'TBS(TB Mobile Service) 3.0' in TB company, mobile app-store in TS company, and mobile groupware in TG group. As a result of the projects, S-MADP accounts for more detailed design information about 'Minimizing the use of resources', 'Service-based designing' and 'User interface optimized for mobile devices' which are needed to be largely considered for mobile application development environment when we compare with existing Agile-methodology. Therefore, it improves the usability, maintainability, efficiency of developed mobile applications. Through field tests, it is observed that S-MADP outperforms about 25% than a Agile-methodology in the aspect of the required man-month for developing a medium-large mobile application.

Continuous Wet Oxidation of TCE over Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts (금속산화물 담지촉매상에서 연속 습식 TCE 분해반응)

  • Kim, Moon Hyeon;Choo, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.206-214
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    • 2005
  • Heterogeneously-catalyzed oxidation of aqueous phase trichloroethylene (TCE) over supported metal oxides has been conducted to establish an approach to eliminate ppm levels of organic compounds in water. A continuous flow reactor system was designed to effect predominant reaction parameters in determining catalytic activity of the catalysts for wet TCE decomposition as a model reaction. 5 wt.% $CoO_x/TiO_2$ catalyst exhibited a transient period in activity vs. on-stream time behavior, suggesting that the surface structure of the $CoO_x$ might be altered with on-stream hours; regardless, it is probable to be the most promising catalyst. Not only could the bare support be inactive for the wet decomposition reaction at $36^{\circ}C$, but no TCE removal also occurred by the process of adsorption on $TiO_2$ surface. The catalytic activity was independent of all particle sizes used, thereby representing no mass transfer limitation in intraparticle diffusion. Very low TCE conversion appeared for $TiO_2$-supported $NiO_x$ and $CrO_x$ catalysts. Wet oxidation performance of supported Cu and Fe catalysts, obtained through an incipient wetness and ion exchange technique, was dependent primarily on the kinds of the metal oxides, in addition to the acidic solid supports and the preparation routes. 5 wt.% $FeO_x/TiO_2$ catalyst gave no activity in the oxidation reaction at $36^{\circ}C$, while 1.2 wt.% Fe-MFI was active for the wet decomposition depending on time on-stream. The noticeable difference in activity of the both catalysts suggests that the Fe oxidation states involved to catalytic redox cycle during the course of reaction play a significant role in catalyzing the wet decomposition as well as in maintaining the time on-stream activity. Based on the results of different $CoO_x$ loadings and reaction temperatures for the decomposition reaction at $36^{\circ}C$ with $CoO_x/TiO_2$, the catalyst possessed an optimal $CoO_x$ amount at which higher reaction temperatures facilitated the catalytic TCE conversion. Small amounts of the active ingredient could be dissolved by acidic leaching but such a process gave no appreciable activity loss of the $CoO_x$ catalyst.

Plasma-assisted Catalysis for the Abatement of Isopropyl Alcohol over Metal Oxides (금속산화물 촉매상에서 플라즈마를 이용한 IPA 저감)

  • Jo, Jin Oh;Lee, Sang Baek;Jang, Dong Lyong;Park, Jong-Ho;Mok, Young Sun
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.375-382
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    • 2014
  • This work investigated the plasma-catalytic decomposition of isopropyl alcohol (IPA) and the behavior of the byproduct compounds over monolith-supported metal oxide catalysts. Iron oxide ($Fe_2O_3$) or copper oxide (CuO) was loaded on a monolithic porous ${\alpha}-Al_2O_3$ support, which was placed inside the coaxial electrodes of plasma reactor. The IPA decomposition efficiency itself hardly depended on the presence and type of metal oxides because the rate of plasma-induced decomposition was so fast, but the behavior of byproduct formation was largely affected by them. The concentrations of the unwanted byproducts, including acetone, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, methane, carbon monoxide, etc., were in order of $Fe_2O_3/{\alpha}-Al_2O_3$ < $CuO/{\alpha}-Al_2O_3$ < ${\alpha}-Al_2O_3$ from low to high. Under the condition (flow rate: $1L\;min^{-1}$; IPA concentration: 5,000 ppm; $O_2$ content: 10%; discharge power: 47 W), the selectivity towards $CO_2$ was about 40, 80 and 95% for ${\alpha}-Al_2O_3$, $CuO/{\alpha}-Al_2O_3$ and $Fe_2O_3/{\alpha}-Al_2O_3$, respectively, indicating that $Fe_2O_3/{\alpha}-Al_2O_3$ is the most effective for plasma-catalytic oxidation of IPA. Unlike plasma-alone processes in which tar-like products formed from volatile organic compounds are deposited, the present plasma-catalyst hybrid system did not exhibit such a phenomenon, thus retaining the original catalytic activity.

A Study on Analysis of Investment Effects of Farm Mechanization, Korea -Mainly on the Case Study of Saemaeul Farm Mechanization Groups in Nonsan Area, Chungnam Province- (농업기계화(農業機械化)의 투자효과분석(投資效果分析)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -충남논산지역(忠南論山地域) 새마을 기계화영농단(機械化營農團)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Gwan Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.164-185
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    • 1987
  • The Korean economy has been developed rapidly in the course of implementing the five year economic development plans since 1962. Accordingly the industrial and employment structure have been changed from the traditional agriculture to modem industrial economy. In the course of implementing export oriented industrialization policies, rural farm economy has been encountered labour shortage owing to rural farm population drain to urban areas, rural wage hike and pressure on farm operation costs, and possibility of farm productivity decrease. To cope with the above problems the Korean government has supplied farm machinery such as power tillers, tractors, transplanters, binders, combines, dryers and etc. by means of the favorable credit support and subsidies. The main objectives of this study are to identify the investment effects of farm mechanization such as B/C and Internal Rate of Return by machinery and operation patterns, changes of labour requirement per 10a for rice culture since 1965, partial farm budget of rice with and without mechanization, and estimation labour input with full mechanization. To achieve the objectives Saemaeul farm mechanization groups, common ownership and operation, and farms with private ownership and operation were surveyed mainly in Nonsan granary area, Chungnam province. The results of this study are as follows 1. The national average of labor input per 10a of paddy has decreased from 150.1Hr in 1965 to 87.2Hr in 1985 which showes 42% decrease of labour inputs. On the other hand the hours of labour input in Nonsan area have also decreased from 150.1Hr to 92.8Hr, 38% of that in 1965, during the same periods. 2. The possible labor saving hours per 10a of Paddy was estimated at 60 hours by substituting machine power for labor forces in the works of plowing, puddling, transplanting, harvesting and threshing, transporting and drying The labor savings were derived from 92.8 hours in 1986 deducting 30 hours of labor input with full mechanization in Nonsan area. 3. Social benefits of farm mechanization were estimated at 124,734won/10a including increment of rice (10%): 34,064won,labour saving: 65,800won,savings of conventional farm implements: 18,000 won and savings of animal power: 6,870won. 4. Rental charges by works prevailing in the area were 12,000won for land preparation, 15,000won for transplanting with seedlings, 19,500won for combine works and 6,000won for drying paddy. 5. Farm income per 10a of paddy with and without mechanization were amounted to 247,278won and 224,768won respectively. 6. Social rate of return of the machinery were estimated at more than 50% in all operation patterns. On the other hand internal rate of return of the machinery except tractors were also more than 50% but IRR of tractors by operation patterns were equivalent to 0 to 9%. From the view point of farmers financial status, private owner-operation of tractors is considered uneconomical. Tractor operation by Saemaeul mechanization groups would be economical considering the government subsidy, 40% of tractor price. 7. Farmers recommendations for the government that gained through field operation of farm machinery are to train maintenance technology for rural youth, to standardize the necessary parts of machinery, to implement price tag system, to intercede spare parts and provide marketing information to farmers by rural institutions as RDA,NACF,GUN office and FLIA.

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Dynamic Behavior of Reactor Internals under Safe Shutdown Earthquake (안전정기지진하의 원자로내부구조물 거동분석)

  • 김일곤
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 1994
  • The safety related components in the nuclear power plant should be designed to withstand the seismic load. Among these components the integrity of reactor internals under earthquake load is important in stand points of safety and economics, because these are classified to Seismic Class I components. So far the modelling methods of reactor internals have been investigated by many authors. In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of reactor internals of Yong Gwang 1&2 nuclear power plants under SSE(Safe Shutdown Earthquake) load is analyzed by using of the simpled Global Beam Model. For this, as a first step, the characteristic analysis of reactor internal components are performed by using of the finite element code ANSYS. And the Global Beam Model for reactor internals which includes beam elements, nonlinear impact springs which have gaps in upper and lower positions, and hydrodynamical couplings which simulate the fluid-filled cylinders of reactor vessel and core barrel structures is established. And for the exciting external force the response spectrum which is applied to reactor support is converted to the time history input. With this excitation and the model the dynamic behaviour of reactor internals is obtained. As the results, the structural integrity of reactor internal components under seismic excitation is verified and the input for the detailed duel assembly series model could be obtained. And the simplicity and effectiveness of Global Beam Model and the economics of the explicit Runge-Kutta-Gills algorithm in impact problem of high frequency interface components are confirmed.

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An Empirical Study on Key Success Factors of Company Informatization and Informatization Performance Determinants - Focused on SER-M Framework - (기업 정보화 핵심 성공요인과 정보화 성과 결정요인에 관한 실증 연구 - SER-M Framework을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Hae-Lyong;Gu, Ja-Won
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.277-306
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    • 2017
  • Most past studies on the Critical Success Factors of Company Informatization focused on the completeness of Informatization and its financial effect, and there have not been enough studies on whether a company's management strategies can be supported by establishing Informatization direction. This implies that there must be verification on the followings; whether Informatization focuses on steering the implementation of management strategies, what correlation there are between major mechanism factors and Informatization performance. This also implies that there must be a new study to re-interpret the existing success factors of Informatization into strategic management paradigm. The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the influence of subject, environment, resource, and mechanism factors on informatization achievement, and to analyze the differences in influence of informatization success factors on informatization achievement depending on domestic large corporations and SMEs. This study presented the verification results for seven research hypotheses. It was confirmed through empirical analysis that securing resource factor was significant in informatization performance and that all sub-factors of learning mechanism and coordination mechanism were also significant in enterprise informatization achievement. In addition, it was confirmed through the control effect analysis depending on enterprise size that the differences in informatization performance of large corporations and SMEs are due to support environment factor, learning mechanism, and selection mechanism. The implications of this study are as follows: First, the significance of mechanism factors such as learning, internal coordination, and external coordination are relatively higher than other factors in informatization achievement. Secondly, informatization success factors that SMEs must focus on achieving are presented by analyzing the differences on informatization achievement of large corporations and SMEs. Third, since empirical research for informatization success mechanism factors not covered empirically in the prior research was directly progressed, it is thought that it could provide a comprehensive understanding for mechanism factors. In addition, this study is thought to provide a practical contribution that can be applied to other industrial areas and enterprises.

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Influence of Dental Hygienists' Core Competencies on Job Performance (치과위생사의 핵심역량이 직무성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Jung Hyun;Lee, Yu Hee
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.142-149
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    • 2017
  • This study targeted 123 dental hygienists working at the university and dental hospital as well as the dental clinic in Busan. The study ran for 5 months beginning July 23, 2016. The purpose of the study was to understand the relationship between core competencies and job performance for dental hygienists. The major core competencies of dental hygienists were interpersonal relation competency (3.61) was the highest, followed by management and educational competency (3.59), organizational relation competency (3.57), and basic dental hygiene management competency (3.56). Regarding the subjects' job performance, 'the task requested by a boss could be finished by the deadline' (3.93) was the highest, followed by 'there has been no case where others were harmed owing to carelessness' (3.76). 'The performance exceeding the targets set by the boss' (3.11) was relatively low. The group working for dental hospitals showed higher job performance than the group working for dental clinics (p=0.009) while there were high correlations between core competencies and job performance (p=0.733). Also, analysis for understanding relevant variables of core competencies that affected job performance revealed that the interpersonal relation competency (p=0.25), self-control competency (p=0.32), and basic dental hygiene competency (p=0.15) were significant. In summary, reinforcement of the dental hygienists' core competencies has a positive effect on job performance. Improved job performance in turn should improve patient care as well as the performance of the healthcare organization overall which will be eventually helpful to the provision of high-quality medical service to patients, and helpful for the hospital organization Helpful in making their performance better. Therefore, it would be necessary to establish administrative/educational support to facilitate dental hygiene education to develop major competencies and vocational basic abilities, as well as reinforce diverse competency educational programs for the current dental hygienists.