• Title/Summary/Keyword: super-population model

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Analysis of Traffic Accident Severity by Aging Level (고령화 수준별 교통사고 심각성 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Yang;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2018
  • Korea has entered to 'aged society', which the elderly people over 65 years old is over 14% of total population. This paper aims to analyze the traffic accident by aging level. In pursuing the above, this paper focuses on modeling the traffic accident severity based on three aging levels. The main results are as follows. First, the ratio of fatal and serious injured persons (FSI) is judged to increase according to increasing aging level. Second, the null hypothesis that there is no difference in FSI among three aging levels (aging, aged, and super-aged) is rejected. Four accident severity generalized linear models which are all statistically significant have been developed. Third, the common variables are analyzed to be median age, the number of hospital beds per persons, and turn signal usage ratio. Fourth, the differentiated traffic safety policies fitted to aging levels are required. The enforcement of traffic law violation and safety enhancement of motorcycle in the region of 'aging society', improvement of traffic facilities in the region of 'aged society', and expansion of transportation facilities in the region of 'super-aged society' are evaluated to be indispensable.

Modeling on Ratio-Dependent Three-Trophic Population Dynamics Responding to Environmental Impacts (외부 환경영향에 대한 밀도비 의존 3영양단계의 개체군 동태 모델)

  • Lee, Sang-Hee;Choi, Kyung-Hee;Chon, Tae-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.37 no.3 s.108
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    • pp.304-312
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    • 2004
  • The transient dynamics of three-trophic populations (prey, predator, and super predator) using ratio-dependent models responding to environmental impacts is analyzed. Environmental factors were divided into two parts: periodic factor (e.g., temperature) and general noise. Periodic factor was addressed as a frequency and bias, while general noise was expressed as a Gaussian distribution. Temperature bias ${\varepsilon}$, temperature frequency ${\Omega}$, and Gaussian noise amplitude ${\`{O}}$ accordingly revealed diverse status of population dynamics in three-trophic food chain, including extinction of species. The model showed stable limit cycles and strange attractors in the long-time behavior depending upon various values of the parameters. The dynamic behavior of the system appeared to be sensitive to changes in environmental input. The parameters of environmental input play an important role in determining extinction time of super predator and predator populations.

Long-Term Projection of Demand for Reverse Mortgage Using the Bass Diffusion Model in Korea (Bass 확산모형을 활용한 국내 주택연금의 중·장기 수요예측)

  • Yang, Jin-Ah;Min, Daiki;Choi, Hyung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2017
  • Korea is expected to become a super-aged society by 2050. Given an aging population and the increasing pressure for the early retirement, a sufficient social safety net for elderly population becomes important. The Korean government introduced public reverse mortgage program in 2007, which is a product for aging seniors and the elderly, The number of reverse mortgage subscribers has also steadily grown. The demand continues to grow, but the reverse mortgage over a long period of time is a highly uncertain and risky product in the position of guarantee or lending institution. Thus, suitable demand prediction of the reverse mortgage subscribers is necessary for stable and sustainable operation. This study uses a Bass diffusion model to forecast the long-term demand for reverse mortgage and provides insight into reverse mortgage by forecasting demand for stability and substantiality of the loan product. We represent the projections of new subscribers on the basis of the data obtained from Korea Housing Finance Corporation. Results show that potential market size of Korean reverse mortgage reaches approximately 760,000-1,160,000 households by 2020. We validate the results by comparing the estimate of the cumulative number of subscribers with that found in literature.

Evaluating Performance of Telecommunication Branch : Application of DEA with Non-Discretionary Factor (통신지사의 성과평가 : 비재량 요인을 포함한 DEA 적용)

  • Kwon, Sun-Man;Han, Chang Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2017
  • Improving efficiency of the telecommunication is crucial to the development and growth of Korean economy. Recently, it has become important with the huge development of information technology and its greater potential for extensive impact on the rest of the economy. Hence, it is useful to determine the factors that help enhance efficiency in telecommunication and consider them in improving the evaluation model. This study applies DEA (data envelopment analysis) to evaluate the relative efficiency of 51 branches of a Korean telecommunication company. Using the super-efficiency approach, we tested outliers which may affect the results and ranked the efficient branches. A method of deriving key variables applied to business operation is proposed to identify the key performance indicators for evaluation that takes environmental (non-discretionary) factors into account. We used the extended CCR model proposed by Banker and Morey to investigate the influence of non-discretionary factor. The information provided by the model (slacks, weights) and the sensitivity analysis shows that the most important indicator that affects the branch performance is operating cost. The results of sensitivity analysis show that average efficient score decreases from 0.972 (base case) to 0.863 for CASE2-COST. The average score of the data proves the priority of operating cost over other indicators. The effect of environmental (non-discretionary) variable was found to be significant. The population effect was positive and improved overall efficiency by 0.91% on average. Non-discretionary factor plays a meaningful role explaining the performance of branches. The performance optimization report can help a manager of an inefficient branch to develop branch strategies. Managers can identify the top-performing units, study best practices and adopt the strategy to the organization.

Evaluation on the Criteria of Organisational Sustainability by Adopting ANP

  • Yu, Shuai;Li, Miaomiao;Xin, Siqi
    • Journal of East Asia Management
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.63-92
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    • 2021
  • Human activities have been putting a great burden on the earth, leading to many serious problems, such as lack of resources, ecological degradation and air degradation. Although many countries have recognised this circumstance and have developed some sustainable development strategies, the earth still needs research on sustainability in different views and various industries. The nursing industry has grown with the ageing of the global population in recent years, and professional nursing institutions could relieve structural deterioration caused by the ageing population in family, social, economic and cultural. Hence, exploring the key criteria of organisational sustainability in the nursing industry is of the utmost priority. This paper puts forward an evaluation framework to identify the key criteria of organisational sustainability. After connections with nursing homes A and B in China, the author adopts literature research to confirm the criteria system which is based on triple bottom line, utilises analytical network process method to design the network hierarchy analysis model and importance comparison questionnaires to collect experts' first-hand data, and uses technical software - Super Decisions to integrate data and obtain final results. The results recommend three top-ranked criteria in the entire system, eco-recruitment, eco-procurement and corporate social responsibility are discussed with some professional suggestions in the end. The limitations are also extended in the last chapter to provide future research perspectives.

Analysis of Topics Related to Population Aging Using Natural Language Processing Techniques (자연어 처리 기술을 활용한 인구 고령화 관련 토픽 분석)

  • Hyunjung Park;Taemin Lee;Heuiseok Lim
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.55-79
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    • 2024
  • Korea, which is expected to enter a super-aged society in 2025, is facing the most worrisome crisis worldwide. Efforts are urgently required to examine problems and countermeasures from various angles and to improve the shortcomings. In this regard, from a new viewpoint, we intend to derive useful implications by applying the recent natural language processing techniques to online articles. More specifically, we derive three research questions: First, what topics are being reported in the online media and what is the public's response to them? Second, what is the relationship between these aging-related topics and individual happiness factors? Third, what are the strategic directions and implications for benchmarking discussed to solve the problem of population aging? To find answers to these, we collect Naver portal articles related to population aging and their classification categories, comments, and number of comments, including other numerical data. From the data, we firstly derive 33 topics with a semi-supervised BERTopic by reflecting article classification information that was not used in previous studies, conducting sentiment analysis of comments on them with a current open-source large language model. We also examine the relationship between the derived topics and personal happiness factors extended to Alderfer's ERG dimension, carrying out additional 3~4-gram keyword frequency analysis, trend analysis, text network analysis based on 3~4-gram keywords, etc. Through this multifaceted approach, we present diverse fresh insights from practical and theoretical perspectives.

THE EFFECT OF HELIUM-ENHANCED STELLAR POPULATIONS ON THE ULTRAVIOLET-UPTURN PHENOMENON OF EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES

  • Chung, Chul;Yoon, Suk-Jin;Lee, Young-Wook
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.67.1-67.1
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    • 2011
  • Recent observations and modeling of globular clusters with multiple populations strongly indicate the presence of super helium-rich subpopulations in old stellar systems. Motivated by this, we have constructed new population synthesis models with and without helium-enhanced subpopulations to investigate their impact on the UV-upturn phenomenon of quiescent early-type galaxies. We find that our models with helium-enhanced subpopulations can naturally reproduce the strong UV-upturns observed in giant elliptical galaxies assuming an age similar to that of old globular clusters in the Milky Way. The major source of far-UV (FUV) flux, in this model, is relatively metal-poor and helium-enhanced hot horizontal branch stars and their progeny. The Burstein et al. (1988) relation of the FUV - V color with metallicity is also explained either by the variation of the fraction of helium-enhanced subpopulations or by the spread in mean age of stellar populations in early-type galaxies.

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STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS OF THE ELLIPTICAL GALAXY NGC 4649 (타원은하 NGC 4649의 종족합성)

  • 천문석;김문환;손영종
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 2001
  • We investigated population of the elliptical galaxy NGC 4649 using the spectral synthesis technique based on the linear program in the spectral regions between $3160\AA$to $10800\AA$. We used the spectral data of stars obtained by Gunn & Striker (1983), and the integrated spectrum of NGC 4649 observed by Bertola et al. (1982). Among four models with different main sequence turn-off points, G8-K0V main sequence turn-off model is best fitted to the integrated spectrum of NGC 4649. We also found that super metal rich K giants are needed to describe the absorption lines in the long wavelength regions of integrated spectrum of NGC 4649. The mass to absolute light ratio obtained from the spectral synthesis is ~ 20 similar to those calculated dynamically.

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Bias adjusted estimation in a sample survey with linear response rate (응답률이 선형인 표본조사에서 편향 보정 추정)

  • Chung, Hee Young;Shin, Key-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.631-642
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    • 2019
  • Many methods have been developed to solve problems found in sample surveys involving a large number of item non-responses that cause inaccuracies in estimation. However, the non-response adjustment method used under the assumption of random non-response generates a bias in cases where the response rate is affected by the variable of interest. Chung and Shin (2017) and Min and Shin (2018) proposed a method to improve the accuracy of estimation by appropriately adjusting a bias generated when the response rate is a function of the variables of interest. In this study, we studied a case where the response rate function is linear and the error of the super population model follows normal distribution. We also examined the effect of the number of stratum population on bias adjustment. The performance of the proposed estimator was examined through simulation studies and confirmed through actual data analysis.

Efficiency Analysis of Specialists by Medical Specialty using Activity-Based Costing Data: Using the DEA-CCR model and SBM model (활동기준 원가 자료를 활용한 과별 전문의의 효율성 분석 : DEA-CCR 모형과 SBM 모형을 이용)

  • Do Won Kim;Tae Hyun Kim
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.44-65
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    • 2023
  • Purposes: As super-aging population and low fertility rates are threatening the sustainability of the National Health Insurance funds, enhancing the efficiency of hospital management is paramount. In the past, studies analyzing the efficiencies of hospitals primarily made inter-hospital comparisons, but it is important to assess hospitals' internal efficiency and develop improvement measures in order to attain practical improvements in hospital efficiencies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the efficiencies of specialists by medical specialty in a hospital in order to provide foundational data for efficient hospital management. Methodology/Approach: We used the activity-based costing (ABC) data and hospital statistical data from one tertiary hospital in Seoul to analyze the efficiency of specialists by medical specialty. Efficiency was analyzed and compared among specialists using the data envelopment analysis developed by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (DEA-CCR) model and the slacks-based measure (SBM) models. The input variables were labor cost, material cost, and operational expenses, and the output variables were the number of outpatients, number of inpatients, outpatient revenue, and inpatient revenue. Findings: First, there was a marked deviation in efficiency across specialists. Second, there was a marked deviation in efficiency across medical specialties. Third, there was little difference in efficiency according to the specialist's sex, age, and job position. Fourth, the SBM model produced more conservative results and better explained efficiency parameters than the CCR model. Practical Implications: The efficiency of a specialist was more influenced by their medical specialty than their personal characteristics, namely sex, age, and job position. Therefore, Further research is needed to analyze the efficiencies of each subspecialty and identify factors that contribute to the variations in efficiencies across medical specialties, such as clinical practices and fee structures.

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