• 제목/요약/키워드: summer monsoon

검색결과 252건 처리시간 0.02초

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) 과거기후 예측장의 앙상블 확대와 초기시간 변화에 따른 예측 특성 분석 (Assessment of the Prediction Derived from Larger Ensemble Size and Different Initial Dates in GloSea6 Hindcast)

  • 김지영;박연희;지희숙;현유경;이조한
    • 대기
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.367-379
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, the evaluation of the performance of Korea Meteorological Administratio (KMA) Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) is presented by assessing the effects of larger ensemble size and carrying out the test using different initial conditions for hindcast in sub-seasonal to seasonal scales. The number of ensemble members increases from 3 to 7. The Ratio of Predictable Components (RPC) approaches the appropriate signal magnitude with increase of ensemble size. The improvement of annual variability is shown for all basic variables mainly in mid-high latitude. Over the East Asia region, there are enhancements especially in 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind fields. It reveals possibility to improve the performance of East Asian monsoon. Also, the reliability tends to become better as the ensemble size increases in summer than winter. To assess the effects of using different initial conditions, the area-mean values of normalized bias and correlation coefficients are compared for each basic variable for hindcast according to the four initial dates. The results have better performance when the initial date closest to the forecasting time is used in summer. On the seasonal scale, it is better to use four initial dates, where the maximum size of the ensemble increases to 672, mainly in winter. As the use of larger ensemble size, therefore, it is most efficient to use two initial dates for 60-days prediction and four initial dates for 6-months prediction, similar to the current Time-Lagged ensemble method.

CORDEX 동아시아 영역에서 경계조건 및 적운모수화방안이 RegCM4를 이용한 남한 지역 기후모의에 미치는 영향 분석 (Impact of Boundary Conditions and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes on Regional Climate Simulation over South-Korea in the CORDEX-East Asia Domain Using the RegCM4 Model)

  • 오석근;서명석;명지수;차동현
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.373-387
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 CORDEX 동아시아 영역에서 경계조건(ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE2) 및 적운모수화방안(Grell, Emanuel)이 2010년 7월에 공개된 지역기후모델(RegCM4)의 모의성능에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 1989년에 대해 총 4개의 민감도 실험(EG, EE, NG, NE)을 수행하였다. 남한에서의 기온, 강수에 대한 RegCM4의 모의성능을 분석하기 위해 기상청의 기온, 강수자료를 이용하였다. RegCM4는 경계조건 및 적운모수화방안에 관계없이 기온의 공간분포, 계절변동을 잘 모의한 반면, 모든 실험에서 강수의 시 공간 분포를 적절히 모의하지 못하였다. 특히, EG, NG, NE 실험은 여름 강수를 관측보다 현저히 적게 모의하는 등 강수의 계절변동을 전혀 모의하지 못하고 있다. 하지만 EE 실험에서는 여름 강수를 포함하여 계절변동을 상대적으로 잘 모의하였다. 동아시아 여름 몬순 및 강수강도별 강수량, 강수빈도 모의에서도 EE 실험이 우수한 모의성능을 보였다. RegCM4는 경계조건에 관계없이 기온, 강수 모두 여름보다는 겨울에, Grell 보다는 Emanuel 방안을 적용할 때 높은 모의성능을 보였다. 또한 전체적으로 모의성능은 경계조건보다는 적운모수화방안에 더 큰 영향을 받는다.

A Heuristic Estimation of the Genesis Probability of Tropical Cyclones using Genesis Frequency and Genesis Potential Index

  • Shin, Jihoon;Song, Chanwoo;Kim, Siyun;Park, Sungsu
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제40권6호
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    • pp.561-571
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    • 2019
  • To understand the genesis of tropical cyclones (TC), we computed TC genesis probability (GPr) by partitioning a highly localized genesis frequency (GFq) into nearby grid boxes in proportion to the spatial coherence of genesis potential index (GPI). From the analysis of TCs simulated by the Seoul National University Atmosphere Model Version 0 and the observed TCs, it was shown that GPr reasonably converges to GFq when averaged over a long-term period in a decent grid size, supporting its validity as a proxy representing a true TC GPr. The composite anomalies of the gridded GPr in association with the Asia summer monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are much less noisy than those of GFq, and consequently are better interpretable. In summary, GPr converges to GFq, varies more smoothly than GFq, represents the spatiotemporal variations of GFq better than GPI, and depicts GFq with greater spatial details than other spatially smoothed GFqs.

무인항공기를 이용한 대기갈색연무의 기후효과 연구 (Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Study on the Climate Impacts of the Atmospheric Brown Clouds)

  • 김상우;윤순창
    • 대기
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.519-530
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    • 2010
  • In this paper we review current research on Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) with lightweight Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and miniaturized instruments. The UAV technology for in-situ measurements, including aerosol concentration, aerosol size distribution, aerosol absorption, cloud drop size distribution, solar radiation fluxes (visible and broadband), and spectral radiative fluxes, is a leading-edge technology for cost-effective atmospheric sounding, which can fill the gap between the ground measurement and satellite observation. The first experimental observation with UAVs in Korea, Cheju ABC Plume Monsoon Experiment (CAPMEX), conducted during summer 2008 revealed that the Beijing plumes exerted a strong positive influence on the net warming and fossil-fuel-dominated black-carbon plumes were approximately 100% more efficient warming agents than biomass-burning-dominated plumes. Long-term sustainable routine UAV measurements will eventually provide truly three-dimensional data of ABCs, which is necessary for the better understanding of their climate impacts and for the improvement of numerical models for air pollution, weather forecast and climate change.

한국연안 평균 해면의 연변화 (On the Annual Variation of Mean Sea Level along the Coast of Korea)

  • 강용균;이병돈
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.22-30
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    • 1985
  • 한국연안 평균해면은, 주로 대기압과 해수밀도 변화로 인하여, 여름에 높고 겨 울에 낮다. 대기압 변화에 수반된 평균해면의 변위는 한국연안 어디에서나 거의 균 일하며, 연주기 진폭은 8.5$\pm$0.8cm이다. 수온변화에 따른 해면변위는 연주기 진폭이 4-8cm정도이며, 황해에서 현저하다. 남해의 해면은 염분변화의 영향을 크게 받으며, 이의 연주기 진폭은 5cm까지 이른다. 월별 평균 해면의 연교차는 서해에서 40cm정 도이고 동해에서 20cm정도인데 , 이와 같은 지역에 따라 연교차가 다른 주원인은 계절풍이 서해에서는 해면의 연교차를 증가시키나, 동해에서는 감소시키기 때문이다.

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하천통로에서 미세 지형 발달이 하천 식생에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Microtopography on the Development of Riparian Vegetation in Stream Corridors)

  • 정경진;김동엽
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 1999
  • Urban streams have, recently, been straightened and widened to alleviate flooding problem. As a result, the stream have been modified inadvertently for ecological functions and microtopography. In this study, we investigated riparian vegetation and microtopography of the tributaries of Han River before and after the monsoon rain in summer. The purpose of this study was to relate the stream microtopography to the distribution of riparian vegetation. The stream microtopography was investigated for its scale and pattern. Vegetation was investigated from 131 plots by Braun-Blanquet method. The distribution of riparian vegetation was significantly correlated with the stream microtopography. Various herbaceous species occurred at stream bank slop, high terrace and channel side. However, at channel side and concave part of terrace where soils were in high moisture level, only a few wetland species were dominated. The complexity of the microtopography in the stream corridors led to heterogeneous riparian vegetation. The vegetation showed more stability against flooding at the stream corridors with natural and complex microtopography than at the urban-type stream corridors with simple topographical features. The results showed that the development of riparian vegetation was influenced by the changes in microtopography, which was primarily determined by the shape and characteristics of channel. It seemed that a close-to-nature river system would be restored more readily with an understanding of microtopographical features affecting the distribution of riparian vegetation.

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마이오세 후기 안다만해에서 생물기원 오팔 함량의 폭감에 대한 논의 (Discussion on the Late Miocene Biogenic Opal Crash in the Andaman Sea)

  • 이종민;김성한;김부근
    • 한국해양학회지:바다
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2020
  • 마이오세 후기(약 6.7 Ma)에 나타난 생물기원 오팔 함량의 폭감(biogenic opal crash)이 안다만해에서 획득된 IODP Site U1447과 NGHP Site 17의 코아 퇴적층에서 확인되었다. 두 코아 사이의 오팔 함량과 전반적인 변화 경향에서 나타난 차이점은 실험분석에 사용된 시약의 농도와 층서 설정에 의해 계산된 퇴적률의 차이 때문이다. 안다만해에서 발생한 마이오세 후기 생물기원 오팔 함량의 폭감은 인도네시아 관통류(Indonesian Throughflow)의 차단으로 인한 서태평양으로부터의 영양염 공급 감소와 더불어 인도여름몬순의 약화에 의한 강수량 감소로 강물에 의한 영양염 공급 감소의 복합적인 요인에 의한 것으로 제안된다.

개념적 유역모델을 이용한 영산강 유역 오염부하 유출량의 시공간적 분포평가 (Estimation of Pollution Loads from the Yeongsan River Basin using a Conceptual Watershed Model)

  • 박민혜;조홍래;구본경
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.184-198
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    • 2014
  • For estimating discharge and pollution loads into the Yeongsan lake, a conceptual watershed model HSPF(Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran) was applied to the Yeongsan River Basin. Various spatial data set including DEM, watershed boundaries and land uses were used to set up the model for the Yeongsan River Basin that was divided into 45 sub-basins. The model was calibrated and validated for the river discharges, SS, BOD, TN and TP concentrations against the data observed in 2011 at several monitoring stations. The simulation results show good agreement with the observed water flows($R^2$ = 0.46 - 0.97, NSE = 0.70 - 0.96). The simulated concentrations of SS, BOD, TN and TP are also in good agreement with the observed. The total freshwater discharge to the Yeongsan lake is estimated $2,406{\times}10^6m^3/year$ which the Jiseok and Hwangryoung stream contribute as much as 19%, 17% respectively. It is estimated that the total discharges to the Youngsan lake is SS 152,327 ton/year, BOD 15,721 ton/year, TN 10,071 ton/year, TP 563 ton/year. Both water and pollution loads are high in summer, particularly in July, when the monsoon season arrives at the Korean peninsula.

제주도 주요하천의 기저유출량 산정 (Estimation of Baseflow Discharge through Several Streams in Jeju Island, Korea)

  • 문덕철;양성기;고기원;박원배
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2005
  • Groundwater in Jeju Island, flowing through main stream, is spring water from underground. To set a fixed quantity of groundwater flowing from surface in a hydrological view, 4 downstream (Woedo stream, Gangjung stream, Yeonwoe stream and Ongpo stream) were selected to calculate the characteristic of baseflow and the base-flow discharge through the data on tachometry. There were 11 to 14 level peak caused by runoff, mostly occurred during monsoon season. Also, duration of runoff was 15 to 25 hours, well reflecting the characteristic of inclined, short stream length in Jeju Island and pervious hydrogeographical feature. In case of Gangjung stream, Yeonwoe stream and Ongpo stream, variation of stream water level by baseflow rose above during summer, which was closely linked to the distribution of seasonal precipitation. From autumn to spring, water level fell below while that of Woedo stream remained the same all year round. Data on the water level observed in Woedo stream and Gangjung stream in every single minutes was applied to weir formula(equation of Oki and Govinda Rao) to calculate baseflow discharge. Also, using the data on current and water level calculated in Ongpo stream and Yeonwoe stream, water level-water flow rating was applied to assess base flow discharge.

우리나라 호소의 영양상태 분류에 관한 제언 (Suggestion for Trophic State Classification of Korean Lakes)

  • 공동수;김범철
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.248-256
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    • 2019
  • Most of the lakes in Korea are artificial, and their limnological characteristics are significantly different from those of natural lakes in other countries. In this study, the relationship between trophic state parameters was investigated, based on summer average data of the upper layer, in 81 lakes in Korea, 2013-2017. Compared with trends of foreign natural lakes, chlorophyll a (Chl.a) concentration was slightly lower at the same total phosphorus (TP) concentration, and transparency (Secchi depth, SD) was noticeably lower at the same Chl.a concentration. This is because of excessive allochthonous loading of non-algal material during the monsoon period, and the reduction in phosphorus availability to algal growth, by light limitation and short hydraulic residence time. Considering these characteristics, we suggested site-specific thresholds of trophic state classification for Chl.a, TP and SD, based on annual average data at the upper layer of lakes ($3-10{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$ of Chl.a measured by UNESCO method; $13-33{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$ of TP; 1.6-3.2 m of SD for mesotrophic state class, respectively). The threshold value of TP for each trophic state class, corresponded to the upper value of previously reported range, and that of SD was out of the range. We suggested applying only TP and Chl.a in assessment of trophic state of lakes in Korea, excluding SD.