• 산업공학
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.309-318
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• 2012

Forecasting probability or likelihood of technology development success has been a crucial factor for critical decisions in technology management such as R&D project selection and go or no-go decision of new product development (NPD) projects. This paper proposes an analytic network process (ANP) approach to forecasting of technology development success. Reviewing literature on factors affecting technology development success has constructed the ANP model composed of four criteria clusters : R&D characteristics, R&D competency, technological characteristics, and technological environment. An alternative cluster comprised of two elements, success and failure is also included in the model. The working of the proposed approach is provided with the help of a case study example of MRAM (magnetic random access memory) technology.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2001년도 The Pacific Aisan Confrence On Intelligent Systems 2001
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• pp.156-163
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• 2001

Business forecasting is vital to the success of business. There has been an increasing demand for building business forecasting software system to assist human being to do forecasting. However, the uncertain and complex nature makes is a challenging work to analyze, design and implement software solutions for business forecasting. Traditional forecasting systems in which their models are trained based on small collection of historical data could not meet such challenges at the information explosion over the Internet. This paper presents an agent oriented business forecasting approach for building intelligent business forecasting software systems with high reusability. Although agents have been applied successfully to many application domains. little work has been reported to use the emerging agent oriented technology of this paper is that it explores how agent can be used to help human to manage various business forecasting processes in the whole business forecasting life cycle.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.415-423
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• 2014

In recent decades, RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) technology has been recognized as one of the most core competencies in implementing ubiquitous society. However, Korea has not seen good success in diffusion of RFID even though Korean government continues funding many projects to diffuse the technology in industries. Most previous researches overestimate the growth of Korean RFID market in contrary to real market situation. This study aims to analyze the Korean RFID market and find a reasonable forecasting model for it. Our experimental results show that Bass forecasting model provides the more realistic estimates than any other models and the analyses of forecasting error provide useful information for the better forecasting. We also observed that government policy plays a crucial role in the diffusion of RFID technology in Korea.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.161-186
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• 2011

To date, SCM research has mainly focused on the effects of controlled variables on SCM success and emphasized adoption strategies and critical success factors. Consequently, the effects of more uncontrolled variables such as partnership between SCM partners have been largely ignored. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the effects of both controlled variables and uncontrolled variables on SCM performance through affecting RTE characteristics. The six factors examined in this study include Quality of information, partnership quality, Forecasting, Agility, Visibility, and SCM performance. In this study, SCM Performance was divided into three categories: Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance. All factors were examined from the perspective of part suppliers. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, SCM information quality positively affected SCM partnership quality, Forecasting, Agility, Visibility. Second, SCM partnership quality positively affected Forecasting, Agility. But, SCM partnership quality showed no significant effect on Visibility. Third, Forecasting had a significant impact on SCM performance. According to the detailed result of measuring SCM performance with Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance, although Forecasting affects Cost Performance, Delivery Performance directly, it does not affect Quality Performance directly. Fourth, Agility also had a significant impact on SCM performance. According to the detailed result of measuring SCM performance, Agility has significant impact on Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance. Fifth, Visibility, as expected, had a significant impact on SCM performance. According to the detailed result of measuring SCM performance, Visibility has significant impact on Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.23-34
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• 1998

Travel time forecasting, especially public bus travel time forecasting in urban areas, is a difficult and complex problem which requires a prohibitively large computation time and years of experience. As the network of target area grows with addition of streets and lanes, computational burden of the forecasting systems exponentially increases. Even though the travel time between two neighboring intersections is known a priori, it is still difficult, if not impossible, to compute the travel time between every two intersections. For the reason, previous approaches frequently have oversimplified the transportation network to show feasibilities of the problem solving algorithms. In this paper, forecasting of the travel time between every two intersections is attempted based on travel time data between two neighboring intersections. The time stamps data of public buses which recorded arrival time at predetermined bus stops was extensively collected and forecast. At first, the time stamp data was categorized to eliminate white noise, uncontrollable in forecasting, based on wavelet conversion. Then, the radial basis neural networks was applied to remaining data, which showed relatively accurate results. The success of the attempt was confirmed by the drastically reduced relative error when the nodes between the target intersections increases. In general, as the number of the nodes between target intersections increases, the relative error shows the tendency of sharp increase. The experimental results of the novel approaches, based on wavelet conversion and neural network teaming mechanism, showed the forecasting methodology is very promising.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.77-94
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• 2006

Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is widely used in business and industry prediction. It is suitable to solve complex and unstructured business problems. Recently, the prediction accuracy of CBR has been enhanced by not only various machine learning algorithms such as genetic algorithms, relative weighting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) input variable but also data mining technique such as feature selection, feature weighting, feature transformation, and instance selection As a result, CBR is even more widely used today in business area. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of the CBR method in forecasting success in implementing ERP systems. We used a CBR method based on the feature weighting technique to compare the performance of three different models : MDA (Multiple Discriminant Analysis), GECBR (GEneral CBR), FWCBR (CBR with Feature Weighting supported by Analytic Hierarchy Process). The study suggests that the FWCBR approach is a promising method for forecasting of successful ERP implementation in Small and Medium sized Enterprises.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.327-332
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• 2005

본 연구는 항만혁신클러스터의 성공도 예측과 평가요소를 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 항만혁신클러스터 정책, 자원, 운영 등 3가지의 평가항목으로 구분하였다. 그리고 3항목은 다시 12개의 요소로 세분화하였다. 평가요소의 중요도는 코호넨 네트웍에 의해 산출되었다. 그 결과 자원요소가 다른 요소에 비해 가장 중요한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2006년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.137-142
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• 2006

비용과 공기는 수익과 직접적인 상관관계를 갖는 중요한 요소로 성공적인 프로젝트를 위해서는 이들에 대한 정확한 예측이 이루어져야 한다. 현재 최종 공사비와 공기 예측을 목적으로 EVMS(Earned Value Management System)가 범용적으로 활용되고 있지만, 기존에 제시된 공사비 및 공기 예측모텔은 선형적인 예측방식을 사용하기 때문에 예측결과가 부정확하고 시공업체의 성향, 프로젝트의 특성, 진도율에 따른 변화 등을 고려하지 못하는 한계가 있었다. 본 연구에서는 건설산업의 다양한 특성이 반영될 수 있도록 PB-S curve와 다중회귀분석을 이용한 진행단계별 공사비 및 공기의 기울기 예측모델을 제안하고 이를 동해 최종 공사비 및 공기를 예측하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 국내 건설업체로부터 23건의 도로공사 EVMS 자료를 활용하여 공사 진행단계별 기울기 예측을 위한 회귀분석방정식을 도출하고, 활용성을 검증하였다.

• 정보관리연구
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.85-97
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• 2006

지식과 정보를 컨텐츠로 하는 디지털시대는 성공과 실패, 승자와 패자의 구분이 뚜렷해지는 변화에 도전하는 자만이 강자가 될 수 있고 주역이 될 수 있는 시대이다. 본 연구에서는 도서관의 궁극적 목적인 정보제공에 관련된 서비스패턴을 개혁시키기 위해 고안된 FISP(Forecasting Information Service Program) 모델을 제시한다. 이 모델은 아날로그시대의 소극적이고 피동적인 정보서비스패턴을 과감하게 탈피한 혁신전략으로 전문사서의 위상을 높이고 직제를 개편하는데 성공하기까지의 방법론을 밝히는 것이다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.139-149
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• 2014

A new technique, namely the combination of satellite and trajectory analysis (CSTA), for exploring the spatio-temporal distribution information of volcanic ash plume (VAP) from volcanic eruption. CSTA uses the satellite derived ash property data and a matching forward-trajectories, which can generate airmass history pattern for specific VAP. In detail, VAP properties such as ash mask, aerosol optical thickness at 11 ${\mu}m$ ($AOT_{11}$), ash layer height, and effective radius from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite were retrieved, and used to estimate the possibility of the ash forecasting in local atmosphere near volcano. The use of CSTA for Iceland's Eyjafjallaj$\ddot{o}$kull volcano erupted in May 2010 reveals remarkable spatial coherence for some VAP source-transport pattern. The CSTA forecasted points of VAP are consistent with the area of MODIS retrieved VAP. The success rate of the 24 hour VAP forecast result was about 77.8% in this study. Finally, the use of CSTA could provide promising results for VAP monitoring and forecasting by satellite observation data and verification with long term measurement dataset.