• Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.127-143
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• 2024

Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a machine learning model to predict the subsequent childbirth intention of married women with one child, aiming to address the low birth rate problem in Korea, This will be achieved by utilizing data from the 2021 Family and Childbirth Survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. Methods: A prediction model was developed using the Random Forest algorithm to predict the subsequent childbirth intention of married women with one child. This algorithm was chosen for its advantages in prediction and generalization, and its performance was evaluated. Results: The significance of variables influencing the Random Forest prediction model was confirmed. With the exception of the presence or absence of leave before and after childbirth, most variables contributed to predicting the intention to have subsequent childbirth. Notably, variables such as the mother's age, number of children planned at the time of marriage, average monthly household income, spouse's share of childcare burden, mother's weekday housework hours, and presence or absence of spouse's maternity leave emerged as relatively important predictors of subsequent childbirth intention.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.65-78
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• 2017

This study aims to analyze whether both childcare subsidy and childcare leave policies have moderating effects on the relationship between Korean women's value of children and their intentions for subsequent childbirth. The data are used from the 2015 National Survey on Fertility and Family Health and Welfare. Both hierarchical multiple regression analysis and moderated regression analysis are used for statistical analysis. The findings from the study are as follow. First, the ideal number of children, instrumental values, and emotional values have positive effects on the intentions for subsequent childbirth after controlling for background variables(level of education, income, age, and number of children). Second, childcare leave policy has no significant effect on the intentions for subsequent childbirth while childcare subsidy policy has the negative effect. Third, only childcare subsidy policy has moderating effects on the relationship between instrumental, emotional values, and the intentions for subsequent childbirth. These results suggest that policies enhancing the value of children should be implemented in addition to traditional birth rate policies. Furthermore, new birth rate polices are needed for those married women who have a high possibility of subsequent childbirth.