• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.225-233
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• 2022

The recent outbreak of corona virus (COVID-19) infectious disease had made its forecasting critical cornerstones in most scientific studies. This study adopts a machine learning based time series model - Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana over 60 days period. Findings of the study show that COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana are steadily rising in a steep upward trend with random fluctuations. This trend can also be described effectively using an additive model when scrutinized in Seasonal Trend Decomposition method by Loess. In selecting the best fit ARIMA model, a Grid Search Algorithm was developed with python language and was used to optimize an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) metric. The best fit ARIMA model was determined at ARIMA (5, 1, 1), which depicted the least AIC score of 3885.091. Results of the study proved that ARIMA model can be useful in generating reliable and volatile forecasts that can used to guide on understanding of the future spread of infectious diseases or pandemics. Most significantly, findings of the study are expected to raise social awareness to disease monitoring institutions and government regulatory bodies where it can be used to support strategic health decisions and initiate policy improvement for better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.2064-2071
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• 2011

We are developing an innovative super-speed land transportation system running in a partial vacuum in tunnels with small inside diameter to reduce the aerodynamic drag forces. This paper presents the experimental results obtained on a small scale model when a super-speed train model passing through a tunnel with small inside diameter and a partial vacuum to reduce the aerodynamic drag forces. The experiments were performed on a 1/52-scale moving model rig in which a train model with a diameter of 58 mm and a length of 603 mm was accelerated in a launching tube with 12.27 m length by means of the compressed air launcher and then passed through a tunnel model with 17.149 m length. The partial vacuum was maintained in the tunnel in order to reduce the energy consumption of the propulsion system of the super-speed tube train at super-speed of 700 km/h. In this study, the blockage ratio of train to tunnel model is 0.336. Experimental results show the nonlinear effects of the vacuum on the speed-up of the train model in the tunnel model under the partial vacuum up to 0.21 atm and at the velocity up to 684 km/h. This paper is first study for experiments on the speed-up of a super-speed train model in the partial vacuum tunnels.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

As the axle at the vehicle of railway has the important role for safe running, the strength, and impact-proof, safety factor, stress and deformation must be considered. There are the simulation models of 1 and 2 in this study. These models are investigated by performing the convergence technique through the design, the structural and fatigue analyses with CATIA and ANSYS. As the maximum deformation and equivalent stress of model A are lower than those of model B, model A has more durability than model B. The durability to prevent the damage can be investigated by applying the result of this study into the part design of the vehicle of rail road. And it is possible to be grafted onto the convergence technique at design and show the esthetic sense.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.319-335
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• 2014

This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.15-37
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• 2014

In this study, the optimum silo dimensions for the barrel-type steel-concentrated silo with a conical outlet port usable in the hazelnut storage were investigated. Three different types of silo models as Model 1 (1635 tons), Model 2 (620 tons) and Model 3 (1124 tons) were used in the study. Varying wall thicknesses were used for Model 1 (10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 20 mm), Model 2 (10, 15 and 20 mm) and Model 3 (10, 15 and 20 mm) silos. For Model 1 silo has the most storage capacity here, to determine its optimum wall thickness, the wall thicknesses of 11, 12, 13 and 14 mm were used as different from the other models. Thus the stresses occurring in different lines with ANSYS finite element software were examined. In the study it was determined that the 10, 11 and 12 mm wall thicknesses of the Model 1 silo are not safe in terms of the stresses caused by the vertical pressure loads in the filling conditions. From the view of the filling and discharge conditions, other wall thicknesses and model silos were diagnosed to be secure. The optimum silo dimensions which won't cause any structural problems have been found out as the Model 1 silo with a 13 mm wall thickness when the filling capacity and the maximum von Mises stresses are taken into account. This barrel-type silo with conical outlet port sets forth the most convenient properties in hazelnut storing in terms of engineering.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.21-31
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• 2007

This study is aimed at the development of a runoff forecasting model by using the Fuzzy inference system and Neural Network model to solve the uncertainties occurring in the process of rainfall-runoff modeling and improve the modeling accuracy of the stream runoff forecasting. The Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) model were used in this study. The NF model, recently received a great deal of attention, improve the existing Neural Networks by the aid of the Fuzzy theory applied to each node. The study area is the downstreams of Naeseung-chun. Therefore, time-dependent data was obtained from the Wolpo water level gauging station. 11 and 2 out of total 13 flood events were selected for the training and testing set of model respectively. The schematic diagram method and the statistical analysis are conducted to evaluate the feasibility of rainfall-runoff modeling. The model accuracy was rapidly decreased as the forecasting time became longer. The NF model can give accurate runoff forecasts up to 4 hours ahead in standard above the Determination coefficient $(R^2)$ 0.7. In the comparison of the runoff forecasting using the NF and TANK models, characteristics of peak runoff in the TANK model was higher than ones in the NF models, but peak values of hydrograph in the NF models were similar.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.908-911
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• 2004

The purpose of this study is to investigate the applicability of the two dimensional model in natural rivers. In this study, two dimensional unite element model, SMS, is used to simulate a complex flow along with the sediment movements in the natural river. The RMA-2 model embeded in SMS is used to simulate flow phenomena and SED-2D model is employed to simulate sediment transport. The model is applied to the confluence zone of the Gam River and mouth of Nakdong River. For model calibration, the result of the unsteady flow analysis is compared with the Typhoon 'Rusa' data. In addition, the runoff analysis was conducted for the determination of the project flood and the flood forecasting. The simulation results presented the characteristics of two dimensional flow with velocity vector and flow depth. The sediment transport characteristics are shown in terms of sediment concentration as well as bed elevation change. Accordingly, the SMS model in this study turned out to be very effective tool for the simulation of the hydrodynamic characteristics under the various flow conditions and corresponding sediment transports in natural rivers.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.104-112
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• 2013

This study investigates the structural analysis result with vibration and fatigue on 3 kinds of bicycle saddle models. When the static load applies on the upper plane of model, maximum stress becomes within the allowable stress in case of model 1. As the value of Stress or deformation becomes lower on the order of model types 1, 2 and 3, these models become more stabilized or safer at durability in this order. On the vibration analysis, model type 1 has the maximum stress or deformation more than 5 times by comparing with model type 1 or 2. Model type 1 becomes most excellent on vibration durability. As maximum displacement due to vibration happens in case of model type 3, it becomes unstabilized. But the stresses of model types 1, 2 and 3 become within the allowable stress and these models are considered to be safe. At the status of the severest fatigue load, model type 3 becomes safer than model type 1 or 2. This study result is applied with the design of safe bicycle saddle and it can be useful to improve the durability by predicting prevention against the deformation due to its vibration and fatigue.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.17-22
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• 2014

The stress between work piece and end mill at the use of end mill at machining and the structural deformation due to the and the pressure are investigated by simulation analysis of three end mill models in this study. These results are achieved with structural and fatigue analyses. Model 1 has the deformation less than model 2 or model 3. As the maximum equivalent stress of model 1 is shown to become the least among all models, model 1 can endure the highest load by comparing with other models. It is useful to estimate the damage prevention and the durability by applying this study result into the design of end mill.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.147-152
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• 2010

Project implementation plan is a blueprint that confirms project performance activities and specifies required man-hour, period and resource imput ratio. Various figures, the results of implementation plan, are predicted through estimation, and because of superiority of objectivity and repeatability, numerical formula-based estimation model is often used overseas. COCOMO model is the representative estimation model whose theories and formulas are publicized and it predicts the total man-hour required for software system development. This model is publicized in "Software Engineering Economics" written by Professor Barry Boehm of the U.S., and is the most widely applied numerical formula-based estimation model. This study is conducted to provide a series of methods that are optimal for KTDS environment by choosing COCOMO II model among various types of COCOMO models. In establishing implementation plan, COCOMO II model alone is not sufficient, it is necessary to link with and apply standard WBS system and standard man-hour. In establishing specific implementation plan, phased standard WBS system in order of the first phase of all the activities implemented in the project, Activity, Task, and Role, and the man-hour put into this should be distributed according to standard ratio from COCOMO II model's total man-hour. This study provides explainations by establishing standard WBS system and linking with COCOMO II model.