• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.581-591
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• 2023

North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

• Special Issue of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• 2015.09a
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• pp.69-73
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• 2015

An evaluation of the accidental limit state (ALS) for design of a semi-submersible drilling rig is one of the essential design requirements as well as ultimate limit state (ULS) and fatigue limit state (FLS). This paper describes the ALS evaluation on the explosion accident at shale shaker room of semi-submersible drilling rig. There are three steps for the ALS evaluation such as structural analysis at concept design, risk based safety design and structural analysis at detailed design. For the ALS evaluation at concept design, conceptual explosion overpressure from the Rule guided by the classification society was used in the structural analysis that was carried out using LS-DYNA. To set up the design accidental load (DAL), explosion analysis was carried out using FLACS taking safety barriers into consideration. Then, the structural analysis was carried out applying DAL for the ALS evaluation at detailed design. Through the ALS evaluation on the explosion at shale shaker room, the importance of the risk based safety design was described.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.24-31
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• 1997

Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.6 no.7
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• pp.773-784
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• 1998

To assess the collapse risk of transmission line structures subject to natural hazards, it is important to identify what hazard may cause the structural collapse. In Australia and many other countries, a large proportion of failures of transmission line structures are caused by severe thunderstorms. Because the wind loads generated by thunderstorms are not only random but time-variant as well, a time-dependent structural reliability approach for the risk assessment of transmission line structures is essential. However, a lack of appropriate stochastic models for thunderstorm winds usually makes this kind of analysis impossible. The intention of the paper is to propose a stochastic model that could realistically and accurately simulate wind loading due to severe thunderstorms. With the proposed thunderstorm model, the collapse risk of transmission line structures under severe thunderstorms is assessed numerically based on the computed failure probability of the structure.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.76 no.2
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• pp.193-205
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• 2020

The growing need for assuring efficient and sustainable investments in civil engineering structures has determined a renovated interest in the rational design of such structures from designers, clients and authorities. As a result, risk-informed decision-making methodologies are increasingly being used as a direct decision tool or as an upper-level layer from which performance-based approaches are then calibrated against. One of the most important and challenging aspects of today's structural design is to adequately handle the system-level effects, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. These aspects revolve around assessing and evaluating relevant damage scenarios, namely those involving unacceptable/intolerable damage levels. Hence, the importance of risk analysis of disproportionate collapse, and along with it of robustness. However, the way robustness has been used in modern design codes varies substantially, from simple provisions of prescriptive rules to complex risk analysis of the disproportionate collapse. As a result, implementing design for robustness is still very much a grey area and more so when it comes to defining means to quantify robustness. This paper revisits the most common robustness frameworks, highlighting their merits and limitations, and identifies one among them which is very promising as a way forward to solve the still open challenges.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.346-353
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• 2002

The risk of bearing failure is evaluated through the seismic response analysis of a bridge considering the probabilistic characteristics of structural properties such as the mass of superstructure, the stiffness of pier, and the translational and rotational stiffness of the foundation as well as seismic loadings during the bridge service lift. The effect of pounding between adjacent vibration units on the risk of bearing failure is also investigated. The probabilistic characteristics of structural properties are obtained by the Monte Carlo simulations based on the probabilistic characteristics of basic random variables included in the structural properties. From the simulation results, the failure probability of fixed bearings attached on the abutment is found to be much higher than those placed on the piers. It is also found that the pounding effect significantly increases the failure probability of bearings. In the simply supported bridges, the risk of bearing failure increases as the number of bridge spans increase. Therefore, the failure probability of fixed bearing due to the effects of pounding phenomena and the number of bridge spans should be considered in the seismic desist of bearings.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.473-480
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.553-561
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• 2009

Risk analysis of highway sign supporting structures and sound barriers was done. Stochastic wind load was modeled by using extreme value distribution from site measurement and the variability of structural parameters was considered. Limit state functions were defined to assess structural stability by wind and risk of highway facilities was analyzed by combining wind hazard. According to the numerical analysis results, sound barrier post shows significantly higher risk than highway sign supporting structures. This is caused by the fact that the design codes of the structures are different. To distribute wind induced risk in highway structures, unification and improvement of design codes are required based on risk assessment.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.9-17
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• 2016

Vehicle collision to bridges has been known as one of the causes of bridge collapse, and the emergency plans and disaster management has been recently emphasized to secure public safety. This study conducted risk assessment of vehicular collision to bridges for highway bridges in Korea. Risk assessment consists of three steps; preliminary risk analysis(PRA), simplified risk analysis(SRA) and detailed risk analysis(DRA). The PRA firstly screens out the possibility of occurrence of the event. The SRA identifies influencial factors to risk of the event and evaluates risk scores to determine risk levels and necessity of DRA that investigates the risk of the bridge in detail. This study focuses on the methodology of the risk assessment, especially the SRA, and the stratification methods which evaluate risk levels of vehicular collision. The analysis results were compared to the reported vehicular collision accidents. The proposed method can be utilized in similar disaster management area.