• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1990.10a
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• pp.22-27
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• 1990

Since an eigenvalue problem in structural analysis has been recognized as an important process for the assessment of structural strength, it is usually to be carried out the eigenvalue analysis or buckling analysis of structures when the compression behabiour of the member is dorminant. In general, various variables involved in the eigenvalue problem have also shown their variability. So it is natural to apply the probabilistic analysis into such problem. Since the limit state equation for the eigenvalue analysis or buckling reliability analysis is expressed implicitly in terms of random variables involved, the probabilistic finite element method is combined with the conventional reliability method such as MVFOSM and AFOSM for the determination of probability of failure due to buckling. The accuracy of the results obtained by this method is compared with results from the Monte Carlo simulations. Importance sampling method is specially chosen for overcomming the difficulty in a large simulation number needed for appropriate accurate result. From the results of the case study, it is found that the method developed here has shown good performance for the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safety of the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safely of frame structure which might be collapsed by either yielding or buckling.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1989.10a
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• pp.34-39
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• 1989

Recent trends in design standards development have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability analysis adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design Process arid placing it on a consistent reliability based for various construction materials. This study is proposed in the reliability analysis of plane frame structures using second-order moment method(Level-II they). Lind-Hasofer's minimum distance method is use in the derivation of an mathematical algorithm as well as an determination of Correlation cofficients, reliability index and total reliability index depending on the multiple failure modes. In addition. This study is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis. Results of the numerincal analysis showed that the difference between the reliability index of the failure probability of the multiple failure modes and the total reliability index of the failure probability with the simultaneous failure modes deviated nearly 3∼10% depending on tile performance functions.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.161-168
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• 2004

This study describes the behavior and failure probability of basic structural member in case of fire for the research of safety assessment on onshore structure. Fire safety assessment can be done by comparing fire resistance of members with fire severity of heat load For more Practical applications, the commercial structural analysis program is linked with the in-house code and gets the limiting temperature by analyzing structural strength of member with elasto-plastic analysis and large deflection analysis. AFOSM method is utilized to obtain the failure probability against the fire. The examples of rather simple structures such as beams and plates are applied to explain and verify the procedure of fire safety assessment.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.49-64
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• 2015

This paper presents a method for assessing the risk of wave run-up and overtopping of existing coastal defences and for analysing the probability of failure of the structures under future hydraulic conditions. The recent UK climate projections are employed in the investigations of the influence of changing environments on the long-term performance of sea defences. In order to reduce the risk of wave run-up and overtopping caused by rising sea level and to maintain the present-day allowances for wave run-up height and overtopping discharge, the future necessary increase in crest level of existing structures is investigated. Various critical failure mechanisms are considered for reliability analysis, i.e., erosion of crest by wave overtopping, failure of seaside revetment, and internal erosions within earth sea dykes. The time-dependent reliability of sea dykes is analysed to give probability of failure with time. The results for an example earth dyke section show that the necessary increase in crest level is approximately double of sea level rise to maintain the current allowances. The probability of failure for various failure modes of the earth dyke has a significant increase with time under future hydraulic conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.804-811
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• 2010

The fatigue crack propagation is stochastic in nature, because the variables affecting the fatigue behavior are random and have uncertainty. Therefore, the fatigue life prediction is critical for the design and the maintenance of many structural components. In this study, fatigue experiments are conducted on the specimens of magnesium alloy AZ31 under various conditions such as thickness of specimen, the load ratio and the loading condition. The probability distribution fit to the fatigue failure life are investigated through a probability plot paper by these conditions. The probabilities of failure at various conditions are also estimated. The fatigue design life is predicted by using the Weibull distribution.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.425-436
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• 2018

The design of seismically isolated structures considering the stochastic nature of excitations, base isolators' design parameters, and superstructure properties requires robust reliability analysis methods to calculate the failure probability of the entire system. Here, by applying artificial neural networks, we proposed a robust technique to accelerate the estimation of failure probability of equipped isolated structures. A three-story isolated building with susceptible facilities is considered as the analytical model to evaluate our technique. First, we employed a sensitivity analysis method to identify the critical sources of uncertainty. Next, we calculated the probability of failure for a particular set of random variables, performing Monte Carlo simulations based on the dynamic nonlinear time-history analysis. Finally, using a set of designed neural networks as a surrogate model for the structural analysis, we assessed once again the probability of the failure. Comparing the obtained results demonstrates that the surrogate model can attain precise estimations of the probability of failure. Moreover, our proposed approach significantly increases the computational efficiency corresponding to the dynamic time-history analysis of the structure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.74-80
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• 2013

This study describes structural reliability analysis of actively-controlled structure for which random vibration analysis is incorporated into the first-order reliability method (FORM) framework. The existing approaches perform the reliability analysis based on the RMS response, whereas the proposed study uses the peak response for the reliability analysis. Therefore, the proposed approach provides us a meaningful performance measure of the active control system, i.e., realistic failure probability. In addition, it can deal with the uncertainties in the system parameters as well as the excitations in single-loop reliability analysis, whereas the conventional random vibration analysis requires double-loop reliability analysis; one is for the system parameters and the other is for stochastic excitations. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a numerical example where the proposed approach shows fast and accurate reliability (or inversely failure probability) assessment results of the dynamical active control system against random seismic excitations in the presence of parametric uncertainties of the dynamical structural system.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.92 no.1
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• pp.111-120
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• 2024

Sampling methods are powerful approaches to solving the problems of structural reliability analysis and estimating the failure probability of structures. In this paper, a new sampling method is proposed offering lower variance and lower computational cost for complex and high-dimensional problems. The method is called Optimal Latinized partially stratified sampling (OLPSS) as it is based upon the Latinized Partially Stratified Sampling (LPSS) which itself is based on merging Stratified Sampling (SS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) algorithms. While LPSS has a low variance, it may suffer from a lack of good space-filling of its generated samples in some cases. In the OLPSS, this issue has been resolved by employing a new columnwise-pairwise exchange optimization procedure for sample generation. The efficiency of the OLPSS has been tested and reported under several benchmark mathematical functions and structural examples including structures with a large number of variables (e.g., a structure with 67 variables). The proposed method provides highly accurate estimates of the failure probability of structures with a significantly lower variance relative to the Monte Carlo simulations, Latin Hypercube, and standard LPSS.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.656-662
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• 1991

endocarditis, 1.475% /pt-yr, overall valve failure, 3.319% /pt-yr; and primary tissue failure, 1.475% /pt-yr. The actuarial probability of survival was 94.3$\pm$3.6% and the probability of freedom from thromboembolism 90.6$\pm$4.6% at 11 years after surgery respectively. And, the probability of freedom from primary tissue failure was 60.4$\pm$16.9% also at 11 years The evidence of possible premature and accelerated failure of the pericardial valve in the aortic position among the young population was not clear on the age-related analysis of the structural failure, and no suggestion could be made to indicate age limit when the use of the pericardial valve would better be avoided.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2018

Wind damage of urban trees arises to be a serious issue especially in the typhoon-prone areas. As a family of tree species widely-planted in Southeast China, the structural behaviors of Plane tree is investigated. In order to accommodate the complexities of tree morphology, a fractal theory based finite element modeling method is proposed. On-site measurement of Plane trees is performed for physical definition of structural parameters. It is revealed that modal frequencies of Plane trees distribute in a manner of grouped dense-frequencies; bending is the main mode of structural failure. In conjunction with the probability density evolution method, the fragility assessment of urban trees subjected to wind excitations is then proceeded. Numerical results indicate that small-size segments such as secondary branches feature a relatively higher failure risk in a low wind level, and a relatively lower failure risk in a high wind level owing to windward shrinks. Besides, the trunk of Plane tree is the segment most likely to be damaged than other segments in case of high winds. The failure position tends to occur at the connection between trunk and primary branches, where the logical protections and reinforcement measures can be implemented for mitigating the wind damage.